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5/5 Two Semi bluffing spots line check 5/5 Two Semi bluffing spots line check

05-13-2012 , 07:33 AM
Hand 1

Villain ($495) is a reg TAG, seen her slow play her strong hands when she's OOP. Told me she respects my game. She just sat down a few hands ago, and saw me win 2 big pots back to back. Jokingly commented I'm on a card rush.

Hero ($2100) bought in for $2000, and was stuck $1000 until 2 hands ago where I won 2 big pots. Playing a pretty laggish game, borderline maniac. Was on tilt previously when my QQ was called by A10o when I went all in preflop. Ace came on the river.

Hero is dealt 910 in MP+3, UTG calls and Villain in MP+2 raises to $30. I call, rest fold.

Flop ($75) 7 J K
Villain bets $45, hero calls.

Turn ($165) 3
Villain bets $100, Hero shoves

Hand 2
Villain ($850) is a relatively new player to the table, haven't seen him do anything out of line yet.

Hero ($1800) has no history with the villain. Same night as hand 1, table image should be the same as well.

Hero is dealt Q10 on HJ. Villain raises to $35 UTG, I call, blinds fold.

Flop ($80) A K 6
Villain bets $45, I call.

Turn ($170) 3
Villain bets $150, I shove.

What do you guys think of my play on both hands? Good spots to shove, or am I simply spewing money away? Thanks.
5/5 Two Semi bluffing spots line check Quote
05-13-2012 , 02:22 PM
Hand 1

165 Turn pot
100 Turn bet
420 Raise
320 If called
1,005 Total pot

If we give villain a range of AA, KK, JJ, AK-AQs, AK-AQo, KJs, our equity is 33%.

When we are called with this range, our pot expectation is $332 at a cost of our $420 shove, so the EV of being called is -$88 (332-420).

The EV of villain folding is winning the $265 pot.

I did the math, and if villain folds 25% of the time, that's the breakeven point.

-88 x 75% = -66
265 x 25% = 66.

So if villain folds more than that, shove, if not, don't shove.

Hand 2

I am pretty sure ConfusciousMachiavelliSuntzu said not to make big semibluffs when you're not sure you have Fold Equity because opponent could be a Calling Station, etc. Not saying you did that, but something to keep in mind

Last edited by warlockjd; 05-13-2012 at 02:29 PM.
5/5 Two Semi bluffing spots line check Quote
05-13-2012 , 03:52 PM
Hand 1: Fold preflop. The reason you should fold pre is because there is a raise and when the decision comes to you you are heads up with the preflop raiser. Now, if 1 or 2 other villains called THEN you can call with T9s. But at the time when action gets to you, you have no idea if you are going to be multiway and with T9s, you want to be multway for best odds.

As played, shove is fine, as Warlock showed, you only need V to fold 25% of the time and you should easily have that much fold equity with your shove.

Hand #2, fold pre AINEC.

One of the most profitable habits you can develop is to NOT make plays AGAINST UNKNOWNS. Seriously, just fold pre. You have no idea if you are up against a fit or fold nit, a super nit, a calling station, a clueless noob, etc. Gap concept applies here, so just fold QTo.

As played, because you have zero read and no clue what type of player V is, I don't like the shove for hand #2.

Based on these two hands, I think you have a pretty decent post flop game but you need work on your preflop game. I think you think that since you are so good post flop that you can be a little looser preflop. Trust me when I say that if you can better develop your preflop game then you will notice a 40%+ increase in your winrate easy.

The one simple tweak you need to add immediately imo is:

#1 You simply never play marginal holdings vs a raise unless you have incredible direct and implied odds (i.e. multiway action) and position

#2 You play straightforward ABC poker vs unknown players and fold marginal holdings vs their raises unless #1 comes into play.

implement these two simple rules and you should notice a substantial increase in your winrate.
5/5 Two Semi bluffing spots line check Quote
05-13-2012 , 03:56 PM
Crazy nit talk about H1. Raise pre is fine, standard flop and turn play.

H2 however is burning money long run. Would have to know that villain can lay down big hands.
5/5 Two Semi bluffing spots line check Quote
05-13-2012 , 04:00 PM
Hand 1: You can probably make it $250 with the same affect on the turn. Saves you some money the times she doesn't fold and you brick the river. I don't think it changes fold equity at all.

This line puts villain in a terrible spot with everything but sets, and maybe KJ. And based on bet sizing that seems unlikely.

Hand 2: Preflop is bad. This hand doesn't not play well at all versus and UTG opening range. I'd 3bet or fold it, and fold almost always.

Entire hand is just spew. Hits villains range pretty hard, none of our draws have good implied odds. Risking more than you need to on turn shoves. just a whole lot of bad.
5/5 Two Semi bluffing spots line check Quote
05-13-2012 , 04:06 PM
To add to what dgi is saying about calling raises preflop:

This is very general, but one of the biggest leaks of most live game players is that they are too passive preflop. They don't raise enough themselves, and call too many raises. What this results in for them is a situation where they are playing many more raised pots with with weak hands versus stronger ranges.

They are playing mostly with equity disadvantages and no or limited skill advantage. Some of them distinguish between in and out of position some don't.

If you start calling their raises pretty wide, you nullify a lot of that leak by giving them action when they should not be getting action.

Obviously that argument is simplistic and ignores factors like postflop tendencies...but in general it holds true.
5/5 Two Semi bluffing spots line check Quote
05-13-2012 , 05:33 PM
Hand 2 is a very bad spew no matter how you spin it...
5/5 Two Semi bluffing spots line check Quote

      
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