[LOW] AcAs on an all-club flop; Turn complicates things!
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 1,822
Game is $2-$100 spread-limit, where the blinds are $1-$2 and the most you can bet is $100 (or raise $100 over the previous bet).
Hero is new to the casino. Very early in a new session—my only real vibes are that everyone seems very passive and straightforward. No big pots yet. The preflop raise sizes are weirdly small (multiple players have opened for just $6.)
Hero has a $300 stack, everyone else is in the $2-$400 range.
The hand:
Two players limp. Hero raises to $14 with AcAs. The Button and both limpers call it. 4 ways to a flop of
Flop: Jc7c2c (pot: $58)
The limpers check to me. I bet $20 (small side because ranges are polarized on monotone flops). Just the Button calls.
Turn: Jc7c2c Jd (Pot: let’s say $100)
This is a bad card for both my range and my actual hand, so I check. Villain checks back.
River: Jc7c2c Jd Qd (Pot: $100)
Action is on Hero. Are we betting for value, targeting some 8c8x-type hero calls? Check-calling? Check-folding? Check-raising? What do we think?
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 1,523
It's hard to see how V can check his Jx or small flushes here on the turn when he can be out-drawn on the river by overpairs with clubs, which H has more of in his range. So I range him on KcQx or maybe QcKx. I think he has to raise his sets on the flop.
I'm making a standard value bet on river targeting those KQ hands, which are in V's range from the BTN after the flop action. I'm not folding because we're going to get 2-1 even if he raises the spread-limit max. If he has Jx, whatever. We have more QQ and can he really raise us here comfortably? So I think it's a good spot for thin value with spread limit.
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 2,468
I like bet/folding here with a small amount. Let's make it 40, and hope we get a crying call. from Qx or some random underpair that wants to bluff catch.
Obviously folding to a raise.
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 2,500
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 6,461
Bet 40-50 and fold to a raise. EZ game.
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 1,822
Hm. Surprised to see “bet-fold” is the winner. I thought the better value line would be to check-call—he’ll still call if he spiked a queen, but this way I can get value if he bluffs a naked Kc. But thinking it over I suppose that’s too narrow a range (he shouldn’t really have any off suit K combos).
Anyway, RESULTS:
River: Jc7c2c Jd Qd (Pot: $100)
Hero checks. Villain bets $40. Hero calls. Villain tables pocket 7s for the full house. Hero thanks the poker gods for what wound up being a very lucky Turn card for him.
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 2,111
I am also leaning towards check call.
