1/2 100SL

Villains are all loose passive weak players post, pretty straight forward pre, will chase some draws but wont bet them. They typically only raise pre with the nutter butters.

Hero in the BB with 7 8

$177 effective stacks

4 limpers
Sb completes
Hero checks BB

Flop ($12)

K Q 7

SB leads for $10
Hero raises $25 - I made a small raise to a)keep the pot controlled b) to isolate (these players dont see the pot controlled bet all they see is OMG someone bet and someone raised they must have like big hands)
CO raises to $75
SB folds
Hero?

CO would limp PP's here, broadway cards, big Aces. I am pretty sure he would raise QQ+ pre but with these old guys (70's) they sometimes do some weird things. He's loose pre but tight post. He has some disabilities and it generally takes him a while to get his bet out, but he was able to put his bet in pretty quickly. Almost like he had it ready.

I get $177 all in here i think. Given read that its an old nit, I am not super happy about it. Its a wierd spot since folding might be "ok" if you're certain you're only good if the flush comes.

I think the guy most likely has KQ (?) or 77. This is assuming he would raise QQ/KK pre (yet I have seen old guys limp all premiums before). Can villain have JTdd or ATdd here?


I think I remember Doyle Brunson saying that a pair and a flush draw is a hand "where you can't be dead" - since if your opponent has a higher FD you got a pair, and if opponent has made hand you got the FD.

Old man with his money ready = set.
Factor in that he came over the top of your check raise for 3x, and I think it is a fold. My guess is you are drawing to 8 outs.

this is the first thing I took out of his range. most live players would call here with those hands. They want to get there as cheaply as possible. This guy never ever bets on the come in this situation versus a bet and a raise.

Meh, its ok to fold here. It looks like CO has 2 pair or better and he's not folding with these stack sizes. Its not like there is a ****load of dead money out there and our hand is not an absolute monster. A7 would be harder to fold IMO (the A potentially gives us 3 more outs).

If a diamond comes on the turn would villain pay off a river value bet? (meh, we're not even deep enough to justify calling)

Only reason to get it in is if you want to play like a maniac and play -ev for some long term +ev but I can't see any value in doing that vs this table.

Old Man has exactly KQ here like %70 of the time. He's not folding. I think this is a clear fold even with the backdoor straight draw

This should be pretty simple really. Whats our pot odds and whats our equity against KQ?

I doubt grandpa is folding.

i agree this a folding spot.
also, im not 100% sure about the raise to keep the pot in control.
you dont have a made hand yet, so i feel as if you would want to keep the pot smaller.

!!??

There is no turn and river that can give us a str8

lol...oops, I thought he had 98

Its not a made hands in the sense that I have the nuts, but I wanted to be able to isolate the SB so that I could bomb the turn. My plan was that if it went HU I was betting just about every turn card hard. I knew it was possible that I got a caller thats why I didn't go absolutely ape sh** OTF with the raise. I still have some pretty good equity in the hand and I figure to have a pretty good amount of FE OTT. Its a small world after all.

The 3bet got me because it was smallish. I figured my outs to be any 7 and any diamond. Like Dom said this is KQ a very high % of the time. In fact I am so certain it was KQ that I would of bet the farm that he had that exact hand. Oh, and yes, if a 7 or diamond hit he would of paid me off... he wouldnt of even batted an eye at it.

Cmon man... this is why Sharks have a week dedicated to me my friend.

mom has a tattoo that says "son" as well?

hm. $50 for one card to win $210 if you hit, that's if he pays off a flush or trup 7s. Perhaps the turn card is scary sometimes and he checks, sometimes he bets $50 again and you have to call. This is really borderline. I guess you could call if you are certain about him having KQ and paying you off if you hit (which is quite likely since his stack is 40% of the way in)

If it was me, I'm folding to the raise for sure. Honestly I wouldn't have re-popped the small-blind in the first place.

Just call SB's lead, his donkbet usually indicates he has a king and if the board bricks out he's probably not folding. The price you're getting is fine plus there's implied if you smash a seven or eight on the river and put in a big raise, since he'll think 'lol flush draw missed, i caw'. If somebody behind raises on the flop, then SB probably isn't going to let go of a king for $20-25 more and will probably call, thus giving you the bare odds to call to hit.

an 8 on the river is likely no good. Hero is drawing to a diamond or trip 7s.

Well I meant against SB's range here. He's probably got a bare king, and since he folded to CO's 3bet that means he obviously didn't have two pair so an eight probably would have been good against him if CO didn't wake up with a hand.

Against CO an 8 is obviously no good, and there's even a chance a 7 might end up coolering the crap out of us if he limped with K7s or Q7s, plus we're drawing semi-thin against KQ regardless which is the hand he most likely has. Which is why I'd just fold to CO's 3bet.

Pot is: 12+10+25=47 and he bets 75? Clear fold IMO.

Actually its more like $50 for $122

Interestingly, if he has exactly KQ and if the 9 diamonds and two remaining 7s are outs then we have 39.2% equity in this hand.

If we were to get all the chips in on the flop then our pot odds would be $152 to win $376 or 40.4%.

Its still a fold but I guess its closer than most people would think.

I guess now we get into poker philosophy questions, do we really need to risk our whole stack in such a 'at best break-even' spot? Surely there are going to be better spots for us to get our chips in.

The numbers of course change again if there is a little more dead money out there or if villain has a set or K7.

If we really knew that a 7 or a diamond on the turn is going to win us villain's whole stack then it would be an easy call on the flop. We have 22% chance of hitting on the turn and we would be paying $50 for a chance to win $377 which is 13.3%. Personally, I think villain is not stacking off that often and the 7s are sometimes going to be false outs. I would be more inclined to call if stacks were deeper and I had a crazy image giving me more chance of being paid off.

OP already explained why he did that.


As played, the original plan backfired... I fold to Gramps.

+1/just call SB. You're not stealing this, you need to hit. The more people in the better.