So this is a hand against a bunch of weak, passive players. 45-55 year old

~$600-$700 effective

limp, limp, limp. Hero Q Q from BU raises to $50, BB calls and 1 limper from MP calls

Flop($170) J 9 4

x x Hero bets $110, both call

Turn($500) 9

x x x

River($500) 2

BB(~$450 left) checks, MP AI for $300, Hero - ?

If MP is a fish, he’ll have enough AJ/KJ here that we need to flick in the call even if you think this type of player has no T8/QT bluffs in his range (which is probably fair). I think the odds of BB attempting a double check-raise trap are approximately nil.

Idk, probably in game I call but MP has 9X really often.

I call. you checked the turn so he probably thinks you have AK. If the other guy jams it's only like 150 on top but I think we're too strong to fold and their flop calls for 110 are probably a draw or a jack (mostly), not really 2nd pair when there's 3 players in the hand.

Really depends on the player and/or the vibe I get. My initial vibe was to call

Tough spot, against loose passive players.

You c-bet 2/3 pot and they both called. Gotta put Jx, 9x, QT and T8 in their ranges, but I'd think that sizing is going to weight them more towards value than draws. Just wondering if J9 doesn't check raise sometimes. Maybe not, when we c-bet large, or at least they'll x/r less often.

A lot of people will donk or check raise turn with trip 9's, but you checked back. Think I would have barreled there, and folded to a x/r, depending on the size. J9 definitely isn't worried about the BDFD, so that's a hand that a lot of players will get trappy with, and go for the x/r more than 9x.

Hard to see someone jamming Jx, hoping to get called by AK or TT, or blasting off with a missed draw. I think we're going to see 9x here a lot, as played. Wouldn't shock me to see J9.

Call or fold is really going to be read dependent, but against passive players who like to check-call, I think I'd lean towards folding here. We just have an over-pair, and this seems like an under-bluffed spot.

ETA - something I've noticed a lot with loose passive players is that they'll often donk flop and sometimes turn with marginal value, but they'll rarely donk when they turn thick value, especially when a BD draw also appears. They'll just keep checking in flow, expecting aggro opponents to keep betting, so they can check raise. When an aggro opponent checks back, they'll often try to compensate for lost value by jamming. This line from a passive rec-fish is very rarely a bluff or weak value hand.

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I would go with the read and fold as exploit. If not, what use is the read except for situations just like this one. Is a passive player going to shove a worse hand here, even a J which probably has a weak kicker? But basically it does not matter whether you call or fold. That said, most time when they shove you will be beat here. If they “bluffed” you or overvalued their hand who cares? Oh yeah but I would also bet/fold the turn.

i dont see how you can ever fold. your hand is underrepped.

dont understand checking the turn either with < pot remaining. id 1/2 pot bet turn and then shove river.

This is a good point. But our underrepped hand would be more of a concern vs aggressive players not passive ones. The player who limped AJ is now going to shove it on the river? Did he “trap” us with top pair? And so what if he did? We make money folding here (or you know what I mean). I bet we’re more likely to see KK than AJ. Passive players dont shove 60bbs on the river with AJ they check it down.

someone open limped and then just called a pf raise with KK? i dont think ive ever seen that in my entire poker career.

maybe a really tight passive guy has JJ here...such is life, pay the man his money.

and yes even a passive player here is going to shove AJ for value. it might even be a spazz bluff, which ive seen before from players i thought were "passive." passive players still bluff they just do it in weird spots that dont make sense.

If you’re folding Queens, what are you calling with on this runout—just JJ and 99? With this SPR??? That’s insane, lol.

Very routine call, even if we’d rather have AJ than QQ.

There was really no specific read against the villain, only a general read for everyone "this is a hand against a bunch of weak, passive players. 45-55 year old".

That basically describes about 98% of players.

When the turn got checked through, and this guy only has 300 left, I don't think it's uncommon for him to take a stab at it after the nine paired up or maybe he was betting for value after l/c'ing AJ (which weak players do).

