09-29-2023 , 01:19 PM
i mean the board is j85 A. you need an overwhelming amount of evidence to fold AJ particularly vs someone who is a beginner. i think its worth pointing out just how big of a mistake the people who said this is an easy fold are making. folding here compared to stacking off vs KdKx is almost a 500bb difference in expectation (we have ~78% equity in a 1890 pot so 1475 compared to 0 ev for folding). this isn't a small mistake, or a wait for a better spot, or ill do me you do you, this is honestly one of the biggest ev torches you could have the opportunity to make in a year of playing. yes she doesn't always have KdKx but you're going to find this is going to be a 100+bb mistake to fold here in ev vs reasonable assumptions / ranges for her.

@larry in pretty much every similar sim in this context (open and face 3b from oop) the solver (your favorite) wants to raise this type of strong but vulnerable hand ott (on this board / turn) but will always just call with flushes. its not the be all end all but like chaos said to actually do math re assumptions here would take a really long time and likely not end up being accurate anyways.

Edit: lol the math is not right hold on
i think its a 1300\$ difference, not 1475. man i cant even tell u the last time ive done math like this
.78 * (1890) - .22(800) = ~1300. so still a 433bb difference? i think thats right

this is with 800 turn stacks
if its 600 its
.78 * (290 + 600 + 600) - .22(600) =
1162 - 132 = 1030 so 343 bb error.

at the rate im making math errors itll probably be a good fold in like ten minutes lol. i think these numbers are right now

Last edited by submersible; 09-29-2023 at 01:37 PM.
09-29-2023 , 02:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by submersible
i mean the board is j85 A. you need an overwhelming amount of evidence to fold AJ particularly vs someone who is a beginner. i think its worth pointing out just how big of a mistake the people who said this is an easy fold are making. folding here compared to stacking off vs KdKx is almost a 500bb difference in expectation (we have ~78% equity in a 1890 pot so 1475 compared to 0 ev for folding). this isn't a small mistake, or a wait for a better spot, or ill do me you do you, this is honestly one of the biggest ev torches you could have the opportunity to make in a year of playing. yes she doesn't always have KdKx but you're going to find this is going to be a 100+bb mistake to fold here in ev vs reasonable assumptions / ranges for her.

@larry in pretty much every similar sim in this context (open and face 3b from oop) the solver (your favorite) wants to raise this type of strong but vulnerable hand ott (on this board / turn) but will always just call with flushes. its not the be all end all but like chaos said to actually do math re assumptions here would take a really long time and likely not end up being accurate anyways.

Edit: lol the math is not right hold on
i think its a 1300\$ difference, not 1475. man i cant even tell u the last time ive done math like this
.78 * (1890) - .22(800) = ~1300. so still a 433bb difference? i think thats right

this is with 800 turn stacks
if its 600 its
.78 * (290 + 600 + 600) - .22(600) =
1162 - 132 = 1030 so 343 bb error.

at the rate im making math errors itll probably be a good fold in like ten minutes lol. i think these numbers are right now
Makes sense. Think this is the first time weve agreed on anything

m