Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan GK
Some good analysis here, thanks. You and another poster both said this is a "check back" spot but I am OOP in this hand. I don't think that changes much though, and it actually may tilt Villain to having less bluffs. Players are less likely to bluff raise their draws in position and may be more likely to slowplay their flopped value when IP.
I overlooked that you were in the SB.
When I'm OOP as the PFR, I'm usually starting out with a check on the flop, rather than c-betting.
I could go either way on this board. I don't mind the flop checking through and keeping the pot small when we're OOP. We can sometimes check-raise if he bets, or make a delayed c-bet on turn if he checks back. If we check and he bets, we can just take a check-call line and bluff-catch with AK here, unless we make the nuts.
There are hands we can get value from. But the board is so wet that V could call with a lot of draws. And it's hard for our hand to improve in a way that doesn't also improve some of V's hands.
If we c-bet, he could call with all his JT, all his Ax, all his Qx, and all his flush draws. He could already be ahead with AQo, A3, 33, etc. If we're going to c-bet, it should probably be with top 2 or better, which we're going to have less often.
When we bet less frequently, with a more thick value, we can go bigger. If we're just making a range bet, it should be smaller. If we take that smaller sizing on the flop, we can barrel the turn when we improve, or check when the turn card helps our opponent's range more than ours, and changes the nuts.
When he calls the 3/4 pot bet on the flop, it narrows his range to hands that have a piece of the board with some chance to improve if he's not already ahead. We're not going to have very much KT in our range when we raise out of the SB and c-bet the flop, so we should probably just check on the J turn.
Something I try to remember to do before betting in a marginal spot is stop and ask myself if I can continue if my opponent puts in a big raise.