Is it a bad idea to 4 bet fold AKs?

Here is my thinking on this, say we know that villian always 5 bet shoves AA AK KK and QQ to our 4 bet, but folds 88-JJ AT-AQ to our 4 bet.

Ex. The game is 1/2 eff stacks are 200bb+, hero raises AK OTB to $8, Vill (BB) raises to $25-%30, hero raises to $85, Vill folds (hero wins $34-$39) or Vill shoves QQ+ AKs (we lose $85)

Stove says that our hand equity is 37.669%

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.669% 28.81% 08.86% 7398573 2276490.00 { AcKc }
Hand 1: 62.331% 53.47% 08.86% 13733007 2276490.00 { QQ+, AKs }

So we would be facing to call a $325 to win a pot of $486, which we need 67% equity to call.

But lets say that BB 3 betting range is top 8.9%, { 88+, ATs+, KJs+, QJs, ATo+ }

Our equity here is 58.802%

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.802% 53.38% 05.42% 83180366 8445363.50 { AcKc }
Hand 1: 41.198% 35.78% 05.42% 55748571 8445363.50 { 88+, ATs+, KJs+, QJs, ATo+ }

So Vill folds 88-JJ all non paired hands other than AK. Vill 5 bets 32 combos. Vill folds 88 combos.

So in 120 same situations hero folds 88 times and 5 bets 32 times. We win
$2992-$3432 when he folds 88 times and lose $2720 the 32 times we 4 bet fold.

I feel like this is a major major winning play, depending on size of 3 bet from BB and size of your 4 bet. And this is strictly preflop raising and folding. If he flats his range there { QQ-88, ATs+, KJs+, QJs, ATo+ } then we are 61.32% against him going to the flop IP with us in charge of the pot.

Am I leveling myself or did I work this out correctly???

This is such a rare type of player at lowstakes that has a 3bet this wide that its almost not even worth studying this- there are much more important, easier ways to make the money. It may be slightly +ev, but only against a wider 3betting range.

Yeah this is very villain dependant but I do think that someone who has a wider 3 bet range that you encounter would make this a very profitable move since people are rarely shipping JJ- pre for 200bb

Especially in live play

This accomplishes 2 things

1.Villian has to define his hand even more

2.Gets more money into the pot when we have more equity and position

It can be both. I'm willing to believe you worked out the math correctly on 4-bet/folding against this range. The problem is you made an assumption about the 3betting range that no one, including you, should have any reason to believe is valid. That turns the analysis into a pure thought experiment.

Correct, this is hypothetical, but I do feel that the Vill 3b range is pretty close on being actual ranges of an aggressive player

why are we turning ace king into a bluff

so you are asking...is it worth it to put ourselves into a situation that we might be folding AKs on the button?

we're flipping or crushing vs all the hands that (you claim) he 3bet/folds so why not just call & play the hand in position? if you turn poker into a preflop guessing game you are relinquishing your positional advantage entirely, i dont like it

why try to squeak out a small +ev play here when you can call massively +ev?
theres no good reason to 4b/fold here IMO, I'd 4b/stack off about 10% of the time & call 90% of the time...and im not necessarily playing the flop fit or fold, you will be able to jam over c-bets on certain boards profitably, but only if you flat preflop & keep his weaker range in

additionally, if he ever 3b worse A's or K's then theres a million reasons to flat

also...if you 4b & he knows you could be 4 betting light...then the spr sets up where he can flat preflop & donk jam flops that he misses into you (& u really cant call) or if he hits he can just ch/call your c-bet

If you have a guy 3-betting OOP with this many dominated and potentially dominated hands, in deep stacked cash, wow. Flat and take a flop. I would enjoy playing the rest of the hand in position against him. There's no need to be 4-bet bluffing IP at low stakes NL.

IMO this will greatly increase variability while reducing profitability. Even if it somehow is +EV against someone's range, I would argue that flatting the 3-bet will be much more +EV.

This is wrong. You never need more than 50% equity to call an allin. I'm not sure exactly how you came up with the quoted numbers, but assuming stacks of $400, after your 3b to 85 you need roughly ~315/800 = 39% equity.

But 4-bet/folding AKs in pos seems like a pretty terrible play in general without some great reads on their tendencies (ie. 3bets super wide, only 5bets AA/KK). I'm not sure how you can have those reads as these situations are so rare in general. Just flatting the 3-bet is probably optimal vs most opponents.

My math must be off, just curious how you got the 315/800.

Stack size is 315 agreed, pot size is only 485 tho. So your adding the 315 to 485 and then coming up with the ratio? So its $to call/$in pot + $to call and not $to call/$in pot?

yes

So if we 4-bet, villain shoves 6 combos of hands that crush us, 6 combos of hands that we race with OR we fold out 24 combos that are slight favorites against us BUT also fold out about 36 combos of hands that have some serious Reverse Implied Odds against our hand.

If your assumptions above are correct than you cannot 4-bet AKs.

The only time you should 4-bet AKs is when you think you will get called by worse or fold out better. According to your assumptions it does not seem like a worse hand is calling and the better hands that fold are not that much better than AKs

So you raise 4-bet AK 120 times a year to make between 200-700$. Seems like you're not doing well w/ AK

What about the times your 4-bet gets flatted, which in lowstakes deep stacked NL is like 50%?

I'm sure you'd make more money against that range by flatting and seeing a flop in position 100%, but I'd flat 90% and 4 bet 10%- and I'd know when it's for value and when it's a semi-bluff.