5/5 effective 550. Some serious dynamics going on.
UTG asian woman on a heater (3K+) limps. She is scared money, never slowplays, always afraid of getting raised, show down monkey, etc.
Hero HJ Young white guy (550) im Playing very snug/TAG but I’ve raised her limps a number of times already and I’m trying to give her the impression I’m bullying her. We have AKsc make it 25.
BUT thinking Korean young guy (1500) is playing very LAG especially in position, he floats very wide, and he’s been bombing big vs weak ranges and getting lots of folds. He calls.
3 ways
(85) flop AT3dhh
X hero bets 50. Call. Call.

Now I think BUT would call me cbet with any Ace, any KQ KJ QJ, any flush draw, and probably any set, possibly any ten. And UTG could have a similar range minus the 2pair+ combos since she would x/r those.

(235) turn 8c
X x BUT bets 175. Fold. Hero x/r to 475 all in.
(I believe BUT would always bet KQ, QJ, KJ when checked to here so now do we x/c and risk getting outplayed otr or do we just drop the hammer and pick up the pot?)

Also how’s the line in general?
Thanks! ^_^

I like this line alot with our stacksizes and ongoing dynamics. We got the perfect brick turn and checking it over to button telegraphing we gave up on the pot after C-betting the flop. Then we trap him with the check-jam in his face.

We could also choose to fastplay this a little bit more and bet more for pure value on the flop considering alot of hands can continue here even against a big bet.

is villain betting A9 or worse here? doubtful.

against a range of TT,33,AQs-ATs,A8s,A3s,KhQh,QhJh,Qh9h,Jh9h,9h7h,7h6h,5h4h,AQo-ATo this x/r is just about breakeven given the price we are laying to call.

if villain is also bluffing all broadway gutters and double gutters here we lose $ by not allowing him to continue bluffing those hands on the river.

Not sure how you get outplayed in a 600 pot with 300 behind on the river. I suppose it is possible. Just push all in on the river to any card. You might get lucky and have the button fold his 2 pair to your obvious FD coming in.

Meh, most villains shut down on the river anyway unless they bink with this big of a pot and small amount of money behind relative to the pot so i am not a fan of flatting his turnbet with a strong but vulnerable one pair hand.

most flushdraws are some kind of pair + flushdraw or flushdraw + straight draw and getting about 3 to 1 on the turn a lot of those hands are just going to call it off getting close to or exactly odds to draw to their hand given this player type. we make more by allowing the bluffs to continue than with the slight edge in equity we have here given the price we are laying.

If your assumptions are true and he’s floating flop and betting turn too wide then this is the best line available.

I understand your point. But i just dont think many villains will keep bluffing on the river if they whiff considering the small stacksizes behind if we flat the turn. If we had deeper stacks behind and villain had more percieved fold equity on a river bluff i am on board with your line.

even if v will have the correct price to call off with a combo draw, we would still prefer to get the money in before he sees the river in this case. any time u get more money in with an equity advantage thats a good thing.

allowing him to bluff on the riv is interesting, and thats the part where im afraid to let him outplay me. suppose we make our plan to x/c the riv.
well what if the riv is: K, Q, J, T, 9, any heart. now we risk facing a bet from a hand that beats us, and its possible he would always check back a hand worse than AK, or maybe he would sometimes bluff at those cards, or maybe he would overbluff at those cards. we cant really know

there would be more than half pot remaining on the river. it's enough to bluff at the pot. our hand was strong enough to go for 2 streets and we checked turn. given player type we might as well continue to show weakness and flat call here.

and if he bluffs the river we get the money in with 100% equity.

so because we are afraid to let the villain outplay us we should just allow them to play perfectly against us and fold out bluffs, call off combo draws and his entire value range?

we are potentially already beat on the turn. when we x/r the turn we are removing the potential for villain to make a mistake here. given our read on villain that he bombs it vs perceived weakness and we have telegraphed weakness on the turn we should continue to telegraph weakness and call here. we are not meaningfully denying equity vs most flushdraws here that are going to bet the turn as a semi-bluff.

do we really care about allowing a hand drawing to 4 or 8 outs to see the river if villain is likely to shove for half pot with those hands if they miss? no.

we have to consider if our read on villain's tendencies are correct. we show weakness on the turn when we check. then when we go from check to $475 we're saying actually we're not weak at all we're super nutted. we need to tell a consistent story throughout the whole hand to take advantage of this player's aggressiveness.

what is more likely, that villain overbluffs turn and overbluffs river, or says hmm what can he be bluffing with here ok QhJh i'm going to call it off with a pair as a bluff catcher?

this is almost like a value bluff spot. i don't particularly like this line of bet the flop x/r the turn with one pair at all.

if you actually think btn is betting all his gutters ott then obviously raising is a mistake. if you think hes betting hhxx hands then x/raise gets better.

But it’s the same thing don’t u see?
If we get all in the money in on the turn, then if he hits he stacks us and if he misses we stack him.
If we wait til the riv, then if he hit we get stacked, and if he missed he bluffs it all off and we stack him.
So why does it matter?
Only thing go consider is that sometimes he could shut down riv when he misses, and in that case we lose out on money we would have won had we put it all in on the turn.

NH

Hyperknit : I’m just confused by the table dynamic. Why is this guy planning to float you in this spot? Have you shown a lot of weakness in this session? You’re a strong player, not some spot he can push around at will. It doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. Also, the sticky Asian lady is in the hand too and if she flops something BUT V won’t even get a chance to float. She will act first and could easily donk if she hits the flop and she covers him too.

That’s why I feel he can be stronger here than we might otherwise expect. I just wouldn’t expect him to try to call wide pre and float flop as often as he might normally.

The line overall is fine and perhaps I’m leveling myself into just a call versus your x r because of the dynamics. But unless the kid is just exuding hubris, I fear he could be strong here.

Why not just bet turn? I understand why you are running this type of line but why with one of your best 1 pair AX combos to have? Do you really think bu v is never checking back ott with any part of his range? Are you just checking your entire value range to x/r here? I would save checking lines for a different part of your range. I think expecting bu v to choose to bluff in this spot mw would be a stretch. If you your reads are spot on and bu v is that spewy then go ahead and x/r but I would be surprised if that was the case. I would expect a "thinking" player to recognize someone with a snug image on that type of texture and choose not to just bluff this spot with entire continuing range.

No not necessarily.
You must also make the further assumption that he will overbluff those missed gutters on the riv when checked to.
Because if he only bets the river when he makes his straight, then we’re just letting him freeroll us

+1

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good questions, no doubt were getting thin here with AK in a 3 way pot. But it feels fine given the dynamic. But could we do this with AQ? now thats pretty thin. what about AJ?

Nh

Spoiler:

I tanked for about 2 minutes on the turn before I moved all in at which point v insta-called beating me into the pot.
River was a brick and I table my hand like it’s the nuts. V insta-mucks and starts yelling at me how it’s the worst play ever

I reckon he’s less of a thinker than we originally feared