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AJ: Value Bet River w/ Top Pair?

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05-10-2016 , 11:49 AM

danhendo888

self-banned

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 285

2/5 ten-handed
100 bbs effective
V1 (MP) 20s male, loose station.
V2 (SB) 70s male, LAG.

Hero (UTG) dealt A

raises to $20. Called by V1 and V2.

Flop (~$65) A

V2 checks, Hero bets $40, both Villains call

Turn ($185) Q

V2 checks, Hero bets $100, V1 folds, V2 calls.

River ($385) 8

V2 checks. Hero...?

If you value bet here, how much would you bet?

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05-10-2016 , 11:54 AM

Javanewt

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 13,444

$150, although "same bet" might work.

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05-10-2016 , 11:57 AM

MikeStarr

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 7,962

Unless Ive seen hm call all 3 streets with a rag ace I probably check behind. I would be afraid of the back door flush that hit.

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05-10-2016 , 12:03 PM

PokerisEZ

banned

Join Date: Apr 2016 Posts: 599

If you bet the river, you'll be getting a really good price to call it off if you're raised. As played, I kinda think you have to bet/fold, regardless of the price, so I'd go small. $100 again seems ok.

But I really hate this whole situation. We flopped top pair, ok-kicker, on a pretty dry board, with an SPR over 8. We got too much money in on this hand and now we're up the creek with only half a paddle.

This hand was only good for two streets of value, not three.

I would have checked the flop and then bet turn and river.

I also would have tried to limp in (if that's happening often at this table) or just fold pre-flop

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05-10-2016 , 12:24 PM

DeathCabForTootie

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 5,722

No clue whether or not to bet here because our "reads" are non-existent.

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05-10-2016 , 12:55 PM

PIK4CHU

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 1,584

Why are we raising UTG with AJo?

Why are we betting the turn into two callers when we are out of position?

Now we're in this weird spot where we have no idea where we are and if we bet and are raised, we are pretty much priced into an unhappy call.

I would just check.

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05-10-2016 , 12:57 PM

Javanewt

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 13,444

Quote:

Originally Posted by PIK4CHU

BTW, I agree with all of this, OP, but I did want to answer your direct question with my first post without getting into it

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05-10-2016 , 01:05 PM

iraisetoomuch

banned

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 37,815

$75 should get a crying call from all sorts of worse hands.

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05-10-2016 , 01:11 PM

DeathCabForTootie

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 5,722

Quote:

Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch

$75 should get a crying call from all sorts of worse hands.

OP described villain as "LAG", not sure if that means he'll x/r river as a bluff, hence why I didn't advocate betting small OTR.

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05-10-2016 , 01:25 PM

#10

iraisetoomuch

banned

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 37,815

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$150, although "same bet" might work.

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Unless Ive seen hm call all 3 streets with a rag ace I probably check behind. I would be afraid of the back door flush that hit.

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$75 should get a crying call from all sorts of worse hands.

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OP described villain as "LAG", not sure if that means he'll x/r river as a bluff, hence why I didn't advocate betting small OTR.

All of these different answers are all correct really, even though they are all advocating different things because:

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Originally Posted by DeathCabForTootie

No clue whether or not to bet here because our "reads" are non-existent.

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05-10-2016 , 01:33 PM

#11

jake

adept

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 796

My head says b/f - my heart says checkback.

Both turn and river seemed good for the range I put him on.

If it's a given that we can happily fold to a raise (I think we can), then we are assessing the relative probabilities of a) V going for a c/r with a big hand (likely flush) vs. b) V calling down a worse hand (e.g. AT). Put like that, actually b) feels more likely. I change my vote. Just don't bet so small that you give him ideas.

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05-10-2016 , 02:37 PM

#12

Degenfish

adept

Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 1,164

70s LAG -- what are they putting in the water down at the old folks home?

It seems nitty but we can fold pre at a full table and not feel too badly about it. Agree that we only want two streets of value, flop is one and on the turn, I think I decide to barrel there -- even though KQ becomes 2pr and JT hits, enough of Villains' hands either add a gutshot, pair or hearts that we can b/f for value and plan on checking back river.

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