It's not clear if she was the original raiser, but my understanding is that she isn't, and she's cold 4B'ing over our 3B, and we'll be going to the flop OOP if we flat call.
Honestly, I think you're over-thinking / over-complicating this situation. Older ladies who 4B (cold or otherwise) to 40% of their stack don't always have a fold button, especially if they've been waiting to pick up a big hand. I'd say they usually don't fold after 4B'ing, and they're going with their hand more often than not. So I think I'd just 5B jam pre.
Seems to me that calling off 41% of our stack pre effectively pot commits us to get the rest in, either pre or post, no matter what the flop is. She might see it the same way, such that she's calling off the rest 100% of the time when we 5B jam, not just 75% of the time.
If we're assuming she can get away from her hand pre 25% of the time, it seems reasonable to analyze the assumptions for post-flop. Your only assumptions appear to be that you're planning to fold if the flop comes k-high, and that she's going to jam, whether it is or isn't.
First off, if the flop comes k-high, it cuts the combos of KK she can have in half, down to 3. Granted, she can still only have one combo of AA. But if we're assuming she can fold KK pre 25% of the time, which seems like a debatable assumption, it seems reasonable to balance that by assuming she might 4B with AK pre at some low frequency, such that we might give her 1 or 2 out of the 6 combos of AK.
If we give her 1 or 2 combos of AK, it's a 50-50 or at worst a 60-40 possibility that we're chopping with AA, losing to KK, or beating AK on a k-high flop. If the pot is ~$900 and she jams $600, we'll be getting 2.5 to 1 on a call, which would be the correct odds if she only 4B's AK 1/6 of the time. If she 4B's AK 1/3 of the time, it's a huge error to fold.
So, even if we think she might 4B with AK pre just 1/6 of the time, we're basically pot-committed to call off the rest on the flop. Even if we're 90% certain she has no AK, not jamming pre becomes problematic post, on a lot of boards.
She might jam a k-high flop with the one combo of AA, because she's putting us on AK, effectively bluffing us off a chop. Or she might possibly have AK, if she happened to break the pattern and 4B it pre this time. If she did 4B with AK pre, she got the best possible flop to jam the rest in, figuring we'd have 5B pre with AA/KK, and likely putting us on QQ/AK at best.
On the other hand, she might slow-play KK by checking back on a k-high board, not wanting to scare us away with QQ. So when she jams, it doesn't necessarily mean she's got it.
What if she just checks behind on a Q-high flop, because she's worried we have QQ, and then the turn is an A, and she decides she's just done with it? What if the flop comes ace-high, she checks back, and then folds to a turn bet?
What if she's happy to check it down all the way to the river with KK, on any board, and is only jamming AA on any street? Are we going to go check-check-jam, no matter what the run-out is?
What if we have black aces and the flop comes 987 all diamonds or hearts, or JT9 two hearts / two diamonds? She's free-rolling us with red aces, and only a 40% dog on an all diamond flop with red kings. Are we folding if she jams a monotone or two-tone flop, if we don't have the right suit?
The flop is going to be have an ace or queen specifically around 22% of the time, but the combined odds of it having either an ace or a queen are around 40%. Likewise, the flop is going to have a king around 22% of the time, but have either an ace or king-high around 40% of the time.
The flop will be monotone 5% of the time, and two-tone 55% of the time. It's only going to be rainbow about 40% of the time.
If we're not considering ourselves pot-committed when we call off the $410, then I think we need to consider all the post-flop scenarios that will let her get away from her hand, or possibly allow her to steal the pot from us.
Seems like getting the rest in post-flop could be problematic at least 2/3 of the time. Even if we believe she can fold pre 25% of the time, I'd rather jam pre knowing she'll call off 75% of the time than take a 67% or greater chance that the board will be problematic.
