Join Date: May 2023
Posts: 1,431
I could be wrong about everything here, so take this FWIW.
I think GTO says we should check or bet very small on the flop, because multiway, and / or because we're checking 100 or c-betting 100, and if it's c-bet 100, it's for a small size, even smaller multi-way.
If we're not c-betting 100, and only c-betting at a low frequency, we're supposed to go bigger, but I think that's more for heads-up play, not multi-way.
This 1/3 pot sized c-bet doesn't seem likely to accomplish much beyond getting folds from hands that would have folded to a smaller bet, or calls from hands that would also call a larger bet, and in those scenarios, we'll often be behind bottom/middle set or top 2P.
Exploitatively, her mannerism is a tell. It's either genuine, because she caught a big a piece of the flop, or fake, because she wants us to think she did so we'll check back and let her draw on the cheap.
Most likely, it's genuine, and she doesn't realize we're paying attention to her reactions. There aren't many obvious draws that would be worried about having to call a flop c-bet. No flush draws, and the straight draws are just 4-outers.
If she's thinking on the "fake tell with my ISSD to induce a check from TPTK" level, she's probably also on the "donk-bluff with my ISSD" level, which brings us to the turn...
Turn card is a pretty big brick. Her donk lead for 1/6 pot doesn't make a ton of sense, but the most likely explanation is she has top 2 or bottom set and is just milking us for value. If she has AJ, she blocks AA and JJ, so there aren't too many hands we can rep that would raise here.
Not sure what better hands we'd expect she might fold. Like, doubtful she's folding AJ or 44 if we raise, and if she's doing this with KQ, is she folding that now? Are we just going to jam to rep AA?
We can't fold to this sizing, obviously, but at this point I think we're just calling and hoping the river is a K, or brings in a straight draw and she checks, not that we'd be attempting to bluff her off 2P or a set if that happens.
Her scowl at the river card is also likely genuine, a sign that she's wondering if we got here with KQ. If she's worried about KQ, she has a hand that was most likely ahead, like top 2 or a set, and isn't really "bluffing" when she jams. She's just decided that she's going with her hand and we're getting her money if we got here with KQ.
If all her tells are fake, then her most likely holding is KQ. Either way, I have no idea what we're beating here if we call her jam.