12am
Friday

V is 35 yr ish drunk who joined my table which is now 5 handed. BB $850 Has been playing every hand for about 25mins. Playing pretty aggro

Hero. KQss. Early 20s BTN $650 pretty tired and about to go home and a bit tilted at this point for not leaving sooner and sleeping. Been folding every hand since V sat down, shouldn't have any reads on me.

UTG+1 raises to 30, one caller, I call, V raises to 110, original raiser calls, another call then I shove AI. V calls and all others fold.

How bad or okay is this shove and what hand range would you assign villain. V talked alot during the game he had a mate sit next to him, overall he was pretty funny. Before he called my Ai shove he said okay I'll donate to you some cos you're a nice guy.

KQs is strong enough that even if villain is only calling the top 25% of hands your still better then 50/50. If he is playing drunk maniac his raising range is way wider and his calling range is wider then 25%. It is always a big gamble though because even against a 100% range your only about 60/40.

This move is still bad, not because of main villain but because of two other opponents who called the $110. They will turn up with AK/big pairs/other hands they don't fold too often for this to be profitable long term. When they do call they are going to be ahead and mostly have you crushed.

Ok thanks for the reply, I found the information helpful.

5 handed I'm 3 betting here otb. It's pretty tough to rep all that much here after flatting on the button, imho.

I disagree, it depends on the other two opponents. The times they do call our shove can be easily offset by times that everyone folds. This is assuming they are likely to fold, which is a fair assumption for certain players. They might call 110 from a maniac, but they will be much less inclined to call 500$ more from a tighter player.

I should have 3 bet, I agree.

How likely is it that villains put me on AK after I shove like this? I'd say the average player (here in the Sydney casino that I play at) would think to himself "he's prolly got AK".

Why would you 3b and freeze out the fish in the BB?

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He played every hand since he sat down i.e. for the past 30mins or so.
He insta-called every 3bet. I remember laughing when he so casually announced these insta-calls to 3bets and generally playing every hand. He had 1K chips in his pocket, gave off the impression of donating but instead was winning alot of pots. He wasn't the type to freeze up versus betting strength for instance, wasn't scared money and wanted to play and have fun with ATC

Now that I consider your question however, I'm not sure what would be the preferred play. 3bet vs call.
Like I said before however, I was tilting quite a bit and the only thought I had was "I almost certainly have to be ahead of his range and want to take this pot right now". But as per above posts, I didn't realise I was only like a 60-40 favourite or probably near a coin flip, and that also I wasn't repping much which is true.

Probably I was also thinking that I didn't want to call the $110 3bet by BB in a pot with 2 other players with KQs and that I'd rather fold in that spot. Actually again, I'm not sure what I think about that. Prolly my fishy senses acting up.

Shipping is likely to be +ev, but probably not more than flatting.

With 20% equity you need folds 45% of the time to break even, 25% equity 38% folds, 30% equity 28% folds, 35% equity 15% folds (technically the calculation is vs 1 caller).

It is difficult to assign the drunk a range with the description provided. Do his ATC antics include situations where he is 3b squeezing a UTG raiser with 2 callers OOP? Probably not, but against a worst case calling range of: TT+ and AQ-AK, you still have 31% equity. Villain probably folds half the time.

Since UTG/caller didn't ship it is reasonable exclude AA/KK, so against either them you will have at least 30% equity if called. Both probably fold 2/3rds of the time.

With everyone folding 33% of the time and you having 33% equity when called, shipping is over the threshold of being +ev. But not by much, it is worth maybe $60. That is not a strong incentive to ship $620, especially when you could call $80 to win $360.

Aside from the great odds this is an ideal spot to call: close out the action, have the best absolute and relative position, and UTG/caller have decapitated ranges making them easier to play against postflop.

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Thanks for that, particularly the mathematics, appreciate it. I'll definitely be thinking about these things going forward...

V showed A10
V wins pot with Ace high.

Before the flop, he showed me his cards and I was like "you're ahead, you're good" to which he responds, "f*ck off, really? Nah, f*ck off *laughs* sorry man, I wanted to pay you off, sorry man" *drinks some beer*

I think u should fold this another two guys (any reads on them?)might have better than ur kq,if they fold to 3 bet I shove

Looking back at the hand you're absolutely right. The initial raiser showed the first caller AJ.. I remember now.
But in general I also think they would beat KQo from their actions. Tilting is my biggest leak right now, it only happens once in 20 sessions but when it does happen, it's bankroll threatening in that I jump to the baccarat tables.. lol

U should learn to stop or game when u play not optimal,just quit ur table and and make something else.

Really? I would think the other players in the hand have something good close to 0% of the time.

The chances they have something big are obviously reduced, but just calling down against a drunk aggro maniac is not an exotic move. Particularly UTG+1, who raised in the first place, is likely to flat the $110 with big hands expecting it to get him heads up with the maniac.

Hero's EV against the maniac isn't huge, it doesn't take another villain getting involved with a better hand very often to kill hero's profits.

Meh shove is fine there. So much dead money in the pot, and you block kk/qq/aq/ak. Also, a 3 bet of that sizing is pretty weak, and the other players dont really have much either.