5-10 2.5k effective, 8 handed

V utg+2 is 40 yo rec who really loves the game, uses the term solver and fold equity at the table. He has a few leaks but def one of the better recs. Able to make big folds and hero calls too.

H mp should be viewed as tag. I have some history with V, he likes to talk poker hands with me at the table. I respond honestly most of the time. We are friendly.

Otth

V opens 30, i have AhJh and 3bet to 100, v calls

Flop (215)

KcTd9h

V checks, i x back?

Turn KcTd9h 4d (215)

V bets 60, knowing V this is usually a small/medium pair block bet and rarely a draw, I call? looking to bluff diamonds or make my hand

River KcTd9h 4d9c (335)

V checks, i x back

I thought river would be a small ev mistake probably. In my head i thought he would just shrug call seeing that diamonds missed. But solver sees it as a huge mistake.

I think most of my value bets will get called so its a bit counter-intuitive to bluff here no? Did i make a huge mistake checking back?

Doesn't seem like a huge mistake - villain range may look quite different from solver after all.

But i dislike checking flop.

Flop should be a range bet probably for a quarter to a third pot. I think checking back this combo is what's going to make the rest of your lines on the later streets suck.

If I'm going to bluff after checking back it's going to be by raising on the turn.

Grunch

I think I c-bet the flop.

On the turn, villain's strong made hand should be betting bigger than 1/3 in theory. The block bet seems like a marginal hand that's not looking to face a bigger delayed cbet from h and may fold to a raise.

AP, I'm not sure I like raising turn. Folding seems too weak and for that sizing I think we have to continue to the river since we're still drawing to the nuts and maybe have more outs vs some portion of villains range.

River is interesting. As I was reading the hand, I thought hero called turn to bluff river. I don't think our ace high is good here. Villain's line seems congruent with a PP under 9, some Tx (JT, QT, maybe AT) and maybe AQ at a low frequency.

If I got to the river like hero did, I think I am turning my hand into a bluff and target 66-88, some weak Tx type of range. I think targeting a T is fine. We'll play QQ/JJ this way.

If I'm in villains shoes, and I play QQ/JJ this way, I'm not folding to most normal sizing on the river btw. That's 7 combos, and those combos block the nuts. But block value may not mean much on the river. Based on how the hand was played, neither player should have QJ in range.




Sent from my Pixel 7a using Tapatalk

Interesting problem.

I think I c-bet here.

Given we don't, I agree with Balerion that our play is consistent with QQ/JJ, but tbf so is Villains.


I think QQ/JJ mostly call say 150 on river, 66--88 mostly fold it. Tens I think mostly fold, though I could see AT make a crying call. So the question, is can we put all of this in his range (i.e. he would open raise 66-88 and call a 3b); if we can, then I think I go with the bluff.

except for AQ i dont think described villain folds a better hand on the river if he gets there like this. i think potentially earlier streets may not be great if hes leading turn depolar and we're not going to bluff vs it later though

I think checking the flop is really bad—this is a board we should be betting with 100% of our range.

Once you decide to check it I don’t mind the rest of the hand. You need to call the Turn (since you might have three-four outs for a double-up), and I don’t like bluffing either street since you’ve capped your range by checking.

I just don’t see any hands Villain has that
1) we are beating, and
2) will fold to a bet on the River.

He’s not folding QT here, ya know? I guess you might get him to fold AQ, but that’s a really narrow range to target. I think as played you just need to check and lose (or maybe beat 87 or Ad5d once in a while.)

Yeah, I think this is right.

If you are going to treat the flop as a bad one for you, which is probably wrong, then you can have plenty of hands that should value bet the river.

Your showdown value is pretty bad.

Well, from solver's standpoint, you're almost never going to check on the flop. It's like a less than 10% check with your hand. If you're not range betting this flop as a simplification, then your checking range is going to be more stuff like ATs, A9s, some QQ, JJ. Even QQ and JJ are bet off frequently on the flop. Maybe a hand like K6s will mix in checking, but it would be a low frequency 3bet anyways, just in there to protect your checking range. Very low frequency of trapping with hands like Kx or better.

So by the river in solver land, your hand is like in the bottom 5% of hands you can have since it should be bet on the flop so often, and it has less than 5% equity. Losing to any pair and AQ. Compare that to a hand like 77 which is a bottom 20% equity hand but still should have like 33% equity and should pure check back. Like 50% of your range from like 77 to K6s has a ton of equity equity but isn't pure betting because it struggles to get called by worse. Even JJ is supposed to have like 67% equity but it's rarely bets because it mainly folds out the hands it beats. Then the rest of your range, the top 30%, are basically traps or A9s which improved and needs to go for value. Value has to be balanced with bluffs, and now basically anything thing unpaired, even some A4s now needs to be bluffed.

