Meh I prolly fold in game because I hate making tough calls like this - unless i've seen him get out of line before or he is tilted.

If I have seen him make big bluffs like this than I call

If he is tilted I call

If he is playing good / solid poker - I fold


I mean you bet pretty big 2 streets - and he call / call

I doubt he is call / calling with AJ - he probably doesn't have KT - and if he does he's bad - he most likely has a set or air. And a set probably thinks the A hit your hand so he is trying to bet big to ether make you think he is bluffing or so you don't check back.

Ether way his line is strong and $400 is an expensive call. I don't know many people capable of bluffing in this spot.

That's why I think it's JJ. Maybe even QQ rarely. If it's for value that is.

And two clubs like 98cc if he's bluffing.

Results OP?

Definitely folding--- seems like you are calling for a chop best case scenario and its never a bluff. I dont think vilain ever shows up with sets here bc hes raising those ott at the latest. Just KcTc(maybe other KT combos since your deeper?) and AxQx. Unless there is some dynamic we aren't aware of I fold and feel fine. That or like some posters have said your description of V could be off and he could be not so solid and that would change everything. When nits call and then randomly show aggression in bigger pots w/ larger sized bets I typically default to fold even if their hands don't necessarily make sense and ranges are really tight. Whenever I see other people call 99.99% of the time they have it. The fact that you two stay out of each others way and this hand was MW makes his 2/3 psb otr range that much tighter. I dont see how our "solid" tag nit villain shows up here w/AJ or a set (and not raise turn). I would normally think AQ combos are the majority of his range but he sizes his bet so large what could he possibly expect you to call with that he is beating on the river with no dynamic given your history. Still folding, if his sizing were smaller i think it becomes an easy call.

This player has to be like REALLY solid (and by solid in a live game, I just mean someone who rarely makes mistakes like calling with worse) and basically has ALWAYS shown a strong hand at showdown for me to fold. There are a few guys I play with like this, where they are simply never EVER bluffing the river. The only hand he has are draws on this board, but regardless of how often a 2p2 player might c/r here, live players almost never semi-bluff vs an aggressor. I just really dont think villain is going to c/r deepstacked vs a presumably tight player in his eyes.

Despite how tight/solid/winning of a player hero thinks he is, KT (any combo, even offsuit, it's live and live players dont fold this regardless of position) is absolutely in his range and would play it just like this. I dont think it's a great line by villain, but just because he played it passively then donked river doesnt make him a big losing player. He's probably a winner in these games and these kind of plays work out just fine for your avg lowstakes player.

^ I have to agree - I'm almost never seeing x/r with semibluffs in my games. Everyone, even the better players are very passive with draws.

I'm also never seeing big donk river bluffs with busted draws from stronger players, like ever, never seen it.

I think this is just one of those cases where the most obvious hand is what he has, even if it is only 4 or even 1 combo, that's what V has. We should fold.

The other place I see this sort of play all the time is online at zoom fullring. Everyone's tight and "solid". I have lost count of the number of times top two pair is no good in this type of spot.

However, I do have a lot of sympathy with johnnybuzz's plan to call and be certain of how this V plays if you are playing a lot of hours with him in the future. In that case I would call but am surprised if shown anything other than KTcc.

kookie, what's all this? I understand the ranges but not the math. Thanks for taking the time to explain.

OTT: Hero bet $150 into a $300 pot & V called. If V has KT, he has 6 outs.

Putting him on KT we have 44 'unknown' cards going into the river.
[44-6]/6 = 6.33:1 dog is Villain * $150 = $950.00

If Hero calls, V wins the $450 in the pot that didn't include his $150 call ott + $400 = $850.

So, even if Hero calls, V is a long-term loser, no?

Like everyone said: With V being a 'Nit TAG' would he call $25 pre with KTo, and then assume that since he is only up against 2 Vs that the likelihood of a V having a flush draw is slim?

Sitting here at my desk, having done the math & not actually having to put $400 of my money in the pot, I can take solace in the fact that V is a long-term $ loser and call with only one 2nd thought:

How many times have any of us called in the BB with KTo in a situation like this? The only limper is a 'loose/passive fish,' & put Hero on a wide range trying to isolate the fish?

And then, due to the small field doesn't put much stock in the flush draw being out there & gives yourself 8 outs to the str8 & a possible 3 outs to your king on the flop? Then calls OTT due to the perceived 'discounted' price?

If V has KT it's nothing but the 'perfect storm'

Folding is probably the right play, but V didn't get the right price & does he never, ever bluff here?

I also have zero idea as to what most of this is. So if this is all indeed correct...someone elaborating on it in a way my 12 year old brain can handle would be amazing

The main piece of math i'm concerning myself with here is the 2.5 to 1 we are getting on river. He needs to be bluffing or have AQ/AJ just 28% of the time here for us to call. I just cant convince myself he has K10 or a set that makes ZERO sense a whopping 72% of the time.

I think it has to be a fold.

I don't see many bluffs at all.

We account for the Ac, Qc, and Jc. That means the next highest card flush draw is KcTc (a straight, obviously). After that for this villain? 9c8c since he won't have more Kxs. And there's not much left after that. Maybe like ~6 total combos. I also feel KcTc and 9c8c sometimes c/raise flop oop.

The A is also a bad card for villain to bluff. It hits hero's range hard. AK, AQ, AA, KT, etc. Hero did bet 2 streets and must have something. The only hand the A is bad for is KK. Yet sometimes hero calls KK anyway (people call too often; makes sense for V to bet for value even against KK because KK almost always checks behind river), or, if hero is folding, villain can probably bet 300 rather than 400.

