Hi all,

5/10, hero opens utg AKo (diamond spade) to $25, two callers Btn and bb. $1300 eff.

Flop ($80): K32hh. Hero $50, Btn calls.

Turn ($180): 2c. Hero $180, Btn calls.

River ($540): 2h. Hero $375, V sighs and jams for another $650 or so. V looks eastern euro older (50/60s) wearing an EarPod. The only other hand I saw him play that went to showdown he flopped 442 with 42 and got paid off.

Thanks,
DT

Close to 3:1


Probably chopping. But always a chance it’s some weird spew bluff.


2h is on board. So, he didn’t float flop with something like A2hh flush draw.

So, he either made a ridiculously optimistic float with just bottom pair, or he has K2s or 32s.

I’d probably call this off based on flop float with the 2h on the board.

If no 2h, I’d have to think more about it.

What was the suit of the 2 on flop?

If it's 2c.....I think that pushes us even more into a call.



That would mean he didn't float the flop with A2c for the backdoor flush draw. Since the 2c is on turn.


We also have Ad and Ks. So, no A2dd or K2ss.


So, we are moving closer and closer to quads meaning he floated pretty ridiculous with bottom pair for over half pot cbet. It's possible since K and two low cards. But it would definitely be pretty optimistic with two more streets to face possible barreling.

Hero can choose between a greedy line on flop OR turn, it really doesn't make sense to go so large on both.

River is probably just a fold, I don't think many villains these stakes turn worse 1ps into bluff.. as played river I prefer block bet or check.

I might just check the river - I don't think we get more value from under pairs, maybe a flush draw will bluff or some other hand will get wacky here. As played I think this is just an in game decision based on your live reads - live games play so specific and unbalanced I don't think there's much to add.

That sigh/shove is such a strength tell.

Yeah not happy about getting shoved on the river. We'd have to be hoping for a chop or a flush misreading the board.
In addition to the somewhat unlikely quads, 33 and AA also beat us

Psb on the turn seems a bit much

Has anyone put this into a solver? I thought this was the sort of turn to bet large on. What am I missing. We can get value from all worse Kx and underpairs that want to hero.

There is a flush draw we unblock, I think that's reason enough to bet bigger. We also have a big range and nut advantage on K-high flops so we can put max pressure.

River if he had a flush draw he got there are we're targeting those hands and the underpairs that got sticky. I think we would have heard from 33/22 on the flop, no?

When did boats not become value hands? Yeesh! I must be rusty.

I would bet smaller on flop, pretty dry and your range adv. holds up a lot.

I don't mind turn, might even be good to go bigger.

I would check river though, planning to call.

After we bet it looks annoyingly strong to shove, and the sigh shove is usually a reverse tell but I can see some people doing both with a K (assuming any K is the nuts).
The biggest problem is that it's never a worse hand, but you might well be chopping 90%+ of the time. With the A blocking A2 and AA, I probably sigh call it off a lot. In theory we also unblock hearts (but I doubt many do this with hh).

I think if we are betting river we'd want to shove, but I don't think we should do it with this hand. Just AA (unblocking Kx) and quads (not sure what to do if we ever have 33 here).

Go much smaller on the river 25-30% of the pot, you're trying to get called by a flush and you chop w/Kx. That sigh call is likely a strength tell, I think you can muck, doubt this guy is trying to fold you off a chop on that board

think bombing turn and river was probably a mistake

The good old sigh/shove -- so strong. However, if he knows you saw the 42 hand, maybe he's using it? Honestly, it's hard to tell from a computer what to do, but it feels like a gross fold. At best we are chopping.

Not sure why you went so big on turn? Edit: just read. I still don't go that big -- I want him calling incorrectly, but I don't want to chase him away.

Considering not much is calling river, I go smaller there, too, or check and hope he bluffs.

I think river im check/calling or betting like 80$ planning to call a non ridiculous raise.

I'd probably rather c/c here as it allows V to bluff.

Would feel better if it was 3332 (I ran into similar situation yesterday with 66 on a 688 flop 8 turn in a 3 bet pot and pretty easily folded to a large turn bet he showed AA). But now, we are losing to 33 and any 2 and chopping K. 3h on the flop so this is not a whiffed flush and honestly I can't find any bluffs other than air. V has shown strength by calling huge bets every street. I think 33 is his most likely holding here unless old dude can just put you on a K or AA and just jam away knowing you will never have a 2 and can fold for 65bb.


To summarize, V called big bets flop and turn. If he had a flush draw he has 100% air now and would have to be bluffing air into a likely full house. If he has A3 or 44-QQ he's likely calling river or folding. He's probably calling Kx. Only leaves 33 and 2x in his most likely range.