77 on BTN. Do I steal here? - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

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77 on BTN. Do I steal here?

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01-08-2015 , 12:13 PM

Havax

grinder

Join Date: May 2013 Posts: 597

Hero ($400): Late 20s playing TAG. Probably viewed as playing tight because I've not been involved much and have been bet /folding or check/folding a lot of pots I've been opening due to a lot of varying reasons.

V ($400): 30s black dude he's new to the table but haven't seen him been getting out of line.

Hand: V limps UTG, 2 more limpers and I raise to $15 on the BTN with 7

. BB loose passive player calls, and now V limp/raises to $37. I call, BB calls.

Flop ($111): A

.

Everyone checks.

Turn is a 4

. everyone checks.

River is a 2

- both of them check to me. Hero?

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01-08-2015 , 12:37 PM

HH2010

adept

Join Date: Jun 2014 Posts: 925

it wouldn't be a steal, it would be a valuebet. 88+ is not folding.

In a limp/3bet/3handed pot I am not value betting here

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01-08-2015 , 12:38 PM

watch4sharx

stranger

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 8

What do you think villains limp/rr range consists of? What do you think the BBs limp/3bet call range is?

At my casino a limp/rr that isn't a shove from an unknown is pretty much always KK/AA and sometimes QQ. I would expect to see AA/KK/QQ maybe AK from villain and something like AK/AQ and less possibly KQs from BB.

The two checks could mean total misses, QQ or less wanting to get to cheap showdowns or slow plays hoping you bet.

You could make the argument to bet/fold here but against weaker players in my card room id just expect to see hands that have our 7s crushed so often that I'd check back river and make a note.

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01-08-2015 , 12:41 PM

DeathCabForTootie

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 5,722

Bet the turn, say around half pot. You can get 88-JJ to fold more often than you think.

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01-08-2015 , 12:41 PM

Havax

grinder

Join Date: May 2013 Posts: 597

I knew pretty confidently he had TT-QQ. Question is if he's a trapy/fit fold postflop, could an overbet or large bet get him off his hand? Should I have tried on the turn?

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01-08-2015 , 12:46 PM

HH2010

adept

Join Date: Jun 2014 Posts: 925

I do think turn makes more sense to steal than river since there is no threat of future betting. I doubt TT-JJ folds now. Maybe $75+ will do it, but player dependent. Your hand certainly doesn't look like an Ace or a King after checking twice.

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01-08-2015 , 12:54 PM

boasorte

centurion

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 105

bet turn, as played check it on the river w/ sdv unless you think you want to overbet pot on river like 1.5x, but im not sure we get folds from QQ enough given action.

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01-08-2015 , 01:06 PM

au4all

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 2,872

Quote:

Originally Posted by HH2010

I agree 100%.

But we made the call pre-flop getting about 4-1. We're about 4-1 to hit our set by the river. Villain is allowing us to play the hand profitably whether he folds to our bluffs or not.

Maybe it makes sense to bluff on a card that's more likely to have given us a set than a 4, unless we play 44 and 77 identically?

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01-08-2015 , 01:09 PM

DeathCabForTootie

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 5,722

Quote:

Originally Posted by Havax

I knew pretty confidently he had TT-QQ. Question is if he's a trapy/fit fold postflop, could an overbet or large bet get him off his hand? Should I have tried on the turn?

Betting river looks FOS. Checking flop & betting turn looks like an expert slowplay K or an A looking to get value now nobody has a K.

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01-08-2015 , 01:16 PM

#10

johnny_on_the_spot

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 11,608

You rarely, if ever, get called by worse and rarely fold out better hands. Couple that with an UTG l/rr and you are utterly dominated pretty much 100% of the time. Betting is lighting money on fire.

Check river and be happily surprised if you won

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01-08-2015 , 01:16 PM

#11

HH2010

adept

Join Date: Jun 2014 Posts: 925

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeathCabForTootie

Betting river looks FOS. Checking flop & betting turn looks like an expert slowplay K or an A looking to get value now nobody has a K.

+1

Although my favorite is when people slowplay AK or AA by checking twice here.

The nitty old guy who goes "Well if I bet, you couldn't call..."

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01-08-2015 , 01:20 PM

#12

Havax

grinder

Join Date: May 2013 Posts: 597

Only reason I didn't want to bet turn was I thought there was an incredibly high chance he flopped quads or a FH. Players that like to play tricky UTG limp/re-raising and then flop the joint on top of that always slowplay it more. I guess I could just bet/fold the turn but I didn't want to be burning money away in a sense knowing that there's a high frequency of him checking flop and turn with a super nutted hand here.

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01-08-2015 , 01:30 PM

#13

PokerDharma

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 2,212

Definitely should be betting Turn here.

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01-08-2015 , 01:50 PM

#14

cheesefist

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 376

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeathCabForTootie

Betting river looks FOS. Checking flop & betting turn looks like an expert slowplay K or an A looking to get value now nobody has a K.

This.
/Thread

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01-08-2015 , 01:51 PM

#15

DeathCabForTootie

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 5,722

Quote:

Originally Posted by Havax

IME very rarely do super-nutted hands wait until the river to get $ in the pot. Thinking this way is MUBSy. Putting villains on quads or a FH in this spot is a stretch. Betting here gets folds from better hands while potentially getting value from QJ/QT/JT.

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01-08-2015 , 01:56 PM

#16

JGP417

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 195

The more I think about it the more I like your line. I think I would of bet the turn through. I think we can fold QQ+ and below most of the time and if we get called we know he has either an A or a King. If he shows up with quads or a full house he got close to the min value for it so that's a victory for us. But, I think a bet on the turn gets a fold every 1 out of 3 times which is what we strive for.

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01-08-2015 , 02:08 PM

#17

iraisetoomuch

banned

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 37,500

2/5 - 1/2 pot the flop.
2/5 - 1/2 pot the turn.
If he takes more than 30 seconds to call either street, I'm going to likely fire the river again for 2/3 pot.

But as played, always check behind.
He will call you and say 'I guess you got there'. You're not winning the hand.

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01-08-2015 , 03:25 PM

#18

paperboyNC

old hand

Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 1,793

I would have tried to steal the flop. The downside is that a lot of villains will check call hands like AQ or AJ, but I try to steal a lot more when two pair flops because it means it is less likely the villains connected. As you are already surmised, it's a huge win when you fold out 88-QQ.

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01-08-2015 , 03:34 PM

#19

trucdouf

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 2,216

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeathCabForTootie

Betting river looks FOS. Checking flop & betting turn looks like an expert slowplay K or an A looking to get value now nobody has a K.

This.

Missed your chance by not betting turn.

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01-08-2015 , 05:51 PM

#20

johnny_on_the_spot

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 11,608

Quote:

Originally Posted by Havax

This logic is exactly why you should bet the turn, because bad players think they should slow play so they project that their opponents would do the same.

A lot of Ax hands will think you flopped trip Ks and will just give up because they expect a bet on the river and don't want to call knowing they're behind.

When they call you can check behind if they snap call and possibly bluff river if they tank

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01-08-2015 , 07:34 PM

#21

AintNoLimit

Coach live/online NLHE

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 6,399

The turn will be the place to put a bet in here for sure.

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01-08-2015 , 11:49 PM

#22

bombonanza

adept

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 1,173

+1 to the turn bet. now check.

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