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advice on this AK play advice on this AK play

11-19-2016 , 12:25 PM
Hello
Last night playing £1/£2, had this hand, would like opinions on the play I went with, particularly should I be shoving in this spot?

So it's £1/£2 9 handed. There is a £4 straddle, first to act calls £4, folds to HJ, this player is playing around 50% of all hands, he has around £120, he raises to £16. I am next to act in CO and have AKo, with stack of £160. Standard play is of course to 3bet, but I had 3bet this player several times in last few orbits and a slower line felt right this time, so I just call. Player on my left on the button has £200, is a relatively tight player, but not the tightest at the table for sure. He thinks for a good minute before 3betting to £60. Now i don't claim to be a master in live reads, but i was watching him during his decision and he did seem genuinely uncomfortable and unsure of what to do, so i really didn't think he had AA or KK, and of course i block those hands also, so i am thinking he has 10s-Qs or possibly AQ which is aware of the loose players raise and thinks i am weaker having just called. Blinds and staddles fold. Back to the loose player in HJ, he quickly calls the £60 acting as though he is gambling. So now it's on me and I have a decision, i think for around 90 seconds then announce all in for £160. The button seems like he has a genuine decision (still a player behind of course but it seems genuine) after about 90 seconds thinking he calls my all-in, HJ also calls for his remaining stack.
So what do you think about this? Once I've just called the raise and face the 3bet with a call in front, should i ever be just calling? Should i ever be folding!? (is a tight player who has 3bet) I went with the all in following a just call which got some surprised reactions at the table. So the outcome:
HJ - has KJ suited
Button - has QQ

the board runs out K high with no Q or J so i took the pot down, but rather than being happy i was immediately replaying the hand and thinking about how it played out. So ya, please chip in and let me know what you think, especially about what you think is the right play following the 3bet.
Thanks!
advice on this AK play Quote
11-19-2016 , 01:09 PM
I would have 3 bet large pf, unless HJ rarely raises. Some people limp wide, like the 50% you mentioned, but almost never raise indicating JJ+. If that's not the case, HJ only has 60bb left, 30 if you consider the straddle. I'm looking for an easy way to stack HJ. As played, I'm fine stacking off our AK.
advice on this AK play Quote
11-19-2016 , 01:31 PM
Leaving out the results will generally get better advice.

As for your specific hand, meh. Probably close to 0 EV overall. You will run into a lot of situations where you are a bit over 33% to close to triple up, which is right around break even. Your profits come from situations where both villains turn up with pairs QQ- or BTN folds when you shove and HJ doesn't have a pair. Those are offset by the times you read the situation wrong and one does have AA/KK or one of them turns up with AK and your drawing to chop.

I'm almost always folding here. I would need a strong read that I have FE vs BTN when shoving to make this move.
advice on this AK play Quote
11-19-2016 , 01:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by QuadJ
Leaving out the results will generally get better advice.

As for your specific hand, meh. Probably close to 0 EV overall. You will run into a lot of situations where you are a bit over 33% to close to triple up, which is right around break even. Your profits come from situations where both villains turn up with pairs QQ- or BTN folds when you shove and HJ doesn't have a pair. Those are offset by the times you read the situation wrong and one does have AA/KK or one of them turns up with AK and your drawing to chop.

I'm almost always folding here. I would need a strong read that I have FE vs BTN when shoving to make this move.
Thanks, im interested to hear that you would almost always fold here. In my mind, i am almost always ahead of HJ, sure he can have some under pairs but i do think more often he has dominated broadways (remember he didn't shove following 3bet he only called, for half his stack), so surely i have to see his £60 invested as dead money which just gives me a better price against 10s-Qs against button? Because rather than flipping to win double i am flipping to win double + £60 dead from HJ + strong possibility of additional £60 when he calls also. Does this extra money in pot not outweigh the negative of being crushed by button if i am wrong and he has AA/KK?
advice on this AK play Quote
11-20-2016 , 03:53 PM
HJ's dominated broadways are more likely to be blocking you then BTN, so you are not going to be flipping here. Take the specific combination you got. AKo vs QQ and KJs puts you at 33% equity. Your profit is $307 1/3 of the time and you lose $144 2/3 of the time. The EV on your shove is $5. It is more likely that HJ is blocking you then BTN, just because there are more ways, but he will have QJ or KJ some of the time also. So ignoring the particularly favorable and unfavorable situations your EV against villain's ranges will be a bit better then that. But still your risking your stack in a situation where your EV is probably < $20.

This why being able to judge how often BTN folds in this situation is so key. If you give the button AQ and have him fold to your shove the EV goes way up. There is less money in the pot but against HJ's wide range your chance of winning is probably over 60% even if you allow HJ AA/KK/QQ. That puts your EV above $80.
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