I think the fold is pretty trivial and have a difficult time thinking V has anything other than KT, a set, or AQ for a chop. And of course, if we do call, V's turn call with a hand like KT is +EV.

I think river seems like a good spot to bluff only ITT where we see hero's exact hand, and it looks like we might be getting owned when we have rivered top two. But I think it's an easy fold.

Also, for people calling, do you also call with Kd9d?

That's nut no pair and doesn't block any flush draws. Or do you think villain is turning a made hand into a bluff?

All of this makes way too much sense for me to continue to defend my stance...so i think i have to concede and say im team fold now?? Is there any way we can give villian 910s here to give his bluffing range a tad more combos? I'm now realizing that it prob wouldn't matter still even if we did. Sadly i didn't delve much at all into the limited flush combos there really are in his range here considering AQJ and all but one Kc combos are removed. We can also assume that any reg worth his salt is probably x/r the K10c/910c combo here. So it's literally down to 98/87/76cc as far as pure air goes, and its hard to have him calling a healthy raise OOP vs a perceived solid player IP on the button. Still tempting since you have to be almost 3x as confident that he has K10 or a set vs AJ or missed FD...but starting to think we can do that now.

From the pot odds I figured out our b/e equity (in the form of a fraction because it was easier)

To figure out our equity I decided on the hands in his range, counted the combos of each hand, discounted if necessary, then multiplied by my equity. I did this for each hand, then I added up all of the products, divided by total combos.

When numbers are close at least you can go back and highlight the variables that swing it one way or another. For me here it´s the combos of AJs, AJo???, and the # of bluff/fudge combos. If you don't think he gets there with AJ then you fold. I'm naturally suspicious and I think our small sizing can induce weird stuff=I call.

A good tag reg is not calling the turn with KT, like ever. If he had a set, then he would have raised the flop or turn. If he had exactly KcTc, then at least 50% of the time he's bombing the flop.

So yeah, I'm calling.

BTW...if he tables KTo, then you need to change your read to loose passive fish.

cookie-
there are 7 sets not 4 (qhqd,jhjd,jhjs,jdjs,3h3d,3d3s,3h3s)

so by your gorilla math

AQ-4combos x.5%equity=2
KTs-4x0=0
AJs-(1)x1=1
33,JJ(7x.5=3.5)x0=0 (Discounting combos by 50% because this is a weird line to take OOP with a set on a wet board.)
bluff combo/fudge factor (.5)=.5 (usually go like 10% in HU pots but keeping small because of situation, described V, hard to believe he has like AK or QJ here)

=3.5/13 equity

break even equity= 400/1400=1/3.5=3.5/12.25

so slowly fold?

Haha. I think a TAG 3! QQ pf.

Results please!!!

I am expecting JJ+ to have raised before the river. If our read is correct, he rarely ever has KT (suited or not) out of the blinds.

This looks most likely to be a chop or we're beating AK/QJ. Either way I call. If he has a slow played set or the unlikely KT, I adjust my opinion of the player for future reads and get on with life.

I really like this hand is a very interesting spot
from your reads
I discount all sets just for the fact that he didn't raise on the turn for value
I would discount KT/T9cc most of the time since it is a huge draw and I expect a TAG to be raising with it.
I dont think it is crazy too see Villain show up with AJ here but I cant see villain donking out unless he thinks that you will pay him off with worst (AK/KQ)
given your reads I think villain would expect you too check back a lot of hands for showdown value and as such is betting for value(KT) or just plain air
you are getting 2.5 on your money So seems like a sigh call too me I expect him too show up with KT a fair bit but I think he would throw in enough bluffs or worst hands to make it worth your while

Hero calls and V shows 33

wow I think he missed a lot of value by not raising the turn, after you bet the turn he has put you on a decent hand.
maybe he is trying to get the other player to stay in, but I think if he raises on the turn you are rarely folding to a decent size bet.
a little bit of a cooler but if he played a little more aggressive I can see you losing a lot more money.

Let's be serious no one actually folds this.

I think people are biased because in most hands being posted here, hero lost. Folding here is super exploitable and mubsy.

lol being exploitable in LLSNL

has anybody given a range of bluffs V can have?

Cool. Put villain on a range.

You think he value bets worse on this river? What hands?

Or you think he mostly has bluffs after c/c, c/c, 2/3 PSB? What hands?

What's his range, and what's hero's equity vs that range?

I already did put him on a range.

K9cc, 45cc-89cc. AQ, some AJ, I discount sets, QJs, KTcc and 9Tcc because I believe him to raise them at some earlier time in the hand.

I dont believe its out of the question for random V to try to bluff a busted flush draw to rep KT here.

I call this every time and then note that he can slow play sets on drawy boards, even with a third player in the hand who looks to be drawing.

Maybe my range is wrong but I havent played with villain and from experience its more non-standard to play a set like this than a busted flush draw.

My main point is that its so easy on this forum to construct a really mubsy range and be right, because when people post hands here they want advice on the spot, which implies they did something wrong. Since most Vs dont show their bluffs, being wrong is mostly a calling mistake, and with this information people create ranges that support the idea that H is about to make a calling mistake.

Your PF calling range analysis is...um...optimistic.

With supposedly passive fish already limping in, why not play these hands and expect the fish to come along, allowing you to play hands with decent multiway equity in a pot were pre-flop aggressor will have to play his hand pretty face up?