500NL (2/5 NL Casino) Should I call, fold or raise river in this spot? - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

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500NL (2/5 NL Casino) Should I call, fold or raise river in this spot?

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06-29-2015 , 01:47 PM

MontrealGrinder

stranger

Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 1

I limp UTG with 99. Action is folded around. Villain in the SB (TAG, 600 stack) raises to 20 out of the small blind, Fish (300) calls in the BB. Hero calls UTG with 99 (530). Everyone else folds.

Flop is 9s 3s 10s.

Villain bets 25. Fish calls. Hero calls.

Turn is 10h.

Villain bets 55, Fish calls. Hero calls.

Turn is 8d.

Villain bets 280. Fish folds. Should I call, fold or raise?

My thinking in this spot is that villain has 33, 88, or an As xs flush a large percentage of the time and is expecting to get paid from smaller flushes and A10 type hands.

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06-29-2015 , 04:39 PM

arjunt1

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 234

Did you mistype the hand because you have a boat.

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06-29-2015 , 11:34 PM

Impavidus

stranger

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 9

Raise

The fact that hardly any hands beat you is why I think you should raise. There are plenty of hands in his range that pay you off.

Take your chances hoping he doesn't flip 10 - 9 or 8

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06-30-2015 , 03:41 PM

au4all

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 2,872

Weird betting pattern from him. I don't know which nines you had, could Villain have had T9s?

Do you have any reason to think he barrels eights?

Does he raise T8s from the SB? That's odd, but possible.

Even though the bet seems huge, it's less than a pot-sized bet, so you're getting good odds to call. Probably just shove, but whatever you do I wouldn't second guess it, it's a spot that comes up very very rarely.

Last edited by au4all; 06-30-2015 at 04:03 PM. Reason: Warning that there's lots of people that come to every thread where Hero has more than one pair and say shove. Ignore them.

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06-30-2015 , 03:45 PM

SwolyswoND

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 1,976

Raise flop.

As played, raise turn.

As played, raise river.

Getting anything less than a stack's worth of value in this hand is a travesty.

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06-30-2015 , 04:53 PM

fitzthetaxman

adept

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 768

Raise...at any point, pre / flop / turn / river. You should be comfortable getting it in here. If you aren't you shouldn't be playing.

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06-30-2015 , 05:08 PM

ChicagoLex

journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 245

Not raising turn is the biggest mistake imo, last chance to get value from flush draws and sets up stacks nicely otr. As played I'm probably just calling because V's sizing seems polarizing compared to other streets.

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06-30-2015 , 05:14 PM

SwolyswoND

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 1,976

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChicagoLex

So you really fear the 1 combo of TT, or the 2 combos of T9 (which should be discounted based on PF anyway)?

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06-30-2015 , 05:14 PM

Willyoman

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 10,468

Raise pre.

Raise flop.

Raise turn.

Shove river.

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06-30-2015 , 05:15 PM

#10

Willyoman

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 10,468

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChicagoLex

It's also possible for V to have flopped a flush with AKs, AQs, AJs, ATs, Axs, KQs, etc.

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06-30-2015 , 07:02 PM

#11

WRH

centurion

Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 160

If you failed to raise with this hand at any point, then take up another hobby. You're only losing to two super-unlikely hands (TT and T9). Shove!

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06-30-2015 , 08:43 PM

#12

djevans

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 5,088

Quote:

Originally Posted by Willyoman

Raise pre.

Raise flop.

Raise turn.

Shove river.

This

Quote:

Originally Posted by SwolyswoND

Raise flop.

As played, raise turn.

As played, raise river.

Getting anything less than a stack's worth of value in this hand is a travesty.

Also this

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06-30-2015 , 10:39 PM

#13

CohibaBehike

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 3,651

Quote:

Originally Posted by arjunt1

Did you mistype the hand because you have a boat.

made me lol irl

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07-01-2015 , 04:24 AM

#14

ChicagoLex

journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 245

Quote:

Originally Posted by SwolyswoND

So you really fear the 1 combo of TT, or the 2 combos of T9 (which should be discounted based on PF anyway)?

Thought we had more behind. Mostly agree there's no reason not to shove our last 150 at this point.

I still think V would have a hard time calling a raise here with just the A high flush and I think his bet calling range is mostly hands that have us beat. At this point I'm not worried about Vs hand, I agree V should have the nut flush or busted nfd pretty much always.

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07-01-2015 , 10:26 AM

#15

Javanewt

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 12,913

Now that you are here w/o raising, gii.

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07-01-2015 , 10:40 AM

#16

DonkeyCopter

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 1,320

Why are we limping 99? I prefer to take the lead with 99 pre.
Did Fish have a decision on the river, or snap fold (indicating missed big fd)?
No reads on Villain?
As played until turn, I like a smallish raise to 165 and shove river.

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07-01-2015 , 11:01 AM

#17

Agorophob

centurion

Join Date: Mar 2015 Posts: 136

Riase pre, raise flop. Actually ok with flatting turn AP. GII now 100%

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07-01-2015 , 02:41 PM

#18

jglman91

centurion

Join Date: Mar 2015 Posts: 143

There is a valid reason not to raise at any point in this hand, and that's to keep the fish in the pot. That being said, after the fish folded on the river, I'm jamming river. Everyone saying to raise turn may scare away the fish. I'm fine with trying to get the stacks of two players in this spot.

V raised out of the SB. that should eliminate T8 and T9 from his range., if he's a TAG as you say.

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07-01-2015 , 03:21 PM

#19

Willyoman

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 10,468

Quote:

Originally Posted by jglman91

There is a valid reason not to raise at any point in this hand, and that's to keep the fish in the pot.

Raising (small) on earlier streets is better because that V will give us value with so many draws.

If those draws don't come in on the river, he'll just fold and get away cheaply. So it's better to give him very tempting odds to give us more value and continue with hands like naked flush draws on flop and turn. And it looks like that's exactly what he had - when he got to the river and no spade came, he couldn't give us any more value. He probably had the naked As, Ks, Qs, or maybe even Js.

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07-02-2015 , 02:02 PM

#20

Peter3041

adept

Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 1,057

Not sure about a flop raise because it depends on opponents.

Like a smallish turn raise just to get more money in and you can be repping way more than a flush. River is probably a raise. Too many combos of worse boats and flushes that have to call. If your beat then you get a sick bad beat story.

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07-02-2015 , 02:33 PM

#21

slappy813

newbie

Join Date: Jun 2014 Posts: 46

I like preflop limp. Being reraised pre with 99s sucks, seeing flop with overs sucks. Limping around with 99s is cool with me, and calling standard pre raise from v is standard is cool with me.
Flop call I like. raising scares away lots of hands, maybe getting value from single Ad, Getting reraised big from made flushes.
Turn call or raise is good. For whatever reason V still thinks hes ahead, and other fish is still tagging along he might even call the expected huge donk bet from v on river.
River raise all in. V is only winning with 10 8, 10 9, 10 3 (most unlikely), and 10 10(extemely unlikely, especially with betting patern).

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