5/5

V - Brazilian reg. Don't know much about him. Seems like a competent player.

~$1500 deep

Hero A K

limps, V (CO) raises to $25, Hero (BB) 3-bets to $90, V 4-bets to $210, Hero calls

Flop ($430)

K Q J

Check, check

Turn ($430) 3

Hero - ???

If I think he has AK, AA here most of the time, can I consider pushing him off those hands? Maybe I can even force him to fold JJ. For example, bet turn 1/3 pot and jam river.

Nobody is hero folding a set in a 4bp. Best you can do is push him off AA or a chop but thats really optimistic too. I would not be looking to do any betting at all here, probably not on river either.

Not much reason to bet. With SPR at 3 a set is not folding and you will have trouble getting AA or AK to fold. The hands that fold are villain's preflop bluffs but those are so unlikely to draw out on you that they don't matter. Worse, if you bet turn and villain shoves over your bet what do you do? Villain might get you off a chop or even bluff you out.

The board is so dangerous here that getting to the river as cheaply as possible would be my goal.

But once he x back is he capped? I mean, he probably bets the flop here with KK-QQ. And checking back indicates that he likely has AK or AA hands.

Yes. All of this. We can’t bluff. And there’s no point to. Check and decide.

Most likely he has AA/AK I agree, but possible he checks back sets if he thinks you are likely to try and bluff. Still dont think we should try to bluff.

Check flop, check turn, check river. Id probably call 1 bet but not 2, but depends on sizing and runout.

People check top set after 3 or 4 betting almost 100% of the time.

yeah check turn.

PRE - I don't like going to the flop OOP in a 4B pot with a premium hand that isn't AA. If it's KK/QQ, or AKs, I'm 5B'ing.

FLOP - check is fine. You literally beat nothing that should be in his pre-flop 4B'ing range, unless he's 4B'ing wide because of how deep you are. He should be c-betting small almost 100% of the time, and we can check-call.

TURN - BDFD doesn't concern me in a 4B pot, unless, again, we think V is 4B'ing wide pre, and he somehow gets here with AXss. He might. Maybe AQss, AJss, and A5ss are in his 4B'ing range. He's from Brazil. Have you seen what their women wear on the beach? This guy might be mucho macho.

I don't exactly disagree with the other comments. I'd expect this to get checked down to the river often enough. But there's a chance this guy puts in a big river bet to push us off a chop with AK, and I don't hate making a pre-emptive strike with a small bet here on the turn, when he checks back the flop.

The story you might be telling is, "I flopped a set with KK, but I think you could have AA, or maybe some AXss here, and I know my set is good, and I want to get more value, so I'm betting because I know you ain't got the stones."

If you bet turn small, it kind of freezes him. He really can't raise with anything. Even if he has KK or ATss, he won't want to let you off the hook. You could have ATs here, and flopped the joint.

If you bet turn small, and he calls, I'd bet river small again, and just fold to a raise.

If he's a reg all his 4b value got there, and his bluffs have a gutshot. He has the same hand as you sometimes too. I don't think we need to do any betting, i'd just check/call. Nobody except a giant under rolled fish is folding a set. He may fold AK chop or AA but not many combos of that left so it's not really worth it. I doubt a GTO-solver would start turning this hand into a bluff but I could be wrong.

Check the turn.

Try to get to SD, call a reasonable bet. kings will try to trap you, AK and AA would probably bet the flop. Don't turn your hand into a bluff.