I have at least $575 in front of me. UTG is sitting with $150 and he raises to $10. This is the third hand that hes played after sitting down for 20 minutes. UTG +2 calls. He has about $250 and is a pretty wreckless player. Fold to CO who calls. Has about $850 and is a decent player but will usually pay you off if he has two pair against a straight. I call. SB calls, BB calls. Both SB and BB have around 100ish. Pot is $60. Flop comes out

10 5 9

Check all around. CO bets $30. I reraise and make it $130 to go. Everyone folds. CO calls. Pot is $320.

Turn card 7

Villain bets $150. Hero??

Criticism is much welcomed. I'll post the results after a few responses.
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Raise PF. BTN position with such a loose table you're turning 99 into a set mine with that call. Making it 50 pf looks strong and might get you HU in a race situation with the initial raiser with dead money in the pot.

Now if your intention was to set mine with your 99 to try and bust the CO that's another thing altogether. At the turn here you prob call and take your ten outs to the river expecting to get paid when you hit and giving up when you don't and he leads. You're getting 3/1 on this call to try and improve and since you've said he'll pay you off then you need to call.

I agree there is a lot of merit to raising PF to get it HU. 99 is too strong of hand to see a flop with so many players and CO seems to be only player nearly as deep as you, which makes set mining not as profitable.

AP you're getting 3/1 but you're only ~22% if he already has a flush, the fact that you could still be ahead (set over set or 2pair) and villain will pay you off if you hit makes drawing to your 10 outs +EV imo.

effective stacks and pot size required.

I don't 3bet a ton but this is a great spot for it. Btn, and this deep, and too many callers, and to set up a lower SPR.

AP, really like that raise otf.

I don't think V is leading with a sd that the 7 completes (and definitely not calling the extra $100), and he would probably just shove TT, so all we're behind is flushes. You're getting a little over 3:1 on the money, you're a 4:1 dog against flushes, but if you think you can get at least another $150 if you boat/quad up otr it's a call.

Another line of thought is that raising does nothing. I also don't see V not getting more $ in otf with 55, so raising gets exactly nothing worse to call. And folding isn't an option, unless this V is some genius who's going to c/f a flush otr if the board pairs.

Agreed on all points.

What hands do we really think the V calls our $130 with on the flop though? I'm thinking overpairs, 55 and maybe TT. Don't think too many FDs call us. QJcc is possible. Other than that ... ? (Although sometimes it amazes me what people call with in these spots, like 85cc.)

QJo will call you. All flush draws, even 2c3c will call you. J8 and 78 are also O/E straight draws. T9 will call you, though that is an unlikely hand.

My initial intention was to set mine the CO. That's the reason why I called. Thinking about it now, should I have reraised PF? Then if I hit my set push it all in? I'm just thinking of how I could've played this differently. Maybe on the flop when he bet $30, instead of me making it $130, should I have raised to $200 to take the pot right there? But then again would he have folded to $200?

Grunching -

Preflop - Good. Great setmining situation and you will be behind UTG's calling/shoving ranges.

Flop - Perfect. Your big bet-sizing properly charges this drawy board. $150 would be lower variance but $130 isn't bad either. Shove if raised.

Turn - Fold. Villain's flat pre, weak lead on the flop, and flat call of your raise strongly suggest he had a draw. It was probably the FD, which hit. He might be bluffing with a SD (which might have improved to a combo draw) but his is far less likely and not worth committing most of your stack.

Competent villain is never flatting the flop raise with two pair. Competent villain also wouldn't size his flop lead bet so weak on such a ridiculously drawy multi-way board. Same is true of sets, just a little less so.

Hero has seven outs on the river, a 15.4% probability. He'll need better than 5-1 to call a made flush.

$130 was a good raise number, committing most other players if they wanted in and ISOing CO and his big chip stack. If you really wanted the CO money you should have 3bet pf though. The fact is you're both about 300bb deep so something as small as a 5bb raise pf even 6 way is only 30bb, making it difficult to get stacks in quickly vs CO.

$200 seems way too large and you'd probably lose value in the long run.

Where do you get 7?

3 Ts
3 7s
3 5s
1 9
-----
10

This is horrific

The way he is playing this strikes me as a set or strong flush draw(likely K/A high).

The flop raise was an exceptionally good play. You defended your hand well and set up for commitment on safe turn.

Unfortunately, this is a bad turn card. I think against a competent player, there is some bluff %, but now that the board is ugly, I'd be wanting to avoid commitment. Puke fold. I can definitely see him having 55, but, more often than not you are setting yourself up to get stacked with a call.

Where do you play? I'll stop by tomorrow.

What am I missing here? We're getting express odds to call.

We're a 3.5:1 dog versus a range of flushes, right? (and its this low because quite a few straight flush possibilities in there).

If we call $150 here then the pot is $620, we don't even need him to call a river bet for this to be +EV call.

Yuck. I'd probably call. I don't see him betting a draw there on the flop once he's so close to getting a free card. Why would a skilled player never flat that raise with two pair on the flop? I think two pair is a reasonable hand to put him on.

Flat pre is fine. Unless utg raises a lot of hands from early I hate 3betting here and hoping for a flip at best. Flop raise is a bit excessive...I'd raise to 100-110 myself but if villain is bad enough to call a bigger raise then obv your raise is perfect. As played u can only flat turn and probably fold to a big river bet on a blank. If u boat up just ship it over any bet or check

IDK, A pot size raise here is $120 which I think is totally fine on a such a drawy board. $130 is close enough imo. I agree with everything else you said.

Thanks for the responses guys. I called the $150 on the turn. River comes out J and villain bets $200. Was thinking about his range. Set of 10s, 5s but he would've reraised me on the flop. JQc, AJc, for sure a draw that hit on the turn.

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nh

Wait... So we don't know what he had?

Yes. Sorry about that. I ended up folding to the $200. He showed A J

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First we need to realize that we are playing deep; about 300bb versus the CO.

Hero PF: I’m fine calling if we just want to set mine. I also like squeezing with this hand which may put us heads up with UTG+2 who sounds like is a weak player.

Hero F: So the decent CO leads for half pot making the pot $90. Our hand is vulnerable on this board and we know this. There are all sorts of bad cards on the turn that can come that could completes a villains OESD or flush:

K: QJ a straight
Q: J8 a straight
J: 87 a straight
8: QJ a straight
7: J8 a straight
6: 87 a straight
And of course any club isn’t good.

With your raise your offering 2.2:1 (31%), so the flush draws (1.8:1, 36%) and OESDs (2.1:1, 32%) are getting the odds to call if they get to see two more cards (assumes not more betting). When we raise to $130, we’ve invested $140 total into this pot, which is about a third of our stack. We need to remember the commitment threshold here: $191 would be a third of our stack. Normally we don’t want to invest a 1/3 of our stack and fold. Again, we also need to remember that we are playing deep. The SPR on the flop, versus the CO is about 10.

I like a raise to $180 which puts 1/3 of our stack in and gives him incorrect direct odds to call with tow more cards; if he calls it makes the pot $420 and we have $385 behind. On the turn I like shoving any safe card (non K,Q, J, 8, 7, 6 or club).

As played, you raised the guy on the flop and now he is donking half pot to you. Tough spot to be in. Is he donking a flush after you raised the flop? Is he donking a straight after you raised the flop? If we call we are committed to the hand, and we will likely see a shove from V on the river. The V just put half his stack in on the turn, I don’t think he’s messing around. I fold.