If he was described as a tight player at the table then yes we should make an exploit fold, however I don't really see anything that's specific about him there but maybe that's just me.

What is the usual open size in this game? $20? $25?

I'd think the ranges get really compressed when hero opens 10x pre, even over 3 limpers, and especially when he c-bets 2/3 pot on the rainbow flop, creating less than 1 SPR on the turn. If we're calling the river jam, is it because we think V is betting a worse hand for value, like JX, or bluffing with a missed draw?

What worse value hands would V have here, and what could he be targeting in our range? AJs might have been an open raise or 3B pre from MP, not a limp. AJo should mostly be folded pre, but if it gets to the flop, it should possibly donk-bet or check-raise. Wouldn't a lot of JX just be happy to get to showdown, or happy to check-call?

What worse value hands could JX be targeting here? It seems like just TT. If V wants to get value from hero's ace-high or 88 and worse PP's, wouldn't he bet smaller?

If V is bluffing, what are his bluffs? QTs and T8s? Does T8 limp-call pre? We double-block QT. We unblock QTdd, but that combo might donk out on the turn when he picks up the BDFD to go with the OESD. In fact any QT or T8 combo might donk turn when the board pairs 9's, to try and rep 9x, and to try to slow hero down from making a big turn bet.

Hero could have been checking back turn for pot control with QQ-AA and TT, or for deception with JJ/99. How many weak / passive players are suddenly going to find the balls to jam river for 60% pot, to fold out hero's over-pairs? Worse PP's from TT on down and ace-high are really the only hands that are always folding here.

I'd think weak-passive players would be more likely to give up and check-fold the river than to donk-jam into the PFR with a missed draw, and would be happy to just check-call with JX.

He will probably show us JJ here given preflop action.

If I'm on my game I'm finding an exploit fold here but it is very hard.

Yes, SPR is a factor but not the only factor. It's also a multiway pot vs "weak passive" players. We can't just blindly follow SPR (which mostly applies preflop and on the flop in heads up pots anyway). SPR is defined only at the flop, no other streets. Yes, the SPR is low here on the flop, but it is multiway which should make us less likely to commit with one pair.

IF the read is correct, 44, JJ, J9, A9, T9, 98 are all possibilities and make more sense to me than AJ, KJ, or QJ. You might say this is MUBSy. But is he bluffing or value betting? What are the bluffs that a player like this would shove with? What are the value hands that we beat that would shove river out of position?

If we can't fold pairs to 60bb RIVER shoves in low-limit games full of bad rec players, god help us.

But like I said, if he just has a Jack, I don't even care.

I think one important thing to consider here:

Flop ($170): J 9 4

BB checks, MP checks, Hero bets $110, BB calls $110, MP (villain) - ...

I mean, does he really call here with many 9x hands? He certainly calls with any J, but a 9?


Made a fold here btw

Some people won't fold 1P to a flop c-bet, just on principle, because so many players c-bet at too high a frequency. I think weak-passive players can get sticky with middle pair against aggro V's they think are going to c-bet close to 100%.

I'm probably not folding 9x to 1/3 pot bet or less. He's definitely not folding J9, and may not fold any 9x combo that can go runner-runner to make a straight.

Personally, I'm almost pathological about x/r'ing J9 in V's spot on the flop, and I'm donk leading that board-pairing middle card on the turn a ton, whether I have it or not, so it would be hard for me to get to the river with J9 or 9X, but I'm the opposite of passive.

It makes more sense for a weak-passive player to have J9 or 9x here than it would for me, and it makes more sense than some over-played JX or a missed draw. I'd almost never be betting any JX or missed draw here, as V, and I'm pretty aggro.

I think you made a good fold. If V was a good, thinking player, I wouldn't show, but occasionally I might fold QQ face up, if I want to induce him to try that play as a bluff.