$2/$5 NL

UTG ($800) limps. Hes a very fishy calling station type guy. Very annoying guy whos been slow rolling people and laughing at them when he outdraws them.

EP limps...not important

Hero ($900) raises to $25 with AcKs

BB ($325) Complete whale. Dumps a few buy ins every time he plays. Lost $500 on his first hand today and is stuck more than that.

UTG, EP and BB call the raise so we go 4 to the flop

Flop (100) QcJc9c BB leads $25. UTG raises to $75. EP folds

Action to Hero. BB could have just about any hand that remotely connects with this flop. Something like Q4 or Jx7c is not out of the question. UTG is a station who chases flushes, calls decent size bets with middle pair trying to hit his 2nd pair and things like that. His raise here tells me he probably has a small flush, or 2 pair. Possibly 99.

I seriously doubt UTG is folding to a raise. If I call, BB could shove with a variety of hands although hes more of a passive whale than a maniac. What do you do here?

After typing this out, it seems like a ridiculously easy call. Not sure why it wasnt so easy at the table.

Bigger pre

I'm not raising vs that description

Probably calling but I don't think it's vastly better than folding in theory

Actually if he's sitting there slowrolling it up then i 100% spite call

what is your position in the hand?

Raise more pre.

When a station raises, he's probably already got it. Calling sucks and the station's not folding if we raise.

fold

I think I was in late MP (just before the HJ)....but I have position post flop.

Seems like call>fold>raise. Based on your description of the BB it seems likely he will call, and if he does it means we are getting pretty direct odds on our flush draw.

More pre, assuming both BB and UTG will call large preflop raises with worse hands. Never, ever folding as played. You should expect both villains to stick around and you have the IO to call and hit your hand.

That's the main question. Do I really?

If UTG already has a flush, I have only 7 outs so about 15% to hit it on the turn. If I do hit it, its going to be very obvious and there's a good chance I wont make anything other than whats in the pot already. I'll ignore BB because hes a wild card and I really have no idea what he will do. Assuming he folds, Im calling $75 to win $200 which is not good enough if I dont get paid off when I hit. If I miss the turn and he does have a flush my guess is he bets about $150 and I will have to fold.

Now he may not have a flush so all if that could be way off. He could also have a set or 2 pair and I could hit the flush and lose a big pot.

I guess if I add in hands like KcQx then I can call easily. Im just not sure if that's in his range here. Preflop sure, but I dont know if he would raise a donk bet with that hand. Seems like he would just call.

Crying, but, I'm calling.

It's not really a monster draw.

Since you say BB's range is so bad, I call.

If BB was even remotely decent, you'd be forced to fold.

we're only 25% vs a flush from UTG and a third club is going to kill the action and kill IO. It's 75 to call and the pot is 200. I don't expect a station to be raising draws.

Lulz, don't know what I was thinking, but yeah it's a standard grumpy ass fold.

If whale was deeper and we knew he was capable of drawing here with like Kc or Tc and paying us off. I'd be all on it

Against these players with all the variables, I call and see a turn. Seems as if UTG could have more than a flush. Raising BB's tiny bet is not that strong of a move. Now, if BB had made a normal bet and UTG had raised, I might find a fold.

If BB shoves and UTG calls/raises, I fold.

Fold because the 8c, Tc, Kc could be dirty which is huge.

Grunching,

After constructing reasonable ranges based on your reads, you have ~35% equity...certainly more than BB and less than UTG. I'm not worried about a BB shove if he's passive. That will let me know I am drawing to only my club outs, which need to be discounted down to 6-7 if he does shove. Although he could have a straight, giving us 2 additional clean outs.

The question is, and this isn't clear from reads in the OP, "Will UTG pound non club, non T turns?" If yes, then I want to raise now. $200 seems like a good amount. The best response to this is that he calls and then checks to us on all turns. But I suppose we'll just have to GII if he ships.

If no, I like a call given that we need 37% equity to make a profitable call here and we're close to that and expect to win more if we hit, BB is passive, and UTG is a station, so we can get paid if we hit as he draws to boats/quads/SF's or even pays off with a worse hand.

I'm not surprised to see that I'm wrong about raising according to consensus. I feel like I'm too overaggressive in these spots. I need to work on that. But I don't agree with folding due to lack of IO. Even if he's only raising made hands here, our reads tell us he will try to outdraw us if we hit turn. And he may see a river bet/raise, if we hit there, as a bluff because he's a station. Am I wrong on this point?

This is a very good point which I didnt even think about during the hand.

This is a great point. Our flush draw here isn't as nutted as it looks at first, and is obvious when it comes in.

Definitely a good point. Still not sure I fold, but I can be a station in these spots against these types of players.

This will make the thread anti-climatic but I did fold the flop. It felt a little dirty though.

I think its a fold for sure really, not an enjoyable one but one I think you're better off making. I agree the straight flush possibilities definitely have an effect also since someone that flopped it could have the K, T or 8 of clubs and be taking those outs from you. In the end I don't see even the biggest calling stations willing to pay you off enough to just call and hope. You're way to deep for a shove I feel and think you just have to fold, not enough in there to fight over and not near enough equity in flatting.

I finally ran some numbers on villains' ranges. I estimate you have about 33% equity. The bulk of villains' ranges are two pair and TcXx.

You have position and should absolutely call to see a turn card. You can't eliminate tens and aces as outs (though definitely minimized). I'm guessing BB whale rarely 3bets with anything other than a made hand, which makes up a very small % of his range.

Cold calling $75 into a likely pot size of $250 is absolutely worth it. You usually get to see a turn card and all villains act again before making another decision. I have no idea why we wouldn't expect IO from a 'fishy calling station' and a whale if a club hits the turn.