9 handed 1/3 game, everyone is weak tight, have been running over the table for 2-3 hours - I'm biggest stack on table with around 175bb, good image, but have won lots of pots. Villian has around 50bb and has been aggressive when checked to.
EP open limps, I raise AdJs in MP to $17, HJ calls, EP folds. Flop 922ddd, BB checks, I check. (I usually would bet here because there are so many good turn cards to continue - any diamond, lots of overs, etc, but villain behind has been sticky), CO checks.
Turn Jc, I bet $27, CO calls.
River 8d - I check, planning to call any bet around $20-45. He instantly moves in for around $100 into $97.
He can have a huge variety of value hands here, but his timing is weird. I have the Ace of Diamonds which makes me think if he hit a flush he would have taken a bit more time for the river shove unless he literally has a flopped boat with 99 or quads with 22. A2 (one combo - would have had to slowplay flop and just call turn) and a straight I assume he would take more time to think when the flush comes on the river.
Am I ever calling here or are most people not capable of bluffing here? Thanks
AP I generally just don't ck-call big bets from weak tight players on a board like this but checking makes it particularly annoying bc in a 1/3 game against any player this shallow, there are off-table factors that you have to now consider. Has he nursed $200 for hours and waiting for a spot to gii w the nuts? Is he ready to jam Kd with a rebuy ready? Did he start w $500 and is just punting now? all in all, you made your hand, so bet-c it, shove it, do just about anything other than ck. Now you have to figure out exactly what dynamics are in play and go from there.
You're afraid of JJ, 99, 88, 22, and that is it. Would they all have called pre? Maybe. Could they have all checked the flop? Maybe, but I would have expected the JJ to bet. 22 and 99 could be slow playing. 88 check seems non-crazy.
On the turn, would 99/22 just call, or raise? I suppose really weak slow-play players could just call. But if that is the case 88 would fold. How confident are you in your reads?
River diamond with a check shove is tough. Would 22/99 do this, hoping to induce from a made flush? That seems to be giving a lot of credit to a player you've identified as weak-tight.
This seems just as likely possibly to be a JT/QJ/KJ with one diamond. If you think all of those are in his range, you're looking at way more combos of 1 pair diamond flushes that you beat, compared to FH and quads options.
Probably a sighing call from me. If he has it, he has it, but I could imagine a lot of weaker flushes getting there.
With the pot being relatively huge to Villain behind us, plus his tendency to take a shot at things when checked to, I would attempt to check/shove this flop (should have lots of hand equity + FE), so I like the flop check. Unfortunate it didn't work out.
On the turn, I now feel committed against the Villain due to this small SPR and our hand. We might also have a little bit of a FOS image since we're running over the table, plus our hand looks FOS due to the flop check. I'm looking to play for stacks here, so I'd PSB the turn to setup a river shove.
Am I missing something on the river? Don't we have the nut flush (albeit on a paired board)? If I think he was calling the turn with a diamond, then I'm shoving. If I think he was calling the turn with a weak hand looking to steal the pot on the river when checked to, then I check to induce. So as played I snap call.
ETA: With new HH, I'd probably lean towards cbetting flop small, stick with betting *way* more on turn, and probably lean towards a check/fold on the river as played.
At a weak tight table, I'm not feeling good about having my raise of $17 get called and then having to play AJo from OOP . V can easily have JJ+ that decided not to 3bet because he expects you to bet his hand for him. I like checking flop and I can go either way on the turn between betting or checking.
You said everyone at the table is weak/tight but then say this V is aggressive when checked too. So which is it? Even if he was aggressive, once we get to the river we lose to everything, and I expect V to show up with an overpair a lot here. There are no missed draws that he could be bluffing other than QT suited (only 3 combos of QT suited that we beat, but I doubt he would call that preflop if the table is as tight as you say). He definitely woudnt take a hand with showdown value like TT or 77 and jam into you, especially when your range is capped with a ton of air and a few one pair hands.
Last edited by bodybuilder32; 11-24-2016 at 03:31 AM.
However i bet/fold river > c/c. Think you are losing too much value from the hands he is calling with that he just checks behind (Jx,9x etc). If he raises the river you can just fold.
