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Advice needed, demoralized Advice needed, demoralized

10-19-2010 , 08:38 PM
So I started a thread a while back called "card dead, running bad". Unfortunately it continues. Someone please tell me that they would not have lost good $$ in this session: (and sadly this is almost every session now for the past 100hrs):

7 hour session with plenty of breaks. I have no reason to make things up or look for sympathy. Just wondering what to do. I have kept detailed records the whole time. QQ against KK early, I raise to 15 he calls. Flop is T63 rainbow. He bets 20, I raise to 55, he pushes 200 and I cover. I fold he shows KK. Later I have 69 in bb, folds to me I say go. Flop 578. I bet 12, 2 calls and one raise to 40. I raise to 105 and get a push for 200+ and a call. Of course I call, turn puts 3 diamonds and I lose to flush. Card dead for hours, every hand I play shows someone with a set or flush etc. Pick up KK with 190 behind, raise 3 limpers to 20. 2 calls. Flop T82 rainbow. Guy bets 30, other guy calls. I raise to 85, then both go all in. I fold, they show T8 and 22. FML. Then lost two sets to flush draws. Also had AQ 3 times, flopped Q high twice against KK and A high against a set. I won 1 hand in 7 hours. hours. And I watch others scoop $150 pots with second pair. I can't fold these hands every time, but they lose every time. And before someome says "it can't be THAT bad", well unfortunately it is. Do I just keep chucking money in the pot? I don't know how its possible to have so many bad spots in this amount of time. Let's add 17 overpairs to sets and 39 top pair top kicker to overpairs or sets in this fantastic run. Sorry for such a long post, I'm just demoralized and wondering if I am playing bad even though I know I could have lost so much more. This sucks so bad, and I guess I just take the losses and keep folding with happy thoughts? Or am I one of the unlucky few who just run incredibly worse than most?
10-19-2010 , 08:52 PM
Im going to tell you to do what i tell my students. make a separate pocket to store coins. (if at home, a jar). Every time you even think of how bad a beat was, let alone tell it to someone, place a coin in the pocket or jar. This coin signifies that i am still a fish, and you must state that comment to yourself as you place the coin in the storage spot.

Im VERY serious about that. Poker players can be separated by many things, but there is one separation that is monumental and that is the players who lament over bad luck, bad beats and such things that in reality do not exist really, and the players who have risen above this and never tell beat stories etc. The second group is ALWAYS accomplished players to some extent, while group A will always be in group A until they change this thought pattern.

You may say Phil Hellmuth is a big winner and is a group A guy, but in reality Phil is by far not a great cash game player so i dont even count him. Besides he is in a goofy type class all by himself. (an i think he may do a lot of it for attention )

There are no bad beats. What happens, happens. Yu know going in that a 10 to 1 shot will drawout one time in 11. This was the one time. So what. Bad Beat? No. Expected? yes. Expect several to clump in a row? yes. All explained easily as normal flow of things regarding math? yes.

So....

Get your jar out. Whats worse is that when you tell bad beat stories, other players couldnt give a sheet, and actually most love hearing them cause it makes their own beat miseries seem just a little bit less bad.

Spend time worrying about things you can affect. Spend zero time worrying about things you have no control over.

If you think im being harsh even the slightest, just ask here for anyone to raise to reply if they really care that you lost 20 hands in a row. Seriously. I didnt even read the beats, cause they are all the same and nothing anyone can do to help that issue.

Save yourself now, and get to where you never have to place a coin in the jar.
10-19-2010 , 09:15 PM
Seriously, I know it's demoralizing, but you should be really happy you are getting your money in good. If you are keeping accurate records, start stoving all your hands, and keep track of your Sklansky bucks. You can't spend 'em, but they do great for giving you an honest view of how you're running.

If you really are running that far below expectation, just remember, the wheel is always turning.
10-19-2010 , 09:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick
Seriously, I know it's demoralizing, but you should be really happy you are getting your money in good. If you are keeping accurate records, start stoving all your hands, and keep track of your Sklansky bucks. You can't spend 'em, but they do great for giving you an honest view of how you're running.

If you really are running that far below expectation, just remember, the wheel is always turning.

its really funny how over and over the normal sayings have been said.....
if players didnt win like this sometimes, they would never play
If your EV was good, then you played great so forget about results
Just dont think about the money, and think about how good/bad you may
......have played the hand out
blah blah

Nobody apparently wants to hear that. Thats why i throw a bucket of cold water in their face and give the cold reality check that everytime a player thinks these thoughts, they really still are in a fishy category (which is absolutely true) and people HATE to be considered a fish.

AND...
If you think like this about losing hands to 2 outers etc, then you really still have fish tendencies. its just a fact. (and what i have found to be the best cure for this disease is the association)
10-20-2010 , 12:04 AM
You play bad cop, I'll play good cop. It takes both to get into someone's head sometimes.

If I had the choice, I'd reverse to order of our replies.
10-20-2010 , 01:27 AM
but think about all those sklansky bucks you're making!
10-20-2010 , 01:57 AM
If you can internalize what I'm about to tell you, then you will save yourself thousands of hours of stress.

#1. There is no justice in poker, only probability.
Justice is a human invention. You don't deserve to win or lose. You aren't owed anything. You merely have a probability of winning or losing. Nothing more, nothing less.

