1/3 NLHE

V - Late twenties white guy. Have never played with him before and have been with him for an hour at the table. Bought in for the max - 500 - and thought he was going to be a pretty good player by the way he carried himself but then he started loosening up and getting a bit tilty and bled down to about 150-200, then tripled up with JJ AI pre against AK and 99. VPIPing about 18% over this small sample size, hasn't shown any bluffs or gotten out of line but just calls a bit pre and folds post to a cbet sometimes. 580$, CO.

H - Has been winning and running it up and covers the whole table with over 2k. On V's immediate right in HJ.

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Loose tilted losing player that H has 3-bet multiple times tonight opens straight to 10 from MP when folded to (this guy has previously called Hero's 3-bets with T6s OOP, and has been seen opening as wide as A2o, T6s, 44 etc), Hero looks down at A K and raises to 35, V cold 4-bets to 100 off 580, folds back to initial losing player who folds, Hero thinks we're too deep to gii here and decides this guy is not bluffing as cold 4-bets at our game are usually KK+ AK. So I just call. HU OOP.

Flop 210 (480 back) - J J 6

Hero x planning x/r, V x back.

Turn 210 (480 back) - 2

Hero bets 130, V calls (live tell is that he doesn't like it, sighing and seeming unhappy, could be reverse tell though).

River 470 (350 back) - 9

Hero?

Well he doesn't have AK with a diamond

Your options are bet really small to target AA and KK (maybe even a hero call from AK once in a blue moon), or jam to target QdQ and the occasional AJ

Probably jam and get called by JJ

I don't like the pre-flop reasoning. If we want to go with our live reads of super tight cold 4 bet ranges, then a fold is perfectly acceptable. I would prefer a min 5 bet and fold. Flatting oop just seems like the worst option.

As played, just open jam river. SPR is too low to get fancy.

With the Ace *and* King of diamonds, we need to check this and give V a chance to bluff. (We would bet if we just had the Ace of diamonds.)

Never folding, of course.

If cold 4bets are never light (which they never are at my table either) and we're mostly up against KK+/AK, I think this is probably just a sigh fold preflop, no? We can't be putting in a hugenormous 1/6th of our stack just hoping to hit a flush/straight. Otherwise A high flops win us very little against KK and lose us a bunch against AA, similar for K high flops, and on whiffed flops he wins with a cbet (even when he has AK). Even if we're in a flippy situation we'll be OOP (more difficult to realize our IO and prevent RIO).

Think I'm cool with a check/shove plan on this flop.

With an SPR of 2ish and us having the nut flush, I'm pretty sure I'm going broke on the turn/river almost no matter what happens. So I also bet the turn to setup a river shove.

Interesting river spot, IMO. Even though we only have a 3/4 PSB left, is he really calling a shove with anything? The best flush he can have is QdQx and would he really check back that vulnerable a hand on the flop? Can he really pay off with AA when any diamond / Jx beats him? But is he ever going to turn any overpair / no flush into a bluff against Jx? Unlikely, mostly he'll just check back all his lame overpair hands and hope for the best. But does this mean the only time he bets the river when checked to is when he has JJ? Honestly, I probably just shove, but there might be arguments for doing something else.

GcluelessNLnoobG

One of my tells which seems to be credible is if the guy's gonna sit there and milk his $150 stack without re-upping, then his cold 4bet range is gonna be extremely narrow so we can fold to the 4bet, I don't think it's being too nitty.

As played, the only hand in his range that beats us is jacks and he's probably checking everything else back. If he called the turn, he's probably calling the river. It does sound like he hollywooded, but thankfully it's only a three quarter psb left but I would bet/c like 175 since higher bets might fold out worse.

I think flatting pf is probably best. Pretty sure he would also 4bet QQ and not only AA/KK.

Weird flop check back from him.

As played I probably bet around 185-200.
I think that size puts his non diamond over pairs in the toughest spot and also gets the money from Qd at a high frequency.

I'd just muck PF. Cold 4bets are just super nutted. If he has Queens or AK God bless him. But you're oop and likely crushed.

As played, just bet $130 again on the river, the people saying to jam are quite bad since villain can't have AA or KK with a diamond.

i think hes pretty inelastic on the turn given your exact cards so id either bet an amount AK no d can call (like 30) or id go bigger targetting pairs. i understand this is geometric but we really want to price him in otr. river dont jam unless hes true non believer

I think this is the best advice, I was trying to think of sizing across turn and river. Do I wanna go small-small, small-big, big-small or big-big (aka. AI).

Never even considered folding pre but maybe that is the best.

I opted for big-big in the moment - Result:

Regarding results

Yeah, I guess for these relatively large $$$ amounts for a 1/3 NL game that perhaps we should be super careful of our river sizing? Like if the pot was $80 then obviously we'd 100% be betting 3/4 PSB of $60 rather than 1/4 PSB of $20 because there is 0% difference in calling frequency for this amount of lol $. But probably quite a lot difference in calling frequency for $120 versus $350, even though the pot percentages are exactly the same.

GcluelesssizingnoobG

The key is to put the villain on a range (which gets narrowed down street by street) and then bet as much as you think he would call with that range (and with his reads if we know him).

The interesting things is that "as much as you think he would call" looks to be in terms of $$$ and not percentage of pot.

GcluelessNLnoobG

It's six and one half dozen of the other