2/5, effective stacks about 600. Reads and table conditions: vil 1 is a young kid from ireland who is wearing the aggro young guy uniform. He sat down 2 hands ago so that's all I have. His friend is directly on my right and is pretty aggro for a live 2/5 game. Villain 2 is a cute asian girl who has been playing pretty passively. I've only seen her show down 2 hands, both of them TPTK that she's won. She folds a lot preflop and maybe plays 15-20% of her hands. The button on this hand has shown a propensity to squeeze IP, I've seen him do it 3x already.

I'm UTG with AdAc and I raise to 20 (hoping to get a few calls and a squeeze
I get 4 calls, including the irish kid in MP and the asian woman in the HJ.

Pot: $107
Flop: Kd7d5c
I lead for 80, irish kid raises to 280, asian woman flats. Action folds to me. What do you guys do here? And more importantly, why?

The kid has FD and the asian chic has a set.

Your backside flush outs are limited due to the kid's FD.

Fold.

In my experience the asian chick can as easily have Kx. She is passive, so probably not that good of a player. I'm more than positive that this girl won't fold AK/KQ/KJ/KTs when facing a bet and a raise. I'd say the irish kid can just as easily flat a flushdraw multiway, especially when facing a c-bet from UTG despite being 5way on the flop. Therefore I think he is actually more likely to be the one with a set.

May be but still a fold no?

It depends on the opponents but I would consider fold here.

When I guess correctly I'm usually killed at least by one opponent.

Other times, I regret folding obviously, like two FDs or 1 FD + TP.

You lead out, aggro throws in a HUGE raise and the passive Asian girl flats...

That reeks of set. The absolute bottom of her range here is AK and I would say she would tank call AK so there should be a timing tell.

But AK is unlikely but possible. 80% of the time she has a set.

I fold here and don't even worry about. I mean, this is a prime example of when/how we should read a villain for flopping a set.

Puke fold but we gotta fold... She has a set here like almost always unless she is fishy passive but your description really doesn't infer that.

So fold

I folded. Kid had 69dd and the lady had KQo. I didn't know she was this terrible until after the hand. I think based on my available info, I made the right fold as this is obviously the absolute best case scenario for me (except her having AK I guess)

How did the board run out?

Just curious.

I absolutely hate it when this happens, that is, when our initial read of a player is off and it costs us money.

Its like we can't help but assume certain villains (especially passive villains with low VPIP) are nittier than they are when in reality they are just passive bad.

I tend to give my villains a wider range on flush draw boards. Usually, the flush draw makes our villains more aggressive with their draws and other villains will often call down lighter because of the FD on board.

But given the information you had at the time, I think a fold was correct. Just sucks when you realize your read was off.

So the real question is, was there any opportunity for you to have gotten a better read off of villain prior to this hand? What were the circumstances to her other TPTK wins. Did she call down big bets with TPTK on scary boards? If so, then you have the info you needed to make the correct play here and call. If not, then you have to make some assumptions and fill in the gaps until you get new information/data and thus your fold here was still correct.

Without knowing results (I scrolled down, sorry, but you posted results way too fast). The fact that we have the ace of diamonds in our hand greatly reduces the amount of flush draws that irish kid can have.

I would put irish kid's range on combo draws, 2 pair, sets.

So your hand vs that range is:

Board: Kd 7d 5s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 65.704% 65.70% 00.00% 9757 0.00 { 77, 55, 9d8d, 8d6d, 75s, 6d5d, 6d4d, 6s4s, 5d4d, 5d3d }
Hand 1: 34.296% 34.30% 00.00% 5093 0.00 { AcAd }


If it was just you and the irish kid, you're calling 200 to win 467 which means you need 29.99% equity to break-even, which you are getting. So if it was just you and the irish kid, I would call, and shove on a non diamond turn. Really unsure what I'd do on a 5 turn since your equity is then 27.65% vs his range then, and you'd have 300ish left in stack with 700 pot and you need 30.03% equity to break-even.. There are a really good number of -ev cards for you on the turn..

I think the least variance play is the fold now if it was just you and the irish kid.

But with the lady in the middle, it is quite tricky.