AdJd on 662dd flop faces donk overbet - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

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AdJd on 662dd flop faces donk overbet

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11-16-2023 , 01:17 PM

davomalvolio

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 1,745

$2-$100 spread-limit ($100 is max you can raise). Blinds $1-$2. Late weekday night.

Hero opens AdJd to $10 in MP. SB and BB call.

Flop: 6d6s2d (pot: $30.)

The SB (stack: $300, I cover. Old Asian guy, straightforward poker player) leads out for an overbet of $40. The BB folds.

We…? Is this a fold with RIO?

Last edited by Garick; 11-17-2023 at 01:45 PM. Reason: zodiac

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11-16-2023 , 10:50 PM

submersible

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2021 Posts: 1,585

you're wondering if you should fold AJdd on 662dd to a single bet?

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11-17-2023 , 12:33 PM

pokerfan655

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 1,387

This is one of those super exploitative spots vs low level players that really no one can answer as best as you can. I doubt there's any balance to this bet, but there could be - this could be 6x+ 100% of the time but I think it's on you to know.

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11-17-2023 , 12:55 PM

Playbig2000

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 11,352

It looks like 6x, which we're probably around a 25% dog against so it comes down to the math pretty much. We can call once but he's probably getting the rest in ott with no diamond, and if we call we're banking on him getting the rest of it in if we do get there.
If we jam he's probably snap calling and tabling a 6 saying "flush draw?" so we don't have too much FE here imo either.

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11-17-2023 , 01:26 PM

hitchens97

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 2,457

Quote:

Originally Posted by Playbig2000

It's limit, so his bet is 100 max on the turn if he has a 6.

That won't give us the direct odds to call, so it's a math question on how much of the 100 on the river can we get to make the implied odds good.

I think with the at least 10% random spaz garbage in low stakes factor, I probably call flop.

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11-17-2023 , 01:33 PM

Spanishmoon

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 1,518

Preflop standard against Gemini.

Ok, so if H calls donk pot is 110 to the turn minus rake. So worst case, V blasts 100 on the turn. We get 2-1 to call turn max bet.

So let's assume best case : with any A, diamond or J, that's 13 outs, OHIG. We need over 3-1 here implied best case.

I think we have to fold unfortunately. Diamond probably kills action and we just don't have enough IO with spread limit.

It's a Cancer move, I know (as a Cancer). But back into the hard shell.....

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11-17-2023 , 01:40 PM

Playbig2000

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 11,352

Quote:

Originally Posted by hitchens97

It's limit, so his bet is 100 max on the turn if he has a 6.

oops I forgot, so yea it's a RIO spot for sure and an easier fold.

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11-17-2023 , 02:44 PM

davomalvolio

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 1,745

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spanishmoon

I figured we also have huge Reverse Implied Odds, eg if our Diamond gives him a boat (or if he already has a boat+ already).

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11-19-2023 , 12:41 PM

davomalvolio

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 1,745

RESULT

Quote:

Originally Posted by davomalvolio

I actually did call.

TURN: 6d6s2d 8d (pot: $110)

Villain checks. I bet $70. He folds.

THOUGTS: Still not sure about this one. I would later see this Villain donk off $400 in the dumbest way possible (he maxbet-called a River with black AQ-high on a 6d3h2h6c5h runout), which made my thought of folding to his flop bet even sillier in hindsight, but….I do think there are certain players where I should fold to the flop bet, because it really will be trips 100% of the time.

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11-20-2023 , 01:20 AM

#10

submersible

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2021 Posts: 1,585

turn sizing feels like it should be smaller (1/3) or bigger (max) to me. i think you either want to play vs air or random pair type hands, or max vs a 6 / lower flush. i dont think 2/3 does a great job vs either of those regions of hands and i wouldn't care at all about balance or theory vs a guy who lead 1.3x pot on 662

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11-20-2023 , 01:25 AM

#11

monikrazy

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 28,056

Flop is never a fold, its call or raise and both are good options.

Raise tends to be better since a lot of villains will donk too many 2p combos here despite Hero having huge range advantage on this texture.

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