Quote:
Originally Posted by Spanishmoon
Preflop is fine but I would mix in a few flat calls too, just to keep my range wide against this lineup.
Flop is almost a mandatory raise. We have all the TPTK here and more NFDs.
AP Turn: front door straight draw has hit. V has shown ability to get sticky with/overvalue TPGK. So I really hate the raise here. We get direct odds to make our hand. Just call and bink or bluff all river Aces.
AP river: we rep so thin and offer V over 2-1 to call. If he didn't fold the bomb pot he isn't folding TPWK here either at this price. I think TPWK is the worst hand with which he gets to the river.
We don't think V had spade draws in range even after the turn raise? I'm just trying to figure out V's limp/call pf, 1/4 pot flop donk, 1/4 pot turn bet, and a blocking bet sounds like this kind of V. Or a 7 "trying to figure it out" (because this V would bet a K 1/2 pot or larger). I think they fold a bare 7 to the raise though.
Unfortunately most of their likely spade draws still beat H at showdown, but they would fold them to a river bet >1/2 pot, IMO. Agreed this V isn't folding K meh kicker, but I don't think this V would donk a K that small unless they knew they were going to bet/call on the flop and were trying to keep that call small.
I think we lose 100% at showdown if we c/back right? So if we do nothing, we lose 95. Can we create a reasonable V range & response tree where some sort of bet (105 to a 175 shove) does better than that on average?