When you call your hand on the turn, only 4 cards give you the nut straight, and one of them puts a flush out. A Q also puts out a 4 liner so it won't be easy to get called when you bink. An A improves you to a hand that is strong enough to bluff catch 75% pot on the river, but probably checks back otherwise. A J also puts a 4 liner out and only improves you you to something that might have to bluff catch at low frequency. Basically, there's not a while lot going for your hand on the turn. When we call turn, we need to be prepared to bluff a ton on the river when checked too.

Going back to the flop, I think range betting 20-33% on this board makes sense. It's going to be hard to balance your range on later streets if you don't bet the flop with range. You will have to find the 10% flop checks with traps and AQ, AJ type hands to give you a balanced betting range for this exact node in the game tree. It's likely that you are going to end up with too much trash in your flop checking line and consequently later streets if you aren't range betting.

Plus, you aren't going to have many better hands to cbet flop as a bluff. You block AKo, KJs, you have a nut gutter and backdoor heart draw. You block the flopped nuts of QJ. You aren't going to have better for bluffing honestly. 98s is your only open ender, and it should be low frequency if used at all and a J brings in a 1 liner to a Q. You're going to have so much Kx to bet on this flop that if you aren't using AJs, how are you finding enough bluffs?

exactly this

Good post, solver does check this flop 10% of the time. It is a mistake on my part, i thought it was more like a 50-50 mix.

River is obv bad, AhJh is the perfect bluffing candidate like you said. I guess i made an exploit check since he’s a rec. But looking back, it was badly played.

If a solver is checking 10%. Vs most people you're playing against checking is a mistake.

You should just interpret this as a range bet, and not think "Oh my check was ok because it happens 10% of the time."

I literally said it is a mistake on my part lol

i think reasonable q is what's the thinnest you'd vb river here ( as we clearly end up here with some kind of condensed range). i think you could and probably should bet JJ for a smaller size given V and line / sizing

based on what he ends up showing down here too i think checking the flop in the future is reasonable exploit vs him. if he shows up with like 77 here that stabs the turn and is potentially c/cing the river i think checking the flop with like KQ is going to do better than betting small

but instead everyone just wanna tell u blah blah u are bad for checking the flop when ev difference is less than 1/10 of a bb in a 20 bb pot

i see it checking a 200bb solve nearly 25% of the time (am looking at UTG MP 6m 500nl rake for reference) so i would think as u get deeper it may not make as much sense to simplify this down to range bet, and we're playing vs a rec so its unclear to me that you want to approach this in solver manner tbh

nh don't listen to people saying rangebet this board; xb is absolutely fine. turn size from him makes no sense; river seems too thin to reopen action in practice

"solver says" isn't going to apply much to this hand fwiw considering turn is likely a nonsize

I think I bet flop in position for a small size

Easy call on turn no point in raising I don’t think.

River I can’t see how it’s a massive mistake checking back A high. I mean we are rarely good here but betting huge or something is just lighting money on fire when a middle card pairs IMO

I misread this hand before; thought you had middle pair on flop (KJ9 instead of KT9) I see now you have ace high. Xb flop is still ok as a concept but much prefer middle pair xb than this hand.

I think as played turn raise is kinda cool, on river as played I think in practice checking it back is gonna be less bad than a solver output says

A bet of that size isn't going to do anything other than bloat the pot.

Well you're likely not winning the post without betting. That's the reason why you'd be betting. It's also not a value bet you'd make here. You'd want to bet fairly big.

Unless you were planning some ridiculously-sized overbet, I think V has a mandatory call with that hand. (He would even be beating a few hands you may be going for thin value with, like JT/QT.)

range bet flop, .75 turn, xb river

Bra...
Just wondering how you have a UTG + 2 position in an 8 handed game?

Dude, why are you 3b AJs against a reg, tons of worse hands to bluff with in position.

It's a frequency of his folding where you make long term profit pre flop.

You can call in position and increase flop bluff frequency against a capable regs c-betting range. Sometimes with nut equity.

Value bet some flops in position etc etc..

As played, you have a range of hands that should hit this flop a ton, cbet, barrel or three barrels, doesn't matter really, it's his frequency of folding that nets you profit.

His pre flop OOP call against a capable reg, yourself, likely tells me he would 4b his best hands most of the time against you. His range cannot handle a barrage of bets when the pot is growing larger and your range is uncapped.

Good luck

Villain is a rec, not reg. Positions must be LJ vs HJ. And I very much disagree with not 3betting here. We want fold equity, but we also want to isolate, especially vs a recreational player. Our equity and EV will go way down as more players enter the pot, we are out of position, and we don't have the betting lead.

AJs is probably slightly ahead of the range that continues at equilibrium and vs a rec who continues with ATo it is decidedly ahead.

Hero writes, this player talks solver, hand histories, fold equity, can make big folds and hero calls... probably an online player dabbling live, who knows

@mlark you're a bit result's orientated.
ATo means jack when hero has never mentioned him showing up with a hand as weak as ATo oop "so the 3b was for value".. just happened to be the case here

Villain could have folded at any point, hero was just to passive to find out post flop.