Quote:
Originally Posted by Man of Means
Ugh, I don't want to fold here bc v1 is fairly wide and v2 has a lot of AQ, Kk, JJ. But we can imagine the turn going through same action and then river being a ???
Would have rather used a flop lead and see how they react. If v2 overcalls or raises then am prob done.
I can't remember ever 3B'ing out of the SB, the BB cold-calling and the initial raiser on the BTN over-calling. OOP against these two V's, I wasn't sure if I should c-bet this board, or if I did, what size I should take.
I didn't see the point of c-betting 1/3 pot or less, unless we're trying to induce someone to raise for value, so we can more easily fold. But we can do that "see where I'm at" thing by just checking. If V1 bets and V2 raises, we can fold and save $80. If the action checks through, we can make a delayed c-bet on a brick turn. If it checks to V2, and he bets, we can flat call.
Betting 1/2 to 2/3 might fold out one or the other V, but we'd still be OOP with no idea where we were at, facing either a call or a raise, and possibly even a raise and a call. I figured V1 would probably call with any piece of the board, and V2 might want to come along with the odds he'd be getting.
All we'd be doing is bloating the pot, MW and OOP, not really knowing more than we already did.
The problem with calling the flop was that either opponent might have 2P or better, or might have 1P + a straight draw that picks up a BDFD on the turn, with a small enough SPR to jam or call off a jam. Even an A or a board-pair on the turn wouldn't fill me with confidence. The only bricks would be 2-5 of clubs, but they do us no good if we're already losing to 2P+.
No matter what the turn card was, I didn't see the action checking through, once V1 bet flop and V2 called. I figured V1 would jam almost any turn card, with less than a half-pot sized bet left behind.
If we flat call flop, and V1 jams turn, I figured V2 would only call off the jam with a fairly strong hand, knowing we might over-jam, so we'd be forced to fold if V2 called. Even if V2 folds, we'd still need to win 23% of the time to break even on a call. It was hard for me to figure out what range V1 would need to have for us to flat call flop knowing we might have to call a turn jam.
Calling flop knowing we might have to fold on any turn card didn't seem to make any sense. Even if the turn checked through, we'd still need the river to check through again, which seemed extremely unlikely.
When action got back to me, it seemed like a fold or raise spot. But if I raised, it felt like I'd be turning AA into a bluff, to rep KJ, and hoping for folds. I'd rather turn JJ into a bluff, double-blocking KJ and J8 and all the 1P + OESD combos, with 10 outs to improve to a set or straight. AA blocks nothing in either V's value range, other than AQ, which we're crushing.
There was $600 in the pot by then, and even a min-click puts V1 all in. If V1 called, which seemed likely, it sets up a jam-or-fold spot for V2. He's never folding straights, and probably not sets, so we'd only be trying to fold out his 2P, and deny equity from worse hands that could catch up.
I figured my raise would have to be at least $500 to get V2 to fold if V1 called, and if V2 did fold, he'd probably be folding a hand we were beating, since I didn't think he'd easily fold 2P, getting 4.5 to 1.
It just didn't seem like a good spot to keep putting money in, since I could never be too far ahead of both opponents' ranges, and was more than likely behind at least one, if not both.