I think you are missing the point.

Of course what happens after matters. But we don’t know what happens after. We just have an idea of what happens after.

Example: it doesn’t matter what the table conditions are, I would not play 72o from any position in a full ring no limit hold em game unless I were in the big blind and only had to check my option.

In your simple example, to put it simply, if 2 happens more than 1, you should play your hand. If 1 happens more than 2, you should fold your hand. We don’t play our hand, see something happens and decide after the fact that our decision to play the hand was good. This is why it’s a disadvantage to be OOP.

So no, you aren’t allowed to base your actions on what happens behind you. Because it hasn’t happened yet. The chances of those things happening get baked into your decision to play the hand to begin with. It’s why KTo for example is considered a brain dead fold from UTG but a slam dunk raise when folded to on the button. We have less information so we play less hands.


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Pretty remarkable how your limp-in strategy doesn't account for how much easier you're making it for me on the btn to wreck you on very level, from winning your money now/later, to shutting you out from making money from the CO/blinds. Err on the side of caution means you just lost bc of the laughable amount of information you provide limping>raising. All I have to do is flip in 25 and your range is face-up from that point forward. Deep, you're fckd, zero bluffs, limp 3b ranges are too strong, often isolating yourself against me instead of CO/blinds... deep and oop. If you open raised, I have a lot less options at my disposal and you have only positives that can come from getting called by the spots/less action from me.

Lol at making my life easier against a solid player on the Button by raising when $800 deep when any remotely sane raise sizing will be for a lol pittance (where you can start making some pretty loose profitable calls here).

Gstep1:don'tplaypotsOOPtogoodplayers;step2:somethi ngsomething;step3rofit,imoG

If you open limp, I have far more raises now (depending on others to an extent), and now you’re forced to fold more and get less fish money. Once you limp call and then continue on the flop I’m either stacking your nitfish azz or never paying you off bc you’l have zero bluffs post and won’t ever play for deep stacks without the nuts, so you’re just stone dead and under-realizing with hands that otherwise would have played well pre/made money more often - in addition to waiving your path to have isolated more often against worse players ready to fall for your hand-making-only omc strat.

When you open raise, I have fewer raises (depending on others to an extent), and you can punish me (not that you ever will you’ll just need a hand), for a 12+bb i I get too out of line. Because I’ll have fewer raises and continues pre by way of your open-raise, you get to over-realize against fish, stack them as I want to scream for them to fold, tilt tf out of me, rack up and go home.

Lol'ed at this, nice.

GIneverconsideredmeta-gameG

People end up OOP to good players frequently online and they still win overall with their strategy.

Amanaplan would destroy you in the long run in the setup he’s given. And that’s not a slight at you, because if I just borked my ranges preflop OOP against him by limping in, he’d crush me too.

And you’re wrong. You can’t make loose calls. Your preflop is so bad that you seemingly aren’t even aware that good players generally aren’t calling raises, they’re three betting them. With some exceptions of course (like this hand it’s probably okay to flat the raise with 33 when deep to PFR and weak players are in the blinds). But do you seriously think “good players” are taking QTo to war against your HJ open? That’s pretty easy to exploit

GG go play 10 NL 6 max online for 25k hands and report back on how open limping the HJ goes.

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The flop check helps balance Hero’s non-nutted hands and it is reasonable to conclude hands like sets and smaller flushes, which will provide the most action, will bet to protect their hands.

The turn check raise builds the pot for when V has made flushes and denies pot odds for sets.

The problem is with the river shove. If Hero shoves the river the 23% of the time the board board pairs, the times V has the boat, Hero loses $800. The times V has a flush, Hero wins between $310 and $800. $310 is the most likely because good players with a set or smaller flush are unlikely to call such a large bet in this spot.

If Hero bet/folds 1/3 pot ($200) instead of shoving, Hero loses $495 when V has the boat and gets more calls from V with both a set or flush. So, the 23% of the time the board pairs, you lose less when you lose and make more when you win. The other 77% of the time when the board doesn't pair, Hero wins whatever bet sizing is used.