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89s on BTN flops Top 2P 89s on BTN flops Top 2P

01-26-2023 , 02:32 AM
1/3 NL, 9-handed, everyone is straddling 6 UTG

Villain is eff stack at $430ish. He’s a middle aged regular that plays TAG and can occasionally bluff

Hero dealt 8s9s OTB

Folded around, I open for $20…V in SB calls along w/BB and UTG (straddler)

($80) Flop 289r (no spade). check to me I bet $60. V calls and others fold

($200) Turn Td, check, I bet $100…V min raises to $200. Knowing my opponent I should probably fold. I’m getting great odds but he only has about $150 behind. I only have 6 outs to beat a straight and could be dead vs TT. Thoughts?

($400) river is As. He of course shoves for $150 and I tank for a while. I can beat JJ, JT, doubt he has AJ or QT. Of course losing to QJ, 67, and sets. Doubt he has AT. Now I sigh and call
89s on BTN flops Top 2P Quote
01-26-2023 , 03:05 AM
When he raises on the turn he's telling you that you are beat. So now it's just a matter of how much you believe him.

BTW, it seems like he could also have T9.
89s on BTN flops Top 2P Quote
01-26-2023 , 04:04 AM
You’re right. T9 also. I definitely felt like I was beat but I just couldn’t let it go. It’s a fatal flaw in my game when I have a strong hand and I’m getting a decent price
89s on BTN flops Top 2P Quote
01-26-2023 , 05:55 AM
Pot on river is 600. If you call turn you should call river. I usually make a snug fold in this spot cause you can only beat a bluff
89s on BTN flops Top 2P Quote
01-26-2023 , 11:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by OmahaDonk
Pot on river is 600. If you call turn you should call river. I usually make a snug fold in this spot cause you can only beat a bluff
Yep, correct on pot. It was late when I wrote this. I guess I can’t edit it. So fold on the turn? Perhaps I should have checked back turn?

Last edited by Siteburner; 01-26-2023 at 11:57 AM.
89s on BTN flops Top 2P Quote
01-26-2023 , 12:24 PM
Turn c/r doesn't seem like the move to make with JT etc, it's usually a "please call" minraise with a nutted hand.

I could see a turn check back being ok. 76 and T9 got there, and bet $100 puts you in a commitment bind. Plus you can get river value from JT, QT, etc if it gets checked to you or call a smallish bet
89s on BTN flops Top 2P Quote
01-26-2023 , 12:26 PM
PreFlop: V flatted your raise from SB. Likely has 22-TT (maybe JJ) and all broadway suited. If he did not 3 bet your button raise with 99+ and broadway suited, I would label him tight/passive.
Flop: V flatted your 2/3 bet with 2 PPL still to act. V has all the sets, TT (maybe JJ), JT, QT and QJ if they have backdoors.
Turn: Against V's perceived range I probably check the turn and evaluate river. When V min check raises turn to $200 after your 1/2 bet, leaving himself only $150 behind, he has "IT." I think we can discount JT and QT. There is no reason to min check raise with those hands. We also have a decent hand though. Unfortunately, all of V's "IT" hands beat ours. Sure we block 88 and 99, but there are other sets. So even if we think all our FH outs are clean, which they are not, we're still not getting direct or implied odds. Tank and sigh fold for me.
River: For same reasons as turn, sigh fold.
89s on BTN flops Top 2P Quote
01-26-2023 , 12:47 PM
I'm fine with preflop, although if we expect it to go 4ways (which is still common in this spot in lots of games) then I'd rather open limp the Button.

SPR is 5, so we're probably committed here with top two. If flop was flush drawy I think there would be an argument for overbetting the flop to shove the turn. But without a flush draw, I think I'm cool with playing for stacks over 3 streets. So I'm fine with flop bet.

Against these types of players, I think I'm ok with our turn bet and then I just quietly fold to the check/raise. It's not impossible for him to be doing this with an overpair, but mostly it is simply a hand that beats us. So I'm ok with changing my commitment plan mid-way to this action.

Not sure what we're beating even given this price on the river. We really need this guy to go off the deep end once and a while for this call to be profitable. The other thing to keep in mind is that he made the flop call with 2 others to act behind him, so it isn't as if he's often floating OOP super light.

GcluelessNLnoobG
89s on BTN flops Top 2P Quote
01-26-2023 , 12:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Siteburner
I have a strong hand
By the turn, we don't have a strong hand at all to this action. With no other reasonable worse two pairs on the board that the villain could be overvalueing (T2/92/82, really?), the only value type hands we are beating are sneaky overpairs (and most, although admittedly not all, are 3betting QQ+ preflop, which leaves just the occasional JJ). We mostly only have a bluff catcher here to this action, and it's doubtful this guy is bluffing as much as he has to be to make a calldown profitable.

GcluelessNLnoobG
89s on BTN flops Top 2P Quote
01-26-2023 , 12:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Man of Means
Turn c/r doesn't seem like the move to make with JT etc, it's usually a "please call" minraise with a nutted hand.

I could see a turn check back being ok. 76 and T9 got there, and bet $100 puts you in a commitment bind. Plus you can get river value from JT, QT, etc if it gets checked to you or call a smallish bet

Yep, I agree with all this. I think after all comments the best line is to check back turn and evaluate river.

Spoiler: V had 67 suited
89s on BTN flops Top 2P Quote
01-26-2023 , 12:55 PM
I don't mind the turn bet as I think we can still get value / protect our equity against stuff like pair + draw.

GcluelessNLnoobG
89s on BTN flops Top 2P Quote

      
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