500NL: Bet str8 on paired bd river, or check behind?
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 1,791
NL 2/5 live, 10-handed, at Venetian.
Villain is a solid TAG. Hasn't overplayed hands, and has made appropriate bets for value. Seems good. He hasn't done anything tricky, but I haven't played with him long enough to feel confident that he's a straight-forward player.
I believe he thinks I'm about a fairly aggro, good TAG.
Hero has $1,200, and Villain has him covered.
Hero has 76s in the BB.
Preflop: 3 folds, MP1 raises to $15, MP2 calls, LP folds, CO calls, Button calls, SB (Villain) calls, Hero calls.
Flop ($90 pot) (6 players): 2-4-5 rainbow
3 checks, Button bets $15, SB raises to $55, Hero calls, all others fold.
Turn ($215 pot) (2 players): 8 (still rainbow)
Villain bets $75, Hero raises to $350, Villain calls.
River ($915 pot) (2 players): 5
Villain checks, Hero ???
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 623
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 2,263
Im definitely betting here.
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 61,667
raise the flop
the line you took looks so much like a set that his turn call plus the board pairing is pretty scary and even if your hand is good he's probably folding... if you bet you need to be praying he has 53s or 65s and that he'll make a crying call
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 53
Preflop villian has good odds to call with a wide range here - I think villian can have A5/65/54/A3/53/43/boat by the river. Your hand looks like a str8/good 2p/trips/set.
His small turn bet is really strange though. If a flush were possible I'd be more inclinded to think it was a block with a set, however, it's fairly weak for him to assume you now made a str8. I 'm inclinded to read it (+subsequent call) as 2p or a 5 (with a draw).
+I'd expect villian to value bet a boat here on the river so the check swings me more towards a 5 or a busted 2p. Bet for value against a 5 or A3 - fold to a raise.
