Hey all,
This is a hand my friend played, we have been discussing it and i think there are some interesting spots, so thought i'd share for wider thoughts.
$1/3, $500 effective, no real reads on Villain.
Folds to hero in MP, raises to $10 with A
J
, folds to BTN who calls, blinds fold.
$24 K
J
2
Hero bets $15, BTN calls.
$54 7
Hero checks, Villain bets $45, Hero calls.
$144 K
Hero checks, Villain bets $90, Hero..
My thoughts are villains calling range pre is super wide on the button for $10. All PPs, suited connectors, gappers, unsuited connectors, all broadways, Ax hands etc. but also capped. No JJ+, AQ+ mostly.
Flop bet seems standard. Villains calling range is still pretty wide. All Kx hands, Jx hands, QT, some gutshots with a
like AxQh, AxTh, 9xTh, heart draws like TJ, T9, 98, 78 etc. However with the Ah we block a lot of flush draws and probably has calling range at medium strength pair/drawy hands.
Turn is interesting, on one hand the Ah gives us more ability to check call and we'd be more inclined to barrel A
J
, but it also gives us further equity so I think barrelling makes sense as we can be called by some worse hands and doesnt let villain check behind and see the river for free.
So first question - does the A
make us more or less inclined to bet turn?
Next most interesting spot is facing the turn bet. Feels like if we call and draw to a flush we're not getting paid a lot, if anything at. Most of the time we're going to miss, check and be faced with a tough call on the river, which we will have to call a portion of the time.
We were discussing the merits of check raising this turn to say $140. We are deep enough to raise here and fold to a shove if we wanted to but that also seems to suck. Feels like villains range is going to contain a heap of medium pair type hands or drawy hands that will fold a large portion of the time to a check raise here to make this +EV for sure.
So second question is peoples view of maximum EV play on the turn (assuming we have checked) check/call or check/raise (yes GG, or check fold).
Third discussion point was calling the river given we need to be good 28% of the time to break even. I think V has following value range: KQ (8), KJ (6), KT (8), Flushes (ill give 6 combos), and a full house 22 (3). So 31 combos. Given 2.6:1 we'd need 12 combos of bluffs. QT has 16 combos alone plus maybe AxTh and AxQh type hands, and some times V bets a J here for value. Given we're holding the A
and block a lot of flush holdings we thought this was a call. Thoughts?
Last edited by FightingFish; 12-11-2018 at 05:46 AM.