Quote:
Originally Posted by Siberian13
A♠︎A♥︎HJ $1100 in stack. Bad Guy UTG has $700. Only thing I’ve seen from this guy is that leads all flops OOP he hits no matter if he gets 3bet.
UTG raises $15, I raise to $60. Only he calls. Flop is J♠︎10♥︎3♣︎ Pot $127
Player leads for $40.
So first question, what do you do here?
I raised $120. He calls. Pot $367
Turn is 9♦︎. He leads for $180.
So 2nd question, what do you do here?
I folded. He didn’t show. But I just felt like based on the player he has no less than two pair here.
Let me know your thoughts on this one.
Well, let's see. What are you NOT beating on the turn that he could plausibly have?
You're losing to any two pair. But that means he raised preflop with J10/J9/109. Not impossible, but... Furthermore, I would expect him to re-pop you on the flop if he had two pair, so J10 is probably out.
You're losing to a set. That, unfortunately, comports with him having JJ or 1010. I think he would have check-folded 99, and whether he would have raised UTG preflop with 33 is dubious.
You're losing to KQ. That, unfortunately, fits well with his actions so far.
Of these, I think KQ is the likeliest.
Now...could you be beating him?
Possibly. He could have KK or QQ. He might play those as strongly as he did. Other than that...I can't really imagine him having something like AJ or KJ--not because he fired on the flop and called your raise--he would probably do both with those hands--but because the turn 9 lit a fire under his butt. J9? Implausible, given his preflop raise.
So without trying to game out how many "combos" of this that blah blah are possible (a useless exercise under any circumstances), I'd say you're losing a vast majority of the time here. You may not even have any outs.
Fold, with a heavy sigh. You only have one pair, after all.