1/2 game at a local card room. Max buy in 200

AsAh utg +2 open to 10. Sb and bbs call pot 30

Sb: never seen te guy before but from what I've seen in about 30 minutes of play is one of those headphone wearing younger poker players who doesn't say much. Saw him raise a limper to 12 otb and call down 3 donk bets from the limper with KTo on T83ssXxQx and was
good. Besides that he raised one hand from MP, older tightish guy calls, then he bet 3/4 pot and then folded to his raise on a T94 or something like that flop. So seems solid from what I can tell. Hero has 195 to start hand sb covers

Flop: J99ss

Checked to hero, who bets 21. Sb calls

Turn: 6h

Non spade on flop was not a heart. Sb checks, hero bets 52, sb tanks for 45 seconds and jams. Hero?

Should we bet the turn? And if so how much? What should our plan be if we do and don't bet the turn?

Forgot my image. Early/mid 20s young guy. Had played 2 pots where I raised pre from the blinds and didn't bet when the flop had 2 overs to my TT, and raised otb and folded to a limp/re-raise a couple of hands later.

Played fine. Now call. You're getting about 2.5:1 odds. Villain only beats you with 99/T9s/98s/JJ and an unlucky 66. I'd say there are 9-11 combos you lose to. That means you only need to beat 4-5 semibluff and Jx combos.

What's with the weird bets? 21? 52?

Hard to give much advice without eff. stacks. I like the turn bet. Sets up 2/3 PSB for the river. Obviously the raise changes these plans. I may have bet a little less to not feel married to my Aces.

Turn Pot ~72 Turn Stacks~169?
Bet 52 (will assume call) call 52

River pot~ 176 Stacks 117 headed to river

AP tho
Call 117 to win 293
I think he has enough draws, Jx/pp's to make it a profitable call.

What would be important info is how he perceives you. I.e. What is your image. <~~~~Edit: wrote before reading other responses.

Given the board and the read on villain, wouldn't it be better to check behind on the turn and call a reasonable river bet? Or does "pot control with an over pair and position" not count in this situation?

OP - did you show the TT hand? It seems like villain could peg you as a folder to aggression, so this could easily be taking a shot at you figuring he has plenty of FE.

Turn is a clear bet, we can still charge for the numerous draws while also getting value from a stubborn Jx. Pot control not really important/applicable in this spot since we are at a pretty shallow effective stack size. A c/r jam on the turn does look strong, but I think a player of his demographics has enough semi-bluffs and weird spaz hands where I'm calling. Against an OMC nit I can find a fold most likely, but your opponent is anything but that.

Pot is $289 and it's $113 to call, so you need 28% equity. I think his most likely value hands are JJ, 99 and A9s. I think he folds 66 on the flop and doubt he'd flat T9s or 98s pre but I suppose it's possible. You have the As, so what semibluffs does he have? Maybe a naked 78? Shouldn't other semibluffs be c/r'ing the flop instead of the turn?

I have a hard time thinking of *any* semibluffs he should play this way (other than maybe 78ss). But your hand looks like what it is, and maybe he's trying to take advantage of the fact that your range is capped and his is not. He only needs a few combos of bluffs to make calling worthwhile, so I'd sigh and do that.

I think he needs 40% equity to call as there is no more betting that's going to take place. I use straight odds for calls like this. Someone tell me if I do this incorrectly and why it's incorrect.

The equation is bet/(pot+bet), not bet/pot.

yeah. I would check the turn. there is 70ish in the pot. If he donks out on the river we can call without risking too much of our stack.

as played......does he have a 9 or not? I would call just based on his bad bluff attempt against the OMC

If the betting is still going I agree. On an all in call I think calculating your call bet as a what you stand to win is silly.

Is that your standard line for an overpair? Bet/check/bet?

Right. Sorry, misread the action. Hero is getting 1.5:1 odds and needs 41% equity. I still think there are enough Jx and draws that may shove.

I did not. Limped to me in the bb, raise 17 3 callers. KJx flop we just give up and fold when someone bets. Literally the first hand of the table

I like betting the turn given V's prior history of calling down 3 streets. I think turn is a call, stacks aren't that deep and I think there are enough FDs, Jx and overpairs in V's range to make calling profitable.

That's a pretty long tank ... too long for my liking. I would feel much better about an insta-shove than a 'too long' tank shove.

Yes, I miss value, but I have been checking these Turns a lot more and been a 'happier' person for it. If you are committed to your stack then that's different, but to b/f here is bad IMO. It' a decision you make before you bet though, not after the shove.

These are WAWB spots more than OES/F draws IMO. Nothing wrong with some pot control on the Turn and even checking through the River if V gives off some body language. We have 2 pair or are crushed. I let them see a free River and go from there when playing 1/2. There are plenty of 9x hands in the SB for 1/2 players .. $10 is 'nothing' to call PF OOP for this 'type' of player.

I may get blasted, but to 'challenge' a paired board at live 1/2 either gets you a small win or a big (bigger) loss. GL

Either I play in much looser games than most of you, or you are all nits. Bet call seems super standard against unknown who has already shown hes not a nit by calling down 3 barrels with tp.

lyse is correct. you have to call 113 and stand to win 113 + 176 = 289
thats 289:113 or 2.56:1 (28% equity)

If you find yourself getting tripped up on these things, just benchmark against some known facts.

1) if there is no pot then you need 50% equity to call a bet (because you need to be at least flipping a coin)

2) if you are facing a 1PSB, then you stand to win 2x Pot and it costs 1x the pot to call. So for every 3 times you call, you can win once and lose twice to break-even. so you only need to win 1/3 of the time (33%).

3) facing 1/2 PSB you stand to win 1.5x pot and it costs .5x pot. So for every 4 times you can lose 3x and win 1x to break even. So you only need to win 1/4 of the time (25%).

when you win, it doesn't cost you the bet. this is why the formula is bet / (bet + pot). it doesn't have to do with more betting to come.

Yes. Thanks.

Villain who calls down 3 streets with top pair isn't check-raising on the turn with top pair. He is calling. So remove Jx from his range.

When hero bets $52 OTT, his hand is nearly face up. IME tank-shove against obvious strength = nuts/nearly nuts. Only exceptions might be OESFD's... exactly 2 combos.

So fold. AA doesn't win 100%. And it doesn't have to lose the whole stack every time it loses. Without seeing V bluff like this (other than one C-bet/fold against OMC, which is hardly comparable), putting bluff/ semi-bluff/ spazz/ Jx combos in his range to rationalize calling based on only needing to be good 28% is just rationalizing bad play. When you are beat, you are beat, and it's OK to save the last $113.

Completely disagree. Putting a random on "no Jack's, only oesd as bluff" is extremely mubsy. If you fold, you lose and don't get any info. If you call and lose, at least you have some information on his play. You should easily have 28% equity against a non-nit in this spot. Folding is terrible unless it's a known weak passive or OMC who suddenly turns up the aggression.

I dont think that is extremely mubsy at all. It is just trying to take into account how he would react with certain hands, and as we've seen him call down 3 streets with TPGK already we can probably assume that he would not overvalue top pair in this spot. I personally would heavily discount Jx and most flush draws in this spot because we have the As blocker and seeing how he played a similar strength hand already. I also wonder how much more likely he would be to C/R the flop with his draws in order to realize his equity compared to the turn. Also agree that a turn C/R all in is usually a nutted hand.