Villian is a fish but went on a monster run over the past couple hours and ran his stack up to about 450bb. Recently in the past hour or so he has gotten it in bad a few times and is now sitting at roughly 250bb. He seems a bit tilted from his recent losing streak. He has been 3betting a lot more frequenty over the past hour, and have seen him call down with questionable hands in big pots a few times.

Hero has been playing TAG all night, has been pretty card dead for the past hour or so and has a winning, but tight image.

Hero is dealt AA in UTG+1, eff stacks $750

-Hero raises to 25, folds to villian who raises to 75, folds back to hero who makes it 225, villian thinks for a couple seconds and calls.

-Flop ($450) QQJ
-Hero???

Check and evaluate

Shove.

You're committed with an SPR of around 1. What does V call the four bet with pre? If it's JJ+, AK, you're 66% to win here. Even if you eliminate KK+ 'cause V would go AI pre, you're still 57% to win. If he is wider pre, say JJ+, ATs+, KQs, QJs, AQo+, KQo, you're behind at 44%. This would be a pretty reckless calling range, but possible based on the potential tilt by V suggested in the OP. Roughly that's 36 combos and about half are crushing you. Not great, but with over $500 in the pot, it's too much to walk away from when you are only slightly behind his range.

The problem with a check here is V could easily blow you off your hand with a shove behind with or without a hand. You shoving first has the advantage of getting the rare AA or a single J to fold ( or a least consider it).

He's tilting but i dont thin hes light enough to have JQ type hands. I'd say TT+, AJ+ discounting AA and usually not KK.

Why do you want a Jack to fold ??? And I don't think you can fold anywhere in this hand. Go ahead and keep betting whatever you think KK will call.

So we're committed, but V can bluff us?

And your reason to bet is to try to bluff AA off a chop and get a J to fold (which you have crushed)?

Please elaborate.

CRAI. Hes never checking back the flop if you do, and he will be committed with just about anything after taking a stab at the pot.

I'd bet 150ish and jam any turn. Shoving flop is bad as he may fold a jack or ak and other hands u crush. The key thing here is that ur committed meaning u are never folding no matter what he does and no matter what card comes. Think about the best way to take his money. If he is aggro enough to bluff against weakness then check call and let him bluff.

Only hand that I'm really concerned about is jj but there's only 3 combos of jj so u can't be afraid. He could also have aq but this is a cooler then. Btw I don't think he's ever folding kk and probably not aj here so just bet before a card comes off to kill ur action (any ace, king or jack)

C-bet small, check-call all the way, or CRAI. Never, ever, ever fold.

Basically, any line that ends up getting Villain to put all his chips in the middle is a good line.

this^

Totally disagree with this "evaluate" nonsense.

If I check here, I am trapping to induce action. I am not checking to evaluate whether I should fold the effective nuts.

Bet small to induce a Jam. I would bet $125. If he calls, triple value for value.

great post.

I like the small cbet/shove line as villain probably expects you to cbet everything.

My J Comment was a mistake. Sorry.

Shove recommendation still stands. We're ahead of most reasonable ranges and only slightly behind wide enough ranges to include Qs.

That's not what I mean... obviously there is plenty of time to get stacks in so checking gives him the option of going insane with AK or 1010 something like that, never really folding. Evaluate doesn't always mean fold

Really advocate, checking with the absolute plan of CRAI

If we check, tilty villain is going to level that we have AK and bet into us.

Think betting out here folds a lot of hands, 1010, and maybe even AJ that we want to get action from.

Betting also might fold out hands such as AK or some other air that would have bet into us on the flop.

Lol at shoving in $500 on that board, villan might even level himself into folding aj, KJ, KK type hands.

c/r AI or c/c down are prob the best lines here, way more chance this type of villain is going to try to bluff or overplay a worse hand then just calling off his chips to our bets.

NEVER folding here

I participate in this forum to learn and that is what happened with this thread. My original thought here was wrong. Yes, Hero is committed, but a shove will only fold hands we want to stay in, so a check or small bet OTF would be better.

I assume everyone agrees that Hero is never folding here.


Thanks for the lesson.

Since checking seems like we are trapping, I would bet small on flop. I bet 175, then check the turn. If V is on some PP or SC this allows him to float flop bet from our obvious AK. Then he can blow us off our hand by shoving the turn.

If he checks behind on turn, then we can shove river and still get value from AJ, KK, TT.

^^^^Very good line IMO

bet 1/3 pot on the flop and get it in if raised or on anyturn

c/c>bet 35-40% pot>c/r>shove( worst line by far). I dont even like c/r very much here. I think it looks stronger than everyone is giving credit for.