8 handed $1/$2 NL "home" game. Frequent straddles.

Relevant players:
Hero($950) is BB with AA
UTG($72)
MP1($900)

PF Action:
UTG straddles for $4 and announces he is going all-in when it comes back to him. He is a LAG, on tilt after losing over $900 in the past 30-40 minutes.
UTG+1 folds
MP1 raises to $12. MP1 is a LAG who is down for the night despite sitting with $900 due to multiple re-buys.
Folds to Hero.

Hero calls $12
UTG looks at his cards and goes all-in for $72 total
MP1 quickly calls $60
Pot: $157.
Hero?

Note: so far in 4+ hours of play, Hero has never 3-bet FP (other than raising straddles), has never called a PF raise over $25, and has folded multiple times after calling $10-15 and then facing a raise to $60+.

Let's give anyone left in the hand a "free card" then.

Not me.

Yes, we are deep, but that is another reason not to let MP1 in cheap.

$200 on top and shove all flops.

Otherwise, why did we come to this game in the first place?

I'd reraise to $225

175 and shove flop. Nice win with one pair.

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If villain calls the $175 the pot is going to be $425ish. You're going to shove $725 on the flop? Seriously?

This is a leak you should take care of.

For the hand, I like a raise anywhere from 150-175.

I like the initial flat given the dynamics of the short stacked steaming Vs claim that he's shoving, which I'm more apt to believe as the truth in a home game environment.

Also thrilled to be getting action from another player, but it's time to lay the hammer down. You guys are very deep, his range should be wide, and I'm not trying to give a free flop to a LAG when playing this deep. $225-$250 seems okay to me.

Not necessarily. 90-110 hands isnt a huge sample size to conclude anything substantial. I dont see anything wrong with what happened in that small sample anyway

Sounds good to me.

Yea anywhere 225 to 260

If you can't develop a player profile in 4+ hours of live poker, you're literally only ever playing at Level 1.

Or maybe Hero had a bad stretch of non premiums over a lol 4hr sample of 90-120 hands. You never even heard of statistics? That’s sad. Too bad you didnt get a proper education

And i didnt say anything definitive about profiling. All i said was you cant make assumptions about Hero having leaks definitively over a lol 4 hr sample

Raise for many reasons.

Results: Hero raises $200 on top, MP1 folds. Dry run-out and hero takes down the pot.

Reason for post: maybe $200 on top screamed I have AA? Or maybe it was too much to reel in a victim?

So you raised to $272? That's "$200 on top". That's too much. Either way though, there's a good chance the guy wasnt calling $200 total. You won 72BBs with AA with little risk and no risk of losing a massive pot when playing this deep if the other guy called. Great result all around.

Yes - $272 total.

Looks good. Could even go a bit less or more...depends on tendencies of MP1 and how they react to different raise sizes.

Just curious what is the(a) rationale for not raising (say if one were to play devil's advocate).

In general the rationale for not raising with the nuts is to maximize how much you win by not scaring away the weaker hands that may put more money in the middle if they flop a pair or like the flop. You already have all of UTGs money but now are trying to figure out how to get the max from MP. Examples:
MP has AQs and decided to call for $60 more but will not call $200+, but if you flat and a Q comes on the flop they may stack off or at least call another couple of hundred.
MP has a JJ-TT type hand and may bet / call on a safe board (9 high) but again will fold to the $200+.

Given effective stack size of MP $900 this is worth discussion. The consensus of most here seem to be to raise, perhaps since we are essentially heads up against a LAG. But I think the best answer comes down to how likely you think LAG is to call the raise. Either way we can play a huge pot.

If we flat pre the pot is $217 and we will probably have to donk bet 3 times. If we lead flop for $150 and get called then there's $517 in the pot and V has $678 behind. We can bet $300-$350 OTT, then get the rest on the river. Obviously this is all at the risk of V catching up and doubling through.

If we raise we get more of our money in good and make it easier to get it all if he calls but we run the risk of MP folding and losing a ton of value.

For me it would probably depend on the Villain, I think either method COULD be correct.

If we win 72BB every time we have AA, at 30 hands per hour, 9 handed, that alone accounts for a 5BB/hr winrate.

That's if we play no other hands, ever.

I think you played it close to perfect.

Can you show your math?

Absolutely.

We get AA every 1/221 hands. Assuming 9-handed, that's roughly 24.5 orbits, for which we pay 1.5BB per orbit. That's 36.75BB to see 221 pocket cards.

If we only played AA the way we did here, we have a clean profit of 35.25BB per 7.36 hours (221/30 hands per hour) = 4.785 BB/hr

A little short of 5BB, but I rounded it up the first time around for brevity.

Obviously this is oversimplified, because the math assumes the hand plays out the exact same way every time (e.g. we win the pot against a short stack)

Good job calling MP1's raise the first time around - optimal play!

Now, just calling is not an option. If you just flat, in addition to giving the initial caller free cards, you are also creating what is called a protected pot (i.e. all-in player can not be bluffed out). Then, once the flop comes, there is no side pot and when you bet your LAG opponent knows that you either hit the flop or had a big pair to begin with.

Make it $175 or $200 total. Then, same amount on the flop. Then all-in on the turn. If he sucks out after you got $400+ in the pot preflop, so be it. This is the chance you should be willing to take with AA.

Bingo!

Although this isnt entirely incorrect, I think at live poker, if youre an unknown and youre 4 hours in and havent 3 bet even once yet, you can blast a 3 bet into the next aware player who raises at the table profitibly because he will give you credit for a big hand. It will also let you avoid the unfortunate situation of being 4+ hrs into a game you havent 3 bet in once and being dealt AA.