Relevant stacks:
Hero (BB) $1000
Villain (UTG) $500

Preflop: Hero is dealt K6
3 limps, SB checks, Hero checks.

Flop ($20): 543
SB checks, Hero bets $30, UTG calls, everyone else folds.

Turn ($80): J
Hero bets $80, UTG calls

River ($240): 3
Hero???

UTG is somewhat selective preflop (unless its suited) and we've been friendly so that might give me some FE. He is super passive, never bluffs, and calls down with almost any draw postflop. Any 5 or better, pair + draw, FD, or even naked straight draw that connected with this flop he's calling 2 streets with. On the river I think most of his range is made up of one pair hands that may or may not have had a draw, and some NFD combos. So that means I should have checked the turn I guess, but as played I gotta bomb the river right? Or wrong?

why the overbet on the flop? i'd make it fifteen then you can make it 50 on the turn if you still want to pot it and save yourself monies...

ya i guess bomb river and rep exactly A2, A6 or set... i'd probably check back though just because i don't know if this guy will fold something like nines often enough seeing that alot of draws did miss.

I agree that u bet a bit much otf. The overbet could put u in a bad spot if raised esp on a flop as coordinated as this one. Yes, u have flush and straight draws but if u get a lot of action on this flop one of them may not be live.

As played, I think u can take sets+ out of his range by the river since he prob puts in a raise at some point on a ds board. Will this opp fold a hand like 65 or 77 with u betting 3 streets? If so, I'd bet about 150 otr since u have very little showdown value. If this bets succeed ~40% of the time then u show profit.

honestly, from your desription of this villain as basically a weak/ super passive that will chase any draw down then there is no reason to bomb river. In fact a very small bet may do the job just as well. this type will just muck if he missed and if he comes over the top on the riv you get to get away cheap since you know he is never bluff raising a missed draw.

Thoughts?

I think a small bet will get a fold from the missed flush draws and 6x. The question is whether hero wants to try to push villian off slightly stronger hands like 77 that would call a smaller bet. If villian was paying attention, hero's psb/psb line looks really strong to this point.

We have 3 options.

1) C/f -- probably the worst of the 3 because we have a read that villain will call 2 streets with draws in his hand. If villain has 66/77, he's certainly checking back. I don't this villain is likely to value bet this thin.

2) Over-bet bluff -- keeps telling the same story for the 3rd street in a row. The flop is definitely a good one for our position (BB), so it's believable that we've smacked it esp. given we've bet the pot on both the flop&turn.

3) Value-bet bluff -- after betting the flop & turn, we've gotten so much money in the pot, we could put out a bet saying "please call us" (post-oakish).


What have you done in the past with low PP in the BB. Do you check your option or raise limpers? Do we have any other reads on villain in regards to hero calls & hero folds?

The only value hands we're repping are 33, 44, 55, 35, 34, 67. A2 really turns into a bluff catcher so I think we'd c/c that OTR. This is such a narrow range of hands..

****ty spot to be in, would've checked at some point before this spot. But since we're here...

I'm over-bet bluffing something like $190. In villains eyes -- it's a calculated number ($200 straight looks more bluffy). Being that it's under the $200 benchmark, it looks more like we want a call but is still a big bet. Anything over $200 i think looks like we're trying to buy the pot.

Also, if we're looked up it's good for meta-game purposes. We'll be called lighter by other people at the table witnessing this hand.

Like everyone else: I'dve gone with 15 dollars on the flop and 30-40 dollars on the turn.

Frizzled, you make some good posts that have shown high level thinking. If your opponent is generally can pickup that you're a decent thinker, he's far more likely to look you up light. Also, if he's calling with draws, you may even win ~10% of the time w K high (your hand does have some showdown value).

In his spot, were I your villain, I'd expect a decent thinker to be playing a draw exactly as you played it to try and generate FE (thats the way I play it alot of the time). Also he's a LOP calling is what he does.

