Reads: Villain is late 30s early 40s "bad" reg. Not a full timer but 1-2 days a week sorta guy. Generally always has a lot of chips but think he buys in deep/1k as a std. In the past two hours I've seen him lose approx. 2k with a cooler, a few bad calls and one really bizarre turn semi-bluff raise w/flush-draw vs a bet and a call after flop checks through when he was the pfr.

History: Only significant pot we've played this session was after he and a few others limp I raise KQs from the blinds and get 2 callers. It comes Q J 4 TURN J RIVER J. I bet flop, bet turn, and check river. He checks behind and mhig.

Image: The hand prior to this one I raised out of the SB and bet bet and got a fold. I've been hovering around even for the session.

Villain limps early, 2 other limps, hero makes it $35 from BTN with AA. Villain only caller.

FLOP($80) 5 4 2 Villain c/c $50

TURN($180) 8
Villain c/r my $115 to $285 fairly quickly. Villain has $300 behind, I cover.

Basically getting 1.9:1 here if we treat his raise as a shove.

Under "normal" circumstances I would lean towards irritating fold but given all the info, I was torn. Thanks for any thoughts. Also, I know it's mostly bad that I have the A

Looks like only hand you could be scared of is 67 if villain is the type of player to protect his hand on wet boards (chances are he would c/r on flop with set or two pair).

I believe he would raise it up a little more with a flush draw to get you off whatever he puts you on (God knows what that is LOL). He doesn't seem like the type of player to fold for $300 more with a draw so a smallish raise on his part doesn't seem to accomplish much with that holding.

I would almost have to shrug and fold in this spot because straight seems most likely.

PF I make it more like 45 given the hand histories.

I think we find a fold to his c/r OTT.

What is V calling OOP with PF, c/c OTF, then c/r OTT and becoming pot-committed?

In addition to the 67 suited (which I think is unlikely), we should be worried about the low pocket pairs 22-1010. As will given the history, I would also include FDs, KQs or another suited connector to.

Edit: Fold>shove >> calll

Trying not to get monsters under the bed syndrome here but the small raise is weird. I think 88 makes sense because he could flat preflop and OTF with an overpair. I also think most times in these low stakes games if you are check raised on the turn you need to be looking for a reason to fold. Sets make more sense than the straight IMO.

You're going to be behind or still against hands with equity. If he has just a flush draw you're still only 80/20 and if he has a pair and flush draw your about 65/35. If he has a set or straight your effectively dead. So it's just about doing the math at where his range falls.

Rough estimate would be:

Has only flush draw 30% of the time
Has a pair and flush/straight draw 20% of the time
He has a set, straight or two pair 45% of the time
He has complete air and drawing dead 5% of the time

30% * 80% equity = 24%
20% * 65% equity = 13%
45% * 5% equity = 2.25%
5% * 100% equity = 5%

24+13%+2.25+5% = 44.5%

So assuming that he has a flush or decent draw combo 50% of the time, and cold bluffs 5%, then you have 44.5% equity. Given that there is a 2:1 pot odds giving you 33% minimum to call I guess it can be plus EV?

However, I think most live fish are going to be way more top heavy to sets and straights here so in all likely you have 20-30% equity against his range. In this spot I lean towards folding unless I know villain is just spewing on any draw combo.

Would not have checked the first hand. You probably left money on the table there.

As for the hand in question - given his description and recent history, I probably just GII here. With his early limp, this can be all manner of PPs and more than a few combo draw type hands. I'm not super excited/fistpumping, but I don't think I fold.

PF seems fine .. PSB raise with 5 players still in the hand ... maybe $45 to look more like a steal. But you got it to HU which is what you want, so that looks like a nice bet size.

More on Flop .. If hes calling, hes calling ... PSB+ again IMO, especially on a board like this where a 5-card hand can be made with a lot of the deck.

I think you jam here and live with the sets and make him pay 'extra' for his draws .. Having the As is 'not good' here though I agree. This comes down to your image more than his .. what is he putting you on here that he would create action against?

How often does he raise? You mentioned the semi-bluff but he seems to want to call or open, not raise. So when he does raise we do need to pay attention more. GL

Balugaaaaa

Whale

Thanks for all the responses.

Interesting, I feel like the likelihood of a missed draw bluff is much greater than the underpair call, but obv depends on lots of factors that are hard to define.

Seems like a reluctant fold to me. Players at this level hardly every turn bluff, and since you have the As a huge combo draw is not there..

I sigh and fold