I don't know how people get such specific reads (that seem very incorrect) to range someone like this.

Need more of a read on old lady. If you have none, I think this is an easy fold. Most old lady's at 1/2 aren't check-raising with TP or especially a draw.

Unless you have a read she plays draws or top pair very aggressively like this, or her calling range against a raise is premiums only (which makes AQ and KK in her range), it looks like you would be drawing to 2 aces, a bingo two pair (that doesn't fill up her two-pair), or a backdoor flush or straight.

grunch: fold

only description we have here is "elderly lady" so i'm putting her in omc profile. not pushing draws with basically all of the effective stacks. board is certainly open to both straight and flush draws but i'd be weighting a set or 2p (3-4) more than anything else. if i had a read other than elderly lady i may take the shot and shove it.

Yes, of course. I was merely pointing out that we have the 1 in 24 chance of hitting runner/runner to the nuts.

Best case scenario old lady has KK. Baby set isn't out of the question at all, and I don't see a raise with top pair.

After the flop bet, hero has about 60 BB left. It's a gross spot, but unless this lady hasn't played a hand in two hours, I'm not folding. If effective stacks were deeper (>150 BB), then I probably find the fold button.

Don't we have to look at the combinations? These seem like the possible hands of the old lady and the number of combinations given your AA and the flop:

AA 1 combo
AQ 6 combo
QQ 3 combo
KQ 12 combo
KK 9 combo
44 3 combo
33 3 combo
5d6d 1 combo
XdXd 90 combos

You are ahead with at least 27 combinations (let's assume that most XdXd are unlikely) and behind with 10. With 1.7 : 1 pot odds, it looks like a shove. If you think she could have XdXd, it's a no brainer. Can you correct my reasoning?

She's not equally likely to have each of those combos. For instance, she's less likely to take this line when she has KQ than when she has 33 or 44, so if we simply count up the number of possible combos for each, we're assigning too much probability to KQ and not enough to 33/44. (Also, there are 6 combos of KK, not 9.) imo though, and as wj94 said early on itt, there are enough possible combos of AQ & KK in her range to make getting stacks in +EV.

Most likely reason for the raise is that she's protecting her hand. Unless you can pull her from the TIGHT list, she's probably tight-passive more than tight-aggressive. Given nothing more than an age and gender read (if you can find a bad play of hers to share with us, then we can play with the auto assumption of tight), she's tight.

She's protecting against the flush, not betting top pair with a flush draw. The only combos for top pair/flush draw are KdQd and QdJd, IMHO. AQo for tptk is possible, but I think she's way more weighted toward sets here. Given that she just check-raised you and did it with such aggression, TPTK isn't her hand. She should have donked the flop with TPTK. Raising on a semi-bluff is also atypical here. The only question to ask her is which set she has. I really think she's so heavily weighted toward sets that unless you can justify something you've seen her do that gives you cause to think otherwise, she hit a set. She has KK here less than the 93% of the time others seem to think. Even against a range of KK and 3 sets, the fold is right.

She has a Queen. Shove. Easy game.