I do more jarring stuff to throw off the system in spots like this. If you're gonna bluff, I'd suggest either 135 or 350. But the difference between those two is VERY villain dependent and VERY history dependent. (Its the kindof hand where A high calldowns do not feel so out of line from a good villain)

c/c is prob best. Admit we made a mistake by betting turn, and save yourself multiple hours of winrate here. LOPs like to call. He's very out of position and so a hand like 66-JJ is a distinct part of his range; and one that is likely not to fold very much.

every draw has missed so whether or not this is a good spot to bluff is really player dependent, I get from your discription that villian would play his 1 pair hands and his draws this way and will call you with the one pair handsbut will fold the nut flush draw I think the value bet bluff is best unlees you know something more. 170

Unless he is a calldown station with any 5x, then i would have 60% pot---60%pot----overbet river once i know he is not slowplaying (or think so)

Its gonna be close i think. Checking river could be best vs a passive calling type. (i just hate to after betting so big both streets.) Possible to overbet river also in the event he is the type to fold to large bets (due to sheer size) rather than sniff out polarization.

I really like to underbet flops like this to start also, which narrows their range to weak and reduces slowplays to a minimum. Then i can embark on a barreling plan. Betting this large he is going to slowplay most hands and even be scared with 2 pair possibly.

Fire river if you have any balls whatsoever.

Your range is wide open. His range is like pair+SD, FD (which missed), FD+pair, 66-TT, maybe some stupid 5x hands (honestly can't think of any).

Honestly the only hand good enough to call your bet on the river is like Jcxc.

With the villain being a passive player, calling two psbs has to indicate some strength in his hand right? These players can be unbluffable in spots like this so i feel like the best play is to check the river, and as Massk said you have showdown value vs. his lesser draws.

If he does indeed have a draw of some sort he will most likely check behind. if he has some type of made hand, hes not going anywhere after calling two pot sized bets. The only hands that your bluff stands to fold out are AcXc(which is like what 5 possib combos?). against a player like you described, its not worth the bluff IMO. the range that he will fold seems to narrow.

also, I agree with smaller sizing on the flop so the hand is easier to play.

pot river

I think you should figure what amount can you bet to get him to fold small over pairs (OTF) like 77, 88 99 etc as well as 5x and bet that amount. If he cant fold those hands I might just check here, the FD possibility is reduced somewhat due to our hand, he can have 6x here a bit too though again you have one in your hand.

Think about if the villain is calling the on the turn too does he pitch small one pair hands when the J comes on the turn or no?

bet sizing is too big though IMO,

What you did and many others do is you guys are betting using a system named "Martingale", familiar with that suicide method?
Betting more and more on each subsequent round in the hope opponent will fold. But that's just another losing strategy that bring me and others our daily income. Thank you!

AT,

lol dude your posts are the best

WTB moderator ban.

So are you one of those old crusty regs who bets $20 OTF $20 OTT and $20 OTR then turns up his top pair and SCREAMS when he gets rivered "HOW DID YOU CALL ME DOWN YOU ONLY HAD TEH SECOND PAIR!!!!!!"

1/2 to 3/4 pot river, its very difficult for him to have something really strong like a book or a straight imo since he only flatted turn on such a wet board, seems like some sort of pair + combo draw or something. And you can easily rep a book here.

Always_tilting's post is a little extreme, but he has a point. just throwing huge bet after huge bet trying to get a call station to fold isnt exactly going to boost your hourly rate.

i doubt OP was consciously using the martingale system, but either way i dont like betting pot 2-3 times with draw/air. not against this type of villain anyway.

As discussed countless times in the past: Live Players Like to Call!

They call too much, way too much. This seems like the exact kind of spot where I bet and get a naked original top pair rammed up my yang. Erego why I like a good overbet (may get some folds, finally) or a value bet, IF I know the total dollar amount gets alot of 1 pair hands to fold from that player.

The question you should be asking yourself on river is, can I bluff my villain off his hand? I think you answer that question in your post. If you think his range on river is mostly 1 pair w combo draw type hands don't bluff. If you think he can have a naked draw a decent amount of time make a thin value bluff 100-140.

At first I was like WTF always_t? Now I'm like ROFL.