Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 204
H is 20s WG with a hoody and headphones. Has been running well especially the last hour, with a stack of ~1000, covering the table. H has been at the table for a couple hours, V has been here for about an hour. He has a full stack and been playing relatively straightforward for 1/3. Some limps, some opens to 12-15, nothing remarkable. He has a little over 300 in front of him, H covers. We haven’t played any noteworthy hands together.
V opens to 20 UTG. This sets off some alarm bells for me, bc he’s opening from UTG and this should be a strong range against a relatively loose table. 20 is also bigger sizing for him, and for the table / the game generally. All this makes me cautious.
Despite the rest of the table being call-happy, I think 20 gets it heads up or 3ways a lot of the time. H decides to call, trying to play a smaller pot with a strong but speculative hand against a range that has me in okay shape, probably. Sometimes I’ll 3bet this, but against this open, from this guy, in this position, with this size, it feels like an easy call and see a flop. What do you think?
My assumption immediately collapses as damn near the entire table calls the 20, and we see the flop 7 ways.
F: Ah6h5d (140)
Bb Checks, aggressor makes it 60. H thinks and folds.
My thoughts are that I could easily be against a better ace here, with good draws and possible sets / 2p behind me. If I get raised here (not unlikely with a wet board), AND the aggressor calls, I hate life and have to give it up. And I think this board always gets worse for me, barring the two non-heart queens. AQ just felt very marginal here. Given that we didn’t get heads up or 3way, where I’m almost never folding, I was happy to take the lower variance play and just take the $20 hit.
Is that way too nitty? I’m never getting away from AK, but AK is a big part of his range once he leads this board (he even has 1 combo of aces although obviously that’s discounted). Anyone else could have a set, 2p, or a great draw that has loads of equity against my range. And other than the hearts, which are obviously bad, I don’t love a 2,4,7,8,9. Even a J / T could be a bad card if someone’s in there with AT or AJ. Obviously you can’t worry about it everything, but with this many people, feels like TPGK isn’t the hand I want to be taking to the felt.
Just feels like a very high variance spot with a marginal hand that almost never gets better, and sometimes (often?) is already crushed. Against this many opponents, including an EP raiser that’s given every indication of liking his hand, I found a fold. Thoughts?
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