History, Mon midnite, I am viewed tag, only showed down 54s for big pot with flush. Villain is thinking player, pf raises, calls raises in pos, limps... Has not shown bluff and has shown down big hands. Don't have much more as I'm somewhat new (about 90 min) and have not seen a ton from him as opposed to other guys. Eff stacks 275

Utg limps, hero raises to 12 w aks, villain calls, all else fold.

Flop (29- rake). Aj5 rainbow. Hero loves punishment and checks. Not my standard. villain bets 15, I call

Turn (59). 7c. Hero checks assuming V shuts it down, but he bets 38 stone faced. My hand is too strong to fold, hate raising here, I call. I still think my hand is good, I beat a lot.

River (135) Qc (this puts 3 flush cards on board). Hero checks expecting check back. Villain bets 85. Hero?

Clearly this line has put men in a world of hurt. I had a lot of options in this hand and i didn't expect this much pressure by checking flop. I'm starting to think he either:

1) had me on the flop and knew I was strong when in ch/c so he bets big on turn to set up big river bet

2: his hand improved and he knows I'm strong when i call turn.

Thoughts?

I think your hand is underreped here. How can villain put you on a hand as strong as AK when all you do is c/c all the way? I think between the possibility that villain could be value betting a worse hand, and the possibility that he is bluffing, it's a call. At worst, you put in $150 into a raised pot with TPTK, probably a little more than you would want in a situation like this, but likely still profitable.

I definitely don't think he had you beat on the flop or turn. Look at his bet sizing its so small...

I also don't think he is putting you on an ace.

I think his most likely hand in this spot is AQ, and he made 2 pair on the river. But, this can also very easily be a bluff.

I think its 50/50 that your beat or that he is bluffing.

Conclusion = Call

Lets address villains range. First question..I see villain has position. Is he MP or LP. It would make a difference in his calling range. We noted that villain usually only plays value-type hands. In that case, what is he betting that we beat? (looks like std value line to me)

We beat A10 and all worse aces. We lose to AJ/AQ. All within his range due to you flop check. Did he snap bet?

I'd use his line if I flopped a set of jacks all day.

We only really beat air or a badly played J10 type hand.

As played i call without reads but we are probably only good here 25% of the time

grunch

I dont mind checking the flop as long as your plan is to bet the turn and river for value. As played, the river is definitley a b/f for value. your hand is waaaaay underepped and with the back door flush coming in you are not getting raised by worse.

Why did you check?

If it was to induce then call ldo.

And if you don't know why you checked it is probably a good idea to take the most standard ABC line in the future.

IMO there are 2 too many checks in this line. As played I'm certainly calling here. Pretty bad river, but I can see enough scenerios where we're good.
Also, QQ and KK certainly seem like part of our range: the former is a c/r on the river the second is a c/f so I am inclined to think two pair (AJ) might be checking the river behind us.

If we're taking a passive line postflop (which I have no problem with) then I think we have to call the river bet since our hand was fairly underrepped from the flop. Really depends on how bluffy/aggro villain is though: the more bluffy/aggro the villain is, the more likely I'm taking this check/call line.

GcluelessNLnoobG

*Grunch
B/c OTF. AP call OTR.

You really should have bet flop, and then you DEFINITELY should have bet the turn. Your opponent is giving action to your strong hand. Go fire 3/4 of the pot at them. Make them show you if they have a power hand before you stack off $85 to it on the river.

River is a call to me. You're ahead of enough in his rather wide range here.

Perhaps our opponent is only giving us action because we meakly checked the flop, and is bluffing with a wide range of hands that would have folded to a flop bet on this board.

GthemeakshallinheritthepokerG

Without reading past your initial description of villain this looks like a turbo-muck. But when I read further.

Flop check is fine, IMO. I think call is fine.

Turn is fine.

River is fine to call.

My concern is he can be doing this with AK/AQ. Of course you can be beat here a lot. But there are hands in his range that you still beat. AJ is also likely.

^Disagree completely on flop bet. It leads to some real problems on the turn. Why build a pot for villain. Why try to scare away hands we beat?

I prefer to keep pot as small as possible (hard to do OOP) and get to showdown cheaply.