1/2 nl holdem crazy jacked up bar game in Wyoming
Hero is sitting on 1400 after buyin of 300-

Notes on villian- spewy aggro donk who views me as way looser than he should- he's moving out of town tomorrow- he loves calling big pf reraises w kq off, he's sitting on 1400 after getting 66 ai on 234 9 turn vs a rock for 350bbs and hitting 5 on the river- night is winding down when this hand occurs- we have a lot of history and he thinks "I turn over a lot of garbage"
One side note:

This guy does have a bet sizing tell wherein he underbets made hands and often bets pot w bluffs and semibluffs

The 50 bet on the turn further solidifies my overpair read and tends to make me think he has qqs or kks and is praying for my call/wants not to lose me:




Hero is in sb and villian is 2 off the button


Pf: 3 limps to villian who makes it 8 to go 2 off the button

Hero flats w a cl 10 cl in sb

Bb calls, *all others fold

Pot (28)

Flop
2 cl 5 cl 8 di

Hero leads 21
Bb calls v snap raises to 71
Hero calls bb folds
I put him on an overpair here 10s - kks since I have the ace blocker-

Pot (195ish)


Turn is 10 Di

Hero checks
V bets 50

Hero??????

I want to be able to make this pot huge on river if I hit obviously
What do we raise to and how Do we respond to a 4 b?

Ummm... are we really considering a raise? Flat and be thankful he underbet and gave you no reason to not call on the turn. You put him on something like QQ, and you feel like raising to build a pot? When you're behind? To give him a chance to shut you out with a gigantic 4 bet? Sorry but anything but a call here I think is terrible given what you're saying about this villain.

A club, A, or 10 on the river and you can at least get half his stack...

Villian doesn't sound like the type that likes to fold overpairs so I'm not sure what you're trying accomplish with a raise here. Yeah, it would be nice to stack villian if you hit but it would also be nice to not get stacked when you miss. I think calling the 50 and seeing a river card is a fine idea.

Call, raising is ******ed as it opens up the betting and only better hands will call you.

Easy call OTT. If board doesnt club its probably a c/f if you are certain about his tell... either b/f or c/c on an Ace river (probably a b/f though)... if its a 10on the river its a b/c... if the river pairs and its a club (8c) I'd possibly c/c if he also underbets sets only because I will have two big of a problem b/f the river to him.

You have close to 0% fold equity vs. hands which presently beat you.
You beat all his random bluffs (although there should be basically none, here).

As mentioned, c/r'ing does not achieve anything good. Especially this deep.

+1 to AcePlayerDeluxe's river plans. Consider c/jamming HUGE if you river the nuts.
Edit: actually, against most live players, just lead if you river the nuts.

I call. No need to re-open the betting and get pushed off what could be a big money-making hand.

Yes, like everyone else in this thread this is an obvious call and I like to lead out on any ace OTR for a nice 2/3 PSB and I like the c/shove line with any club although a 2/3 PSB lead OTR if a club hits is maybe even better.
To your question, this is an obvious call AINEC

I just call and probably go all-in if I make my nut flush. Sure, he might not pay off a lot, but the times he does makes up for the times he doesn't vs a sucky pot sized bet. Besides, we turn over a lot of garbage and are obviously just making a move at the pot on the river and he could have 3K in his hands if he just calls.

I actually don't mind an open-shove if we hit a club otr. It will definitely confuse him and he can't win if he folds you know.

+1 to the call parade. Yes, you'd like to make playing for stacks realistic if you hit, but do you want to do it on the turn? If he thinks you "show down a lot of garbage," he'll pay off nicely on the river, even if you don't raise turn. If the club comes, I def bet out. Sure he might bet and try to rep, but he might fear the flush and check behind.

BTW, please to be using the AcTc, or AT format. Makes hand much easier to read.

Also, I know you say you want to play for stacks if you hit...that is a dream of poker, but you are 700BB deep. Even a 100BB bet on the river is huge and good. Don't be greedy, play smart.

For all you know, calling this bet, hitting, he might still donk huge AND call a raise.

How are you guys figuring hero can bet $1100 into a $300 pot with the nuts for value? If the 8c comes then what? I don't believe the villain has to necessarily have a big pp here. He only made 8 preflop with a few limpers already in. If villain's undersize turn bet is a tell then it could easily mean he's got a set.

Like everyone else I don't see the need to get spewy and let this pot get out of control with just a draw.

If you want to go ahead and bloat the pot then pull out the min-raise (maybe $125) and call his 3bet if he does so. Then you can lead huge on the river if the flush comes. If you miss, then you're in deep trouble and will prob have to c/f unless u hit an A or 10.

call, pray for clubs, c/r for his stack and then earplugs for his berate

edit: @ mp_all_in - reopening action when we are pretty confident villain has us beat and is happy with his hand is not a good idea at all.

well obviously we're not going to bet 1100$ into 300$ the times we hit, but based on how bad villain is we're definitely going to get our fair share of his stack the times we hit our draw.

and what else would we be betting the nuts for than for value... its definitely not as a bluff...

Is villain really spewy enough to bet an overpair when the flush comes in? Maybe-maybe not. I like the lead out if the club hits which would be more disguised by a check raise on the turn. Altho, as said before, a call OTT is prob the best line. I only suggested a raise since the op wants to stack the villain and he has to bloat the pot somehow.

I'll rephrase the last statement. How do you expect a bet of $1100 (or even 600) into a $300 to get called? I'm saying a value bet has to have a reasonable expectation of being called. And who knows, villain might have 99 and hero is good already.

Its a little late to have a huge river pot at this point and if villain is anything decent he's coming over top of you so big on any amount here that you're implied odds go out the window given the range you described.

Im flatting and letting our aggro dude do his aggro thing on the river, which should be a sizable bet relative to the pot.

If we bet $300, what's the chance villain will call with an overpair? As a guesstimate, let's say he calls 75% of the time (reasonable?) so our overall expected value of this play is $300 * 75% = $225.

If we shove $1100, in order to do better than our $225 expected value above, the villain just has to call a mere 20% of the time (1 in 5 times). My guess is he's calling at least that amount, perhaps even twice as much (say 2 in 5 times, is that unreaonable?), which makes are overall expected value of shoving way way way more +EV than a pot sized bet.

And the percentage difference in calling a $600 bet vs a $1100 is probably measured in fractions (I mean, if he's calling $600, he's calling $1100, no?), and yet the EV difference is obviously huge, so no point in doing that.

Obviously villain/read dependent plus dependent on read/history villain has with us.

GcluelessnoobG