5/5, $650 eff

Villain is loose straightforward rec player, bets big when she has a big hand, haven’t seen her bluff at all. Doesn’t fold TPGK+ hands. Tilted due to losing a big pot in the last hour.

Hero with J9 in SB
UTG2 opens to 20, Villain in MP1 calls, CO calls, Hero calls

Flop (85): 987
Checks to V, V bet 45, CO folds
Hero and UTG2 call

Turn (220): 3
Checks to V, who bets 200
Hero jams for 580

Reasonable to jam here? Heads up vs V, it’s a clear c/c, then c/f river if unimproved. With UTG2 still in, I was looking to protect my equity by folding out his overpairs and NFDs, bothers of which counterfeit a significant portion of my river outs.

Fold pre, it's just insanely hard to realise your equity oop to 4 opponents.

As played seems like a good raise/fold candidate otf, ott calling > raise, seems like you have 0 fold equity against this almost pot sizing

Call pre is fine.

Lead flop, you need to protect your hand against this many opponents and if you get raised that's fine, you can just fold.

Your reasons for jamming turn don't make sense, why would UTG2 ever have the NFD? Why does him having an overpair matter?

:grunch:

I’d fold pre, fwiw. People may call me a nit though.

I’d probably lead this flop. There are way too many turn cards you don’t want to see and it’s important to deny equity to overcards.

I don’t understand your reasoning on the turn. You say V plays straightforward and can’t fold TPGK. Well, V bombed the flop and turn. What does that tell us about V’s likely range as well as the amount of fold equity you’re likely to have when you jam?

V’s very clearly not folding so what’s you’re raise for? To fold out UTG’s sets, two pair or straights that won’t be able to fold if you bink your club and jam river because the pot is so large?

Trying to fold out UTG2 not V.

I guess overpair doesn’t really matter as it only counterfeits 3 of my outs, but he can certainly have bigger FDs here, all broadway combos with T. He could even c/c with AQ with 2overs and BDFD, as I’ve seen him making some light flop floats. We want to give him as bad odds as possible to draw OTR.

I guess it’s true UTG is paying me off with 2p/sets if I improve on river,. Maybe I’m being MUBsy but I’m basically drawing dead if UTG2 floated with a bigger FD, and wanted to protect my equity in a large pot.

Call pre is not fine. It’s a losing play.

Flop is good.

Ott seems fine

So that's 3, possibly 4 combos in probably like, I don't know, 50 to 100 combos he could possibly have? Let's be generous and assume his range is only 40 combos. If you assume for the sake of argument that you have 40% equity against V, jamming loses you an additional $75 versus calling. If your shove folds out UTG2, that only matters if the river is one of your outs that would otherwise be dirty, which is at most 25% of the time. So multiplying this together, (4/40) * 25% = it matters that you got rid of UTG 2.5% of the time. The pot would need to be $3,000 before that justified the $75 you lost from jamming. And I've made many generous assumptions here (one that I haven't mentioned yet is that we should probably discount those combos because UTG2 may lead turn with such a crushing draw, I'm also not factoring in the extra money from the times UTG2 calls with a hand that can't win, etc etc). Thinking that it's worth making a -EV jam to protect your hand here is wrong by like an order of magnitude.

Not reasonable to jam. In fact this raise is a -EV shove. I'm not concerned about UTG2, infact, i welcome UTG2 with both arms. If i am UTG2, I'll still be calling with most of my NFD and fold maybe AcKc,AcQc and Ac2c. How many combos do we beat vs how many combos beat us if we the club comes? Either way, I still hope for the club to come and I'll jam it in anytime on this particular board.

Even if UTG2 is in this hand, it is still a clear c/c and fold RIVER if unimproved.

I would keep UTG2 in the pot because the pot odds will be more juicier, and there is more money to be made when we hit our flush.

Ching Ching

pre is fine in live poker where people make enough post flop mistakes IMO

flop is fine, please don't lead this hand on this board into 4 people

turn shove seems okay in theory, we always have outs and we probably have a bit more fold equity than we might think. hard to really mess up the turn unless you fold.

I get lol pot odds and lolol live poker but I'm meh on the call pre here because we're not closing the action and just so hard to play profitably oop

also meh on the flop lead into 3 other villains. we're bloating the pot oop while having no idea where we're at and we're going to have to check/fold almost every turn

def agree that jamming turn is crazy. Villain's sizing is a tell that he's got a big hand that he is looking to charge/deny draws with and I just can't see him folding to our line

Oh I read the hand as us being in BB somehow, I guess cause BBs preflop fold isn't listed.

Yeah, it should probably be a fold in the SB. Getting squeezed is nasty. I might still call sometimes with a passive BB and bad players in the hand, but it's marginal at best.

Call pre is marginal but not really awful. Can't say I haven't done it, but if I am playing my B+ game or above, I fold.

I would lead this flop as well, but I can get behind a check/call there too. I do not like your turn play though. We have to remember that V is a field caller pre, and he continues to bet the turn large after getting called OTF in 2 spots, one of which is the PFR. I think your fold equity vs both is low here so I don't like the play versus what looks like a clear value range from V (UTG2 I would think will fold almost his whole range to the jam).