#2. Trust the math.
If you are making the right +EV decisions, then you will trend upward over the longrun. It is inevitable. Believe in it, trust in it.

Lets say I was to make a wager with you on a coinflip. If it lands Heads, you have to pay me $100. If it lands tails, I have to pay you $200. And we will do this ten times a day, every day, for as long as you wanted.

How would you feel, if on the first day it landed heads 8 times out of 10 and you had to pay me $400? Would you want to quit? What if the same thing happened on day #2.

Your answer should be NO.

You should figure out that you are just getting unlucky and that eventually, the math will work this out in the longterm.

Poker is the same way.

Lastly, AintNoLimit has the right of it. Fish think in terms of bad beats. They keep a tally of all their bad beats so they have proof that the universe is against them. Why they need such proof is beyond me.

I guess it is an interesting way to justify their loss rate. Its so much easier to blame a loss on bad beats than to blame a loss on your overall poker skillz.

Not to say that is what you are doing and not to say you aren't in the midst of some crappy negative variance.

The best advice I can give you is to take a break, recalibrate, and then get back in to the game.
10-20-2010 , 04:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dgiharris
If you can internalize what I'm about to tell you, then you will save yourself thousands of hours of stress.

#1. There is no justice in poker, only probability.
Justice is a human invention. You don't deserve to win or lose. You aren't owed anything. You merely have a probability of winning or losing. Nothing more, nothing less.

#2. Trust the math.
If you are making the right +EV decisions, then you will trend upward over the longrun. It is inevitable. Believe in it, trust in it.

Lets say I was to make a wager with you on a coinflip. If it lands Heads, you have to pay me $100. If it lands tails, I have to pay you $200. And we will do this ten times a day, every day, for as long as you wanted.

How would you feel, if on the first day it landed heads 8 times out of 10 and you had to pay me $400? Would you want to quit? What if the same thing happened on day #2.

Your answer should be NO.

You should figure out that you are just getting unlucky and that eventually, the math will work this out in the longterm.

Poker is the same way.

Lastly, AintNoLimit has the right of it. Fish think in terms of bad beats. They keep a tally of all their bad beats so they have proof that the universe is against them. Why they need such proof is beyond me.

I guess it is an interesting way to justify their loss rate. Its so much easier to blame a loss on bad beats than to blame a loss on your overall poker skillz.

Not to say that is what you are doing and not to say you aren't in the midst of some crappy negative variance.

The best advice I can give you is to take a break, recalibrate, and then get back in to the game.
I think people talk about bad beats and recount them for a couple of reasons:

1) It affirms that you are making the right decision. Get it all in on the turn with TPTK against a J high flush draw and he hits a 9-outer. It's a bad beat. You played the hand fine and got unlucky.
2) It makes you think you have outplayed your opponent.
3) It convinces you to keep playing, knowing your 'luck' or +EV expectations are due to turn around.
10-20-2010 , 06:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ibelieveinkolb
I think people talk about bad beats and recount them for a couple of reasons:

1) It affirms that you are making the right decision. Get it all in on the turn with TPTK against a J high flush draw and he hits a 9-outer. It's a bad beat. You played the hand fine and got unlucky.
2) It makes you think you have outplayed your opponent.
3) It convinces you to keep playing, knowing your 'luck' or +EV expectations are due to turn around.
I think we have a different definition on what constitutes a bad beat.

For me, losing isn't necessarily a bad beat.

It has to be an improbable loss. Like if you are 90%+ to win, and then you end up losing, THEN you can call it a bad beat.

Otherwise, to me, its just a beat. And all beats are bad
10-20-2010 , 08:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AintNoLimit
If you think im being harsh even the slightest, just ask here for anyone to raise to reply if they really care that you lost 20 hands in a row. Seriously. I didnt even read the beats, cause they are all the same and nothing anyone can do to help that issue.
+1 to this. I didn't read them either. This forum also has a containment thread for Brags, Beats and Variance for that specific purpose. Trust me, nobody goes "Wow, that was a bad one." After you witness a beat where two case cards come runner-runner to beat someone for stacks, everything else is meh.

There's just one additional caveat. Talking, complaining, or groaning about bad beats is -EV at a table. Poker players are like sharks. If they sense you're running bad, they will go after you. I usually at most nod a couple of times and move on.
10-20-2010 , 08:54 AM
Three posts, at least two of them to whine. Thanks for being part of the community.
10-20-2010 , 10:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by quesuerte
Three posts, at least two of them to whine. Thanks for being part of the community.
thanks for being a dick
10-20-2010 , 11:21 AM
Just think of it this way. If Phil Ivey was playing with your roll, your stakes and your cards, would he be able to show a profit at the end of the year? If the answer is yes then you have work to do instead of feel sorry about yourself.
10-20-2010 , 04:33 PM
Well, at least you're not card dead anymore....

Seriously, excellent advice in this thread. Follow it. You'll know you're progressing as a player when you can shrug off these beats. Attitude is huge in poker. If you're not sure you can go into a session with a clear mind, take a break.
10-20-2010 , 06:12 PM
In my first act as a mod, I'm locking this thread. OP, you got plenty of good advice, go use it.
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