Background: 2-5 NL home game. I have never seen Villain before in my life (well-dressed, mid to late 20s Asian kid). We have just started and played one orbit, seven handed. During this one orbit, Villain has made one bad, but not horrible bluff, and made a seemingly good value bet with AQ on a Qxx-x-K board in a spot where a lot of people would've been scared by the K (he got paid by QJ, iirc). Other than that, has folded his other hands and done nothing note-worthy at all. Then the following two hands happen:

Hand 1 (for context):

UTG (Tight old white dude, about $650): Opens for $15
Folds to Villain ($915) on the Button: Calls.
SB: Folds.
Hero (BB, $500, 65): 3-bets to $50
UTG: Quickly calls.
Villain: 4-bets to $200
Hero: Folds.
UTG: Thinks for a second and calls.

Flop ($450): T 9 4

UTG: Shoves for about $450.
Villain: Snap calls.

UTG shows QQ
Villain shows A7

UTG holds. Villain is left with exactly $265.

The very next hand:

Folds to Villain in the CO: Open shoves for $265.
Button folds.
Hero (SB, $450) looks down at AT, BB is UTG old guy from last hand, who has him covered.

So . . . Fold or shove?

I'm assuming old guy calls me with AJs, AQ+, 77+. That makes the shove -$4.26 EV against just the old guy. If he also calls with AJo that gets a bit worse: -$5.90. If he calls with KQs, that adds about $.17 to my EV. Each of the pairs 22-66 that he calls with take away $.10

So, let's say I lose about $5 from shoving on BB.

So the real question is what do you think I'm going to see from Villain (we have one normal orbit, one bats**t insane hand, and then this open shove)?

If I'm going to see a lot of absolute junk, it's obviously a good call. However, if he's doing this with the top of his range, I need him to be shoving 18.5% (22+, A2s+, A4o+, KJ+, KTs). If he's not going to be shoving QQ+ because he thinks it's too valuable, then I need him to be shoving 15.5% (22-JJ, A2s+, A6o+, KQ, KJs, KTs) or more.

Thoughts?

Calling here would be pretty bad regardless of the first hand. I'd call with TT+/AK and maybe AQs. Game sounds amazing though.

A few thoughts:

1. I wouldn't assume that V won't shove with the top of his range (QQ+). He may recognize that a shove looks tilty and bluffy here after he just lost a big pot.
2. Think your calling range for UTG is way too wide. I'd assume a tight old guy is calling your shove with QQ (maybe JJ)+ and AK.
3. No idea why you 3-bet in hand 1. Tight old dude opens UTG. You have a hand you can profitable call and try to make a nutted hand in a 3-way pot for just 2% of effective stacks, and nits don't like to fold overpairs. Hand 1 was an easy call closing the action.

open shoving ranges tend to be pretty tight, I think AT is an easy fold personally.

Hand 1: Why did you 3bet a nitty UTG opener? What was your plan?

Hand 2: Fold. For the reasons MIB stated. Plus...this V has shown himself to be very exploitable given the hand you described. Why would you ever call off with AT pre-flop vs this guy?

Hand 1: I gave Hand 1 for the context (namely that Villain four bet A7s and then called off his stack with no pair, no draw). If you want to know my reasoning/plan in hand 1, I know Tight Old Guy *very* well. TOG folds to 3-bets *so* often that as long as you don't make it *super* obvious, doing so is profitable with any two cards. Given that Villain was new to this game, I figured that he has to give me credit for 3-betting against an old white guy who raised UTG.

I thought he was going to fold much of his calling range (obviously I was wrong). And even if he flats me, yes a 4 SPR pot OOP is not the best thing in the world, but 65s is not the worst hand to do it with.

Hand 2: After the insanity of the hand before, I assumed I would often be seeing things like A6o, KJo, 33, etc. (say a top 20% range). That's the big question I'm asking about.

Guy does something absolutely suicidal and then shoves, I don't think it's just the nuts. But it also might not be that 18%+ range I need to make the call.

Also, the fact that he's shown himself to be highly exploitable is not a reason to fold. It's a reason to call. At these stakes, I don't care about the variance. If he doubles up through me, I just reach into my wallet (I did). And the fact that I'm a LAG and sitting two seats to his left means that *because* he's exploitable, he'll crap a lot of the money back to me (he did). Because of that, I *want* to make any high variance play against him that is neutral EV or better.

I agree that V's range could be wide here, but I doubt it is wide enough to make A10o profitable. Definitely never folding AQ here, AJs is probably the line for me, along with 99+. I think the bottom of his open shoving range is generally A10o/A9s, maybe 55+. We are almost never ahead here, flipping sometimes and getting destroyed a lot.

His move last hand looks crazy but isn't the same type of crazy as open shoving ATC.

I don't think this is very bizarre...

First mistake... you 3bet preflop vs a tight man, but I'm not going to talk too much about that since everyone else touched on that

Second your villain is a live poker noob who is desperate to get his stack back. Since he's a maniac and is somewhat tilting the first hand doesn't help with the second. He can show up with literally anything and in this case he has a premium hand.

Fold your decent hand of A10 because it's just a bluff catcher now and wait for a better spot to stack him since this is a great game and all you have to do is wait for the nuts. He'll pay you off (obviously calling an all in with nothing)


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Fair reasoning on hand 1 - sounds like you have a read on TOG.

Hand 2 - I see what you are saying re being happy to take the high variance route. Personally, I would prefer to fold even if we think we are ahead of V range (albeit obviously only marginally) to let V continue to steam. Giving V his chips back straight away after he lost them is going to give him a huge mental boost, which would mean we need to spend a lot more time bashing him back down again...Psychology is a powerful thing.

I´m shoving pretty happily after what i saw the previous hand.
even after (ofc instantly) reading the spoiler.

I'm just calling Pre-flop, and then calling any raise by BB old white guy. If it goes to flop and the flop isn't two paints and a x I'm shoving, if it is two paints and an x, I'm just calling if he bets.