MP opens to 6bb (300bb)
CO calls (90bb)
Hero 3b BTN to 20bb K10dd (220bb)
SB calls (150bb)
MP calls
CO calls

MP had been opening quite a lot maybe should have sized up a little bit

Flop Q82dds (81bb)

Hero bets 35bb
SB calls

Turn Q82dds 8c (151bb)
Checks through

Should I have been betting turn. I checked since I don’t think I’m getting him to fold a Q and not folding an 8c. I can also take a free card to my flush or maybe K

River Q828ddsc As (151bb)
Hero bets 65bb ??

What hands should we be betting on this river for value any Ax ?

I like your line but I think preflop and river we may need to size up a bit. We block missed FDs. I think Qx makes up a big portion of his flop continuing range. So turn is a bad card to bet and river is a good card to bet.

We still have AA/AQ/QQ/AK.

Occasionally we run into his AQ. But we are polarized and he is more likely to fold QK/QJ/QT to a bigger bet (3/4 pot +) on the river.

The way you listed the action made me think we were OOP. V is SB. So the fact that he checked the river to us makes it much less likely he has 8x or AQ.

His best bluff catcher would be AdXd but again he can’t have AK/AQ/ATdd.

Why are we 3-betting? Not saying it's wrong, but what's your reasoning here? Value, to isolate, to get folds, etc.

If we do 3-bet I'm making it 25bb+

As for River, this is 1/1, if we're going to make a big bluff, we need to know that SB has a folding button? Our default at this level should be we need evidence that they do. If so, I think it's a reasonable bluff as some nit/tight perso is more likely to muck their QJ or less, putting you on something like AK.

Yeah sorry maybe the way I wrote it. We are IP. Also I was trying to bet river the sizing I would if I was betting an Ax. Like AK AJ etc

Well since the MP had been opening quite a bit I thought I can take this down pre. I agree I think my sizing is too small should have been around 25-30bb

The difference is you want him to fold not call with Qx 😉

pre is too small

river bluff is ok i guess, you rep AQ that played pot control on the turn and Adxd hands. if i was villain i'd call with a diamond in my hand and probably fold otherwise unless ive seen you bluff this spot b4.

True I want him to fold what size would we bet here

I’d make it 125. Psychologically V may fold more often when it’s over the $100 threshold.

I’m not really worried about balance at 1/1 which is why I may size down a thin value bet or even a fat value bet if my target is Qx, yet go bigger to increase the likelihood of bluff success.

Cheers thank you !!

No worries. One thing I would add - I would be much less likely to bluff this river if I was OOP. V checking to us is valuable info and likely means he has a marginal hand.

Yeah of course. I agree. Most likely would have gave up if I was OOP in this hand

Not a huge fan of 3 betting this PF just b/c it plays well multiway and guys who are laggy pre are more likely to call your 3 bets so a hand like KTs doesn't have as much FE PF as you'd want for a light 3 bet. You didn't explicity say it but given that SB called your 3 bet cold and you've also got another cold caller in between, I'm guessing this table is playing pretty loose so that's another reason I wouldn't expect a 3 bet to take it down PF. As others have said if you are going to 3 bet this guy PF, you need to make it much bigger say 25-30bbs. You 2 are both so deep that MP is going to want to call more often for the implieds

Flop and turn are fine, I don't love the 8 as a barrel card b/c it doesn't really scare the opponent

On the River, love the river bluff, you can credibly rep the missed NFD along with AK, AJ or other Ax garbage that he doesn't have but you need to make it bigger to move him off a queen somewhere between 100 and 115 feels about right for a credible value bet. Against a typical nostudied opponent they will just see the size of the bet, hem and haw and call b/c the odds are so good, they're not thinking about MDF, bluff:value ratio or any of that other stuff that we think about. All they see is that the ace hit and you raised pf and checked the turn so you must have AK or the NFD and they need a reason to fold, 65bb into a 150bb pot isn't that reason

Yeah I agree with your statement here. Thank you