Hero - 19 years old, seen as a reg from talking to other players and dealers, probably seen as aggressive since im 20 years younger than the next youngest player at the table

Villain - Aggro bad-ish reg. He tends to play really aggressivley because he is really wealthy and knows the other players care about the money a lot more than he does. I don't really have a read on him, but know he is willing to make moves for large amounts of $.

OTTH

Villain opens to $10 at 1-2 from the HJ off a 1000 stack, 1 caller who has like 200, and Hero 3! AcAd to 40 with 600 to start (thoughts on sizing? I think 55-65 is better here considering stack depth with main villain. I sized down because i was in position, but still I think minimum 50 after the fact). Villain calls and inbetween guy calls.

Flop ($125): KsTs4d

Checks to hero who bets $95, looking to get value from Kx, QJ, and spades. Villain tanks for a very long time (60-90 seconds where he has never taken more than 10s before in my ~20 hours playing with him), and calls, and the other guy folds.

Turn ($305) Js

Villain thinks for about 10 seconds and leads for $200. Hero?

Brutal turn but we can't fold just yet given description of V. Call and evaluate river bet sizing, but there's also merit to folding now if you know V is almost guaranteed to keep applying pressure OTR.

V is acting like he can beat AK. Just because he's aggressive does not mean you shouldn't believe him.

I fold.

I folded also, but I'm wondering what hands you put him on to fold here.

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I folded also, but I'm wondering what hands you put him on to fold here.[/QUOTE]
It doesn't really matter. He's going to bet big again otr. So it's not just this bet, but probably 300+ otr. With a good read, you should know whether your hand is good enough often enough to call.

Since you don't have a good enough read, then you shouldn't pay such a big price to see.

The long tank otf indicated strength. And the Js ott took away the majority of his flush draws. He probably can't have KK, but he can have TT, AsXs.

From villain's history it seems like if you call now, you are going to have to be prepared to face another bullet on the river. As played, the only river that realistically helps you is on of the non spade Q, and even so you might still be beat by Axss given hero does not block that.

In addition, it is hard to find a hand that we are beating now other than AsK and maybe 99 and he just decided to take you off the pot. I personally am not prepared for call off ~200bb knowing that all I am doing in catching the absolute airballs, or the very few AsK hands out there.

We don't have the As which villain could easily have here. Everything (TT, JJ, spades, AQ) got there on the turn. The only hand you really beat that V could have is AKo with the As (or to a lesser extent KQ with the Qs). I would let this go and fold.

Pre-flop is perfectly fine. I know we're playing NL and not PL but I like a pot-sized raise to be the ceiling in terms of raise sizes. Here, it would be $43. So, $40 is perfectly fine. Larger sizings mostly fold out hands we want in, and people on here advocating larger sizings tend to be a little too worried about getting drawn out on. There's three more streets of play left in the hand.

Seems fine to fold, we have a lot better hands to call with

Flop is way too big

that´s the correct way to think about this.
we can´t really know what he has, we do know however how we construct our range, and on this board, we have KK, JJ, TT, QQ with Qs, AA with As, AQ, maybe even KJs and some bluffs with suited spade hands that can continue.

Just because we were at the very top of our range preflop does not mean we cant be pretty low in our range on the turn.

Yeah I probably fold too given descrip. That might have been the worst card in the whole deck for you and since you have already stated that V applies pressure, I would treat the $200 bet as an all in since you will only have $265 left after calling the $200.

So, it is basically calling $465 to win $770 or 1.65-1...you need 40% equity versus his range which I don't think you have anywhere near enough (I would peg you at more like 25% versus any reasonable range that includes a continuum of hands that you are crushed by, that you can outddraw, and that you are ahead of currently).

I just called this hand into Bart Hanson's CLP podcast, and he advised calling, and bluffing any river spade. Thoughts?

first reaction to that is a big lol

Hey bro do you have the link to that episode?

What was the reasoning for calling and bluffing any spade OTR?

It feels like Bart Hanson is wearing his shirt inside out on this hand

I like the preflop sizing. Nothing to say there.

Flop...kind of big, no? Like you can't value bet this size with anything but AA and sets, right? This board is kind of wet so I'm definitely in favor of bigger here, but I like the $60 neighborhood and to start pounding if the turn is safe.

Turn, I think you can just fold here. That card is the nut worst one to peel off and you've already repped a huge hand based on your preflop 3 bet and flop sizing. If he wants to now turn his QJ that just turned a pair of Jacks into a bluff w/ picked up equity, good for him.

Yup you both are right. Given our sizings, we've basically already said we have a range of like:

AK, AA, TT, KK, AsQs

on the flop.

So this card comes and he leads into us? This is almost never a bluff, he'd have to be making a very advanced play with a hand like QsQ for it to be so. So against value, our equity is terrible.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ZPzBR1k2bw

his reasoning is that he very rarely has a spade on the turn, and will c/f KJ or Q9 or AQ OTR.

Ah I see
Gonna watch it now and see what new perspectives comes

Thanks for the link and explanation! Great day

Ugh..... I have been studying this hand on and off since evening(couple hours ago) and Bart Hanson is right.
I assume that V wouldn't be calling 3bet light with As(Rag)s preflop, and so, could only come up with 3 combos of flush(might have more that i didn't include when I'm counting) and conclude that i don't like calling the TURN bet even though there are only a small amount of flush combo in Vs TURN range, but V could still be betting to protect, probe and extract with second best hands and if we do call or raise, there is no telling that V will fold to us. Calling off 100bb to bluff catch with a hand that can only beat TP and below while there are many other monster hands which could be betting against us? Ugh.. the odds are good but their perceived range doesn't match up. Folding OTT

You said bart hanson is right, but also say you would fold the turn. Bart said he would call the turn. Which is it?

Does anyone else think so too? The flush/straight comes only 30%~ of the time. With AAp, I feel that it's a good size because we will still get paid off by gutshots, OESD, straight draws, QQp, TP which we beat, and as well, we are IP, so... I feel that it's a pretty good size, no?

Any counter arguments?

this is heavily dependent on what range of hands your opponent has preflop that are continuing after the flop bet. We can't put him on a range from behind a computer screen , this is something you have a better feel for because you are actually at the table. so based on the range you would put him on , you could run it through flopzilla and see what combos you beat vs what combos you don't beat. tough spot for sure though so I cant really come up with a simple answer

Ps, I meant that Bart Hanson was right that there is little flush combos in their range OTT

bart hanson believes he is crushed but wants to call 100bb ott to bluff for half pot on the river in the 23 or whatever % of the time the flush hits, I see

Did you mention on the call that the V doesn't care about money? I doubt a bluff works enough to justify Bart Hanson's advice.

With one caller in between, I raise preflop to at least $55-60. Charge the rich gambler to outflop us. He will probably call preflop, and if he doesn't I don't mind taking down the pot uncontested. Flop I bet 1/2 pot. AP, I snap fold turn.