1200$ Effective
5/5

V - Tight solid player. But seems pretty passive/straight forward guy.

Hero Q J

Hero from MP opens to 20$, V from BU calls

Flop($50) T 7 6

Hero bets $30, BU calls

Turn($110) 5

Hero bets $75, BU calls

River($260) 6

Hero - ???


Any reason to bet big? We are targeting draws. Busted club draws Ax etc and maybe some Tx.

$100 enough?

Is there any chance you could fold out Tx or 7x by betting big, in your opinion?

FLOP - just check OOP or c-bet smaller. Prefer a check. We can check-call or check-raise here. Could go either way, but since V is going to have more 2P+ on this board, I'd probably just check-call.

TURN - the 5s is a brick that doesn't hit our range and changes nothing since 98 was already there on the flop. I think our made hands, over-pairs and best draws would over-bet the pot, or check for pot control. Betting 2/3 pot looks like you just want V to go away so you don't have to hit your draw.

RIVER - Ew. Yuck. 98 was there on the flop. 76 and 65 are now boats. Spades got there, but it's hard for us to rep spades when we bet so big on the flop.

How many AXcc combos can he have when four of the clubs are accounted for, that don't 3B pre, and don't raise flop or turn? Seems like four or five combos, at most, and maybe just A2-A4.

Not sure he's folding much TX that gets to the river. TXss is a flush. It's mostly just TX of diamonds or hearts, but his combos of T9 and T8 block the flopped straights. Can't see him folding much TX here.

V called our raise pre, called a 60% pot c-bet, and a >2/3 pot barrel. I think I'd just give up and check turn. He doesn't appear to be in a folding mood.

Check flop. Can check raise or check call, both are better than betting.

As played I think you can half pot the river, overpairs would bet that to get value from Tx, and i think Tx mostly calls, but could get some folds from Tx and folds from hands like 87 or Axcc Kxcc.

Obviously not the most ideal hand to bluff with otr, but i think youll probably get a fold >33% with a half pot bet.

I am almost certain this specific hand is a check/give-up. And I HATE check/give-ups!!!

Generally backdoor flushes favor the aggressor, but not necessarily here, since V can have all the AsTs/KsTs/QsTs/JsTs/Ts9s/Ts8s hands. (He can’t have the As2s/As3s/As4s hands we can have, but like—as said, in turns of flushes, if we do have an advantage at all, at most it’s a small one.)

And we block his call-call-fold hands…Yeah, I’m fine with flop and Turn bets (eh—flop bet should be smaller, we just want to fold out his Ah5h stuff), but this River’s got to be a give-up.

What is your image? If it's tight/solid, bet $125. If you are looser or have been caught bluffing, etc., give it up.

I'm fine with flop/turn.

This is a good point about the BD flushes usually favoring the bettor. I agree that V could also have a lot of them. I'd add A9ss and A8ss, and 98ss that was a flopped straight. He could also show up with K9, Q9, and Q8, maybe J9, J8, J7. His range could be pretty wide on the BTN, and include a lot of BD flushes that were combo draws on the flop.

Without counting all the combos he might have that we don't, and vice-versa, it looks pretty even in the BD flush department. I just hate bluffing with missed clubs here, when we could show up with straights, flushes, and even some boats.

Maybe V over-folds top pair and ace-high / king-high, for the same reasons - he could have so many stronger hands. But he could have a lot of strong hands that are never folding. And if he's sticky, or able to work out how rarely we're going to get here with a super-nutted hand, he might hero-call with TX.

If we put 76 and 65 into his range, I'm not even sure I'd value-bet a straight or weak flush here. I'd probably just check-call. I'd bet small with the nut flush, and only bet big with a boat.