Quote:
Originally Posted by ECGrinder
This is an interesting hand and your analysis seems good. Calling is certainly your worst option, you just aren't good here often enough and you have better hands to call with.
This is an enticing spot for the 3b bluff. The problem is that you will often be bluffing vs the 2nd and 3rd nuts. You need to answer these questions before you go for it: Is villian capable of making very big laydowns? Is villian extremely disciplined? Is villian tilting or losing today? Does villian view me as capable of bluffing here? Do I appear tilted/losing today? And finally, can you handle yourself (live tells) when sticking $4k out there with 0% equity?
If everything computes in your favor, $3800.
The pot is 1920 after villain raises to 1025, and I currently have 350 in the middle. If I raise to 3800, I am risking 3450 to win 1920. I need villain to fold 65% of the time to break even. Assuming he folds all straights and calls all flushes, this play would profit $800.
Assuming my analysis of 4 flush combos and 15 straight combos is correct, I could raise to 7500 and villain could call all flushes, and I would still break even if he folded all straights.
I'm not actually targeting flushes, I just want him to fold straights.