Hi guys, I wanted to get your thoughts on this hand.

Here we go:

1/3 NL - I am in a late position with pocket 10s

Two limps to me and I make it $20. Button calls (villain) and two limpers call the $20
(villain looks very confident when he makes the call and I think to myself he might have a strong hand here.)

FLOP- 678 Rainbow

Check, Check , I make it $40 and villain goes all $150. Which puts me all in. It is $125 for me to call..

Villain has been playing very tight IMO and I feel like there is a zero % chance he is bluffing... I am think he has a set or an over pair.. The only hand I feel like he could have. That I beat, is pocket 99s..

But, I feel like, I have 6 outs.. So, with the 6 outs and the amount of money already in the the pot is this a call?

Curious to get your guys thoughts..

- Thanks

Oh, BTW- I folded the hand.

I am a little confused you bet 40 then he shoves for 150 and it is 125 for you to call?
So if i am reading correct it is 110 to call into a 250 pot , if your reads are right he is loving his hand, you are beating just about nothing,either way it is a trival fold.

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I only had $125 left.. He had me covered.

Yeah, you got it right .. I had it wrong.. It was like $100 or $110 for me to call..

I guess the is probably a fold because were beat so often here but knowing myself i would probably still call in game since we have an over pair and id tell myself were "getting the right price.

The quick "at the table math" for this is the "rule of 2 and 4," which says that with two cards to comes, you have about a 4% chance of hitting each one of your outs. With 6 outs, that means you have about a 24% chance of winning the pot, so you should call if your price will represent less than 24% of the total pot.

Assuming he shoved for 150 more (or 190 total), and you have 125 behind, if you call the pot will be $410. Your $125 represents 30.5% of that total, so you should fold.

The real math is a bit different than the 2 and 4 estimate, but it's very close at smaller numbers of outs. Your chance of hitting with 6 outs is 24.14%. Once you get up to 13 outs the estimate is off by a bit more. It comes out to 52% chance to hit, but it's actually only 48.1%. Realistically, the rule of 2 and 4 is fine, though, as you're never folding a 13 out draw if there is any money in the pot at all and you're not a million BBs deep, so it being off by a few percent is not worth worrying about.

Your 6 outs are not clean. Hitting a T may straighten your opponent.

Here is a calc that may come in handy. Let’s say you have 4 outs with 5 known cards, your hand and the flop. That leaves 47 cards. Take the 4 outs/47 cards left, resulting in ~8%. This means there is a 1 in 12 chance you will make your hand, resulting in odds of 11-1. If you get to see two cards, the odds will be cut in half, about 5-1.

In this case, calling $110 profitably will require a 5-1 payout, or ~$550. Putting bluffs aside, this would be an ez fold since the most you can drag is $250.

GL!

OK, you updated the numbers while I was posting, but the answer is still basically the same.

If it's $110 more to you, the final pot will be $380, and your $110 represents 29% of it. Closer, but still a fold.

And as samo noted, this is assuming all of your outs are clean. For simplicity's sake, we can assume that the chance of him having 99 is a wash, as if we don't hit a T or a 5, we win without hitting.

Thanks for the replies... I will have to do a better job of remembering the hands going forward before posting.. I know after my c-bet he put me all in and I had around $100 left .. I think a tad over $100..

Anyway, I think sometime I fold to easily to a re-raise.. I have found if someone re-raising me. I am usually beat..

But, I think sometimes I and getting the right price to call in these spots and I make bad folds..

Anyway, thanks again for the replies.

Our outs are clean. Or we are a head in the hand.


Still a fold

I agree.. That was my thought as well during the hand..

If you think he has 99 in his range then it’s a call. People do weird stuff so it’s possible he even has other worse hands as well. You need 29% equity. It’s only a slightly losing call against the a set or overpair, a winning call against 2P and a hugely winning call against 99. Even against a range like {66+, T9s, 54s}, which I think is unrealistically bad for us, we have 30% equity and should call.

I think there was a chance he had 99 .


Thanks for the reply

Using the 2-and-4 estimating rule, with 6 outs we need about 6 * 4 = about 25% equity, which is ~3:1.

If it's actually $125 to call, that means he shoved $165 (and thus started the hand with $185). So we're being asked to call $125 to win $275 (I'm deducting $8 rake + $1 BBJ + $1 tip), so only getting a little over 2:1.

But factor in the times he does show up with 99, or hands like 98 / etc., and also considering he did put in >> 10% of his stack preflop, we might have to uncomfortably sigh call this off.

GcluelessNLnoobG

But like GG, I probably would not sigh call it off with my own chips.