$1/2NL

V1 ($400) 70ish years old. European immigrant I believe. Probably playing around 85 vpip, mostly just limping. Very early in the session, I saw him call a turn and river bet and lose to TT on a J99xx board. So he's not a nit by any means.

V2 ($250): 30-35 years old asian. Just sat down to the game. He seems like he's at least experienced. Doesn't seem too fishy.

Hero ($350): I've been playing with V1 for about 5 hours. I've isolated him several times, and I've been cbetting and double barreling with success. He's fairly fit or fold post-flop. He can be sticky, but I dont think he bluffs often, if ever.

The hand:
4 players limp, hero checks 7s3d from BB.

Flop ($8)
6d 5h 9s

V2 bets $10, V1 calls, another random V calls, hero calls.

Turn ($45)
4d

Hero leads for $30. V2 calls fairly quickly. V1 announces 'raise' and makes it $130.

Hero?

GII. If he flopped it with 78, NH. A set that's getting scared of the board is much more likely though.

Seems like a standard stack off spot. Many more combos of baby sets, two pair hands and 32 versus villains having a 78. If V1 had the nut straight, why raise? The pot would have been $135 on the river with his call and large enough to get stacks in on the river. My question is do you think V2 would overcall with those types of hands? If not, shove and GII.

Thanks for the responses guys.

I'll post results and my thoughts in roughly 24h

A few things I forgot to mention:

- I'm 25 years old and the youngest player at the table.
- V1 is the mark at the table (in my eyes).
- He's not a drooler, but he's a little more willing to play with me than the other players at the table (people are limp/folding PF a lot to my $10-$15 raises).

A guy with an 85 VPIP has way more hands we beat here than the 12 combos of 87 (16 minus the 4 we block). Jam for value; he's not folding 32, sets, and some of his 2 pair hands. We run into the nuts sometimes, but there's no way we can start getting cold feet with the 2nd nuts against V2 here.

This. You have a powerhouse and only losing to 87. You also can hit an 8 on the river to chop IF you are behind (unlikely, obvi, but still possible). Given your image, I don't think V can put you on 73, even as a blind hand. Most folks don't see that you flopped double gutter, so he may think it's unlikely you called a gut shot on the flop. His range here is very wide and only 87 beats you. The 4 looks like a total blank and over pairs or sets are his most likely hands here, maybe two pair.
You know the difference between jelly and jam? You don't jelly it in. JAM!!!

Grunch

V has 12 combos of 87, 12 combos of sets, and prob some 2 pair combos. You're ahead of that range by a smidge so I'd get it in unless you have a good reason to believe the other V has a monster.

shove

Yep, shove. Too many river cards will either genuinely hurt your or kill your action. Very easy for V2 to have a backdoor flush draw here. Charge him through the nose for it. If V1 flopped the nuts, gg and reload.

I think you are beat way more often then others at considering.

My guess is he's really not raising 32 here.

B/ crying fold turn.

but then why would you call flop if you're gonna fold turn? i think folding is nitty. if they have the one hand that beats you, they have it, it is a game of gambling after all

Folding is about as nitty as it gets

Shove>>>>>>>call>>fold

Sometimes, the nitty play is correct. Folding may or may not be right in this particular situation, but I think it's absolutely horrible to never re-evaluate your plan in the face of changing information.

V1 sounds like the sort of loose-passive player who would just call down with two pair, so the question is if you can mostly eliminate sets from his range because he probably would have raised those on the flop.

all in

OP Results:

of course it's horrible to never reevaluate but fearing one exact hand is never ever going to yield profit. we need to evaluate a range and against his range we're winning.

if he's got exactly 78 and slow played it on the flop then wp him.

.....so what happened?

why have you discounted 44? that would make more sense - hits and then goes mental.

include 44 and we have ~60% making this an easy shove

he's never calling the flop with 44.

At most we can put one combo of 44 in his range, but I think even that is unrealistic.

With people deep stacked left in the hand? Live where you play must be radically different to where i play then!

Either way i'm not letting second nuts go - if you're including the other sets in his range then i think you have to include 44 because if he's not got 44 and then gone mental on the turn, why would he not of just gone mental on the flop?

There exist some extremely loose passive players whose raising range in this spot is exactly 87. Whether villain is this sort of player is an open question.

V calls down with any piece of the board according to the OP, so he can easily have a set or 2 pair here. If he has exactly the one hand that beats us then it's gg. I've seen these types of villains play AA like this. Basically he doesn't know what he's doing. To put him on the only hand that beats us is too narrow imo.

You should be concerned if V is an extreme calling station because those players call down with anything and sometimes only raise with the nuts. We don't have any information about his raising range, but those players exist.

Some decent players have a clear leak where they don't give enough respect to raises by a loose-passive player who never bluffs.

But just because he never bluffs doesn't polarise him to nuts only. He could do this with worse than the nuts here thinking he has the nuts because he's a fish. Without any information here on his raising range we shove it in and if he has the goods then we make a note and readjust.

vidar, you don't have to put him squarely on 78 to make a fold here. If his range is flopped sets, 78 and 23, with a lean towards 78, we aren't in very good shape.

I don't think Vidar is suggesting that. I think his remarks are based more on the idea that his range might be wider than you have it.

You were there and we weren't, so you have access to a lot of subtle indicators that we can't see in regard to his turn raising tendencies. I'll just say a couple things.

1. Although his raise looks strong, we have to consider that the dynamic of him playing fit/fold in previous pots against a young hero perceived as the "constant aggressor" may cause him to go crazy here against us with something like a turned two pair (54 = 9 combos, 64 = 9 combos). Vidar mentions that you may even see something as random as AA that failed to LRR pre. I wouldn't include 6 combos of AA, but I could see including half a combo in his range to account for all the times he's doing something stupid with QQ+.

2. Although we know hero's range should be pretty strong when we x/c to close action on flop and then lead 2/3 pot into 3 Vs on turn, the Vs do not by any means have to know that. They may typically use our exact line from BB with TPWK, and it's easy for them to fail to appreciate that this is a multiway pot. Therefore, we have to be careful not to think of this villain's turn raise based on how strong he should actually be (ie how he would react if he applied proper consideration to the range we are actually representing